Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Holds $115 as ETF Flows Eye a Move Back to $150

Solana (SOL-USD) price: trading between $115 and $150 as flows, holders and ETFs diverge

Spot picture for Solana (SOL-USD): price compression after a violent shakeout

At 30 January 2026 levels, Solana (SOL-USD) trades around $117–$120, after failing to hold the $140–$150 area earlier in the month. Different sources you provided place SOL between $115 and $126, with a recent high near $150 and a weekly drop of about 7%. The market is clearly undecided. Buyers defend the low-$110s to high-$110s, while every push toward $125–$130 meets supply. The debate now is whether this is a pause before another attempt at $150–$200, or the front leg of a deeper correction toward $97–$110.

Macro and policy backdrop: UK stablecoin rules, Bitcoin rollups and cleaner structure

The regulatory backdrop is shifting from chaos toward structured oversight, which matters for Solana (SOL-USD) because it hosts stablecoins and DeFi. The UK House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee has opened an inquiry into the stablecoin regime proposed by the Bank of England and the FCA. The working plan targets a full framework by late 2026 and includes systemic stablecoins holding deposits at the Bank of England and potentially accessing a liquidity backstop. That gives large institutions a clearer path to use on-chain dollars without guessing the rules.
At the same time, infrastructure like Citrea’s Bitcoin ZK-rollup mainnet is launching BTC-backed lending, structured products and ctUSD, a dollar stablecoin backed by cash and short Treasuries with an initial DeFi liquidity goal near $50 million. That pulls part of the speculative and yield-seeking flow toward Bitcoin-adjacent rails. The SEC closing its case against Gemini after Earn users were repaid removes a long-running enforcement overhang. Combined, this environment lowers broad regulatory tail risk and improves the backdrop for high-throughput L1s like Solana, while also increasing competition for capital.

On-chain demand: Solana (SOL-USD) activity surges despite price drawdown

On-chain, Solana (SOL-USD) is not trading like a dying chain. Weekly transaction counts rose from roughly 466 million in late December to about 765 million in the latest week, a 64% jump while price has slipped from the mid-$140s toward the high-$110s. That means execution demand is rising into a selloff.
New addresses are also exploding. Around 10.2 million new wallets per day are transacting on Solana for the first time. In prior cycles, rising first-time senders during a bearish phase often coincided with late-cycle liquidations and preceded recoveries. New participants tend to absorb coins dumped by short-term or leveraged holders. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it shows that adoption is ramping while price is cleaning out excess.

ETF flows into Solana (SOL-USD): $1B AUM and first sign of fatigue

ETFs tied to Solana (SOL-USD) have accumulated about $1 billion in assets. Over the last week alone, net inflows were roughly $9 million despite price weakness. This is classic behavior from systematic or institutional allocators averaging into a strategic L1 at lower prices.
However, spot Solana ETFs have just recorded their first daily outflow in almost two weeks, about $2.2 million. That is the first clean sign that even relatively patient ETF holders will trim exposure when technicals weaken. The weekly picture still shows accumulation, but the flow profile is no longer a one-directional bid and that tempers short-term upside momentum.

Validator economics and decentralization risk reshape Solana (SOL-USD) premium

Validator dynamics are the main structural negative. Solana’s validator count has dropped by about 68% from its 2023 high. Rising hardware and bandwidth costs and zero-fee competition have pushed many smaller operators offline. Stake has become more concentrated in a smaller set of validators.
For Solana (SOL-USD) this hits the valuation multiple. Perceived decentralization directly influences how much tail-risk institutional investors assign to censorship, outages, or governance capture. Performance remains strong and throughput high, but a shrinking, more concentrated validator set forces the market to demand a higher risk premium unless it is offset by exceptional usage and developer growth.

Risk sentiment, leverage and macro spillovers into Solana (SOL-USD)

The current drawdown is also about macro and leverage, not only Solana. Bitcoin recently fell to a two-month low and roughly $800 million of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours. At the same time, Microsoft stock dropped about 11% after earnings, hitting risk assets broadly.
In that tape, Solana (SOL-USD) behaves like high-beta infrastructure. When equities and large-cap crypto are being sold across the board, SOL drops harder than BTC and ETH, and perp liquidations amplify each move. That explains why you see a 7% weekly decline in SOL alongside rising on-chain activity. The key issue is whether forced deleveraging is close to finished or whether one more capitulation leg is still ahead.

Technical structure: Solana (SOL-USD) trapped between $115 support and $150–$200 resistance

From a chart perspective, Solana (SOL-USD) sits in a tight conflict zone. Price is hovering just above a support shelf near $115. That level has been defended repeatedly and currently marks the lower end of the short-term range. Immediate resistance sits around $123–$125, which used to be a demand zone, with the next band of supply clustered at $132–$136. The previous breakout area around $150 remains the key psychological cap, and above that, the path reopens toward the $200 region if momentum returns.
Patterns on the 4-hour chart show price trading within a descending broadening wedge, usually a bullish formation if the lower boundary holds. Some readings highlight a “W”-type reversal with SOL above its 20-period moving average and the RSI hovering around 50. Other views show the MACD sliding into the sell zone as volume rises, which is normally corrective. The simple read is this: hold $115 and reclaim $123–$125 with conviction and the path toward $132, $136 and eventually $150 is live again. Lose $115 and then $110 and the probability of a move toward roughly $97 increases sharply, fully resetting the last upside leg.

Competing narratives: speculative presales versus Solana (SOL-USD) as core infrastructure

The sources you gave also show where speculative capital is rotating while Solana (SOL-USD) corrects. DeepSnitch AI markets a five-agent intelligence stack for traders, with SnitchGPT, Token Explorer and AuditSnitch already running internally. The presale has raised about $1.4 million at $0.03755, up nearly 150%, with marketing language around “100x–1000x” potential and bonus codes that can turn a $30,000 allocation into roughly 3.2 million DSNT tokens on paper. Digitap’s TAP token has rallied roughly 263% in presale to about $0.0454, with expectations to tick higher to $0.0467 and staking yields advertised up to 124% APR. Bitcoin Hyper has raised more than $31 million for a Bitcoin L2 that plans to use Solana-style speed to make BTC fully programmable.
Professionally, these are classic high-beta side bets. They can deliver extreme percentage moves but they carry far higher execution, liquidity and regulatory risk than Solana (SOL-USD) itself. They do not compete with Solana on core metrics like total value settled, developer traction, validator set, or ETF penetration. Instead, they either sit on top of L1s like Solana or try to mirror the same value-add from a smaller base. The fact that presales are still attracting capital while SOL is 20–30% below its highs tells you that risk appetite in crypto remains intact; the question is how much of that capital rotates back into SOL once the presale hype fades.

Relative context: Solana (SOL-USD) versus Sui, Dogecoin and other majors

Compared with other majors, Solana (SOL-USD) sits between blue-chip and high-beta alt. Sui trades near $1.32 after a daily drop close to 6%, with some forecasts aiming for $3.36 by end-2026, roughly 153% upside from here. Its parallel execution and Move-based environment are solid, but it remains an earlier-stage chain with far smaller ETF footprint and user base than Solana. That means higher theoretical upside but more fundamental risk.
Dogecoin trades around $0.124–$0.127 on the monthly view after failing to hold a move to $0.15. Some commentary frames this as consolidation before a push toward $0.20, but MACD signals are in the sell zone while volume rises, a configuration that often signals distribution. Versus DOGE, Solana (SOL-USD) has clear advantages: throughput, a real DeFi and NFT stack, significant ETF participation, and strong developer presence. That matters when capital tightens and investors shift from pure meme beta to assets with actual economic activity.

Forward drivers for Solana (SOL-USD): conditions for a move back to $150–$200

For Solana (SOL-USD) to revisit $150 and then challenge $200 again, several drivers must align. On-chain, the current 64% jump in weekly transactions and the roughly 10.2 million daily new addresses need to continue and remain tied to real usage, not only speculative cycles. At the fund level, ETF flows must flip from mixed to decisively positive again after the recent $2.2 million daily outflow, confirming that the $110–$125 area is seen as attractive by large allocators.
Technically, price needs to keep $115 intact, convert $123–$125 from resistance into support, and then work through $132–$136. Only once those zones are reclaimed does $150 become a realistic near-term target instead of a distant memory. On the macro side, the $800 million liquidation event has to run its course and correlations with equity shocks, like the 11% decline in Microsoft, need to ease. When the global risk backdrop stabilizes, Solana’s high beta starts working as an asset, not a liability. Finally, the 68% drawdown in validator count must at least stop worsening. Even a flat trend in validator numbers would cool decentralization concerns and help preserve Solana’s risk premium.

Solana (SOL-USD) stance: high-risk buy on weakness with clear invalidation

Summing the data, the picture for Solana (SOL-USD) is not neutral. Usage is ramping, new addresses are exploding, and ETFs hold about $1 billion of SOL with net inflows on a weekly horizon. Price around $115–$120 sits below recent peaks but above the deeper $97–$110 support pocket. The macro flush that drove Bitcoin to a two-month low and wiped out around $800 million in leverage is severe but typical of late-stage corrections.
The counterpoints are significant. Validator concentration is a real fundamental risk. ETF flows have shown their first daily crack. Several time frames show MACD in sell mode and the loss of the $120–$125 demand band. If $115 breaks and $110 goes next, odds shift toward a test of roughly $97 and the bullish thesis for this leg fails.
Given that balance, the professional stance is a high-risk Buy on weakness rather than a passive Hold or a forced Sell. Accumulating Solana (SOL-USD) around $110–$120 with a strict invalidation below about $97 respects both the technical map and the fundamental data. Reclaiming and defending $123–$125 would reopen a path to $132, $136 and $150. A clean break of $115 and then $110 would signal that the market is not finished punishing late longs and that capital should be preserved rather than left exposed.

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