XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR Slam Into Lows As $92M Redemption Wave Smashes XRP Toward $1.70

XRP ETF XRPI, XRPR And XRP-USD: Price, Flows And Lawsuit Aftermath

XRPI And XRPR Sit On 52-Week Lows While XRP-USD Fights To Hold $1.70–$1.73

XRP-USD Price Structure: From $3.66 Peak To A Critical $1.70 Trendline

XRP-USD is trading around $1.70–$1.74 after losing the $1.80 support that had controlled price action since early January. The selloff has taken the token more than 50% below the July 2025 high near $3.66, a drawdown of roughly 44% from that peak to around $2.03 later in 2025 and then further weakness into January 2026.
On the daily chart, price now leans against an ascending trendline that originates at the June 2025 lows and previously cushioned the November correction near $2.30 and the December retest around $1.80. That same line now runs through the $1.70–$1.73 region. Any decisive close below $1.70 transforms this from a controlled pullback within an uptrend into a confirmed breakdown with room toward the $1.50 demand area mentioned by technicians.

XRP-USD Technicals: EMA Stack Lost And Momentum Still Favors Sellers

All major moving averages sit above spot. The 20-day EMA is clustered around $1.92, the 50-day near $2.00, the 100-day around $2.13, and the 200-day close to $2.26. With XRP-USD trading roughly 10–25% below that entire EMA block, the market is in a clean intermediate downtrend until at least the $1.90–$2.00 band is reclaimed on a daily close.
Momentum confirms the pressure. Daily RSI is parked in the high 30s (around 37–38), above panic levels but firmly below the neutral 50 line, which means sellers still control the tape rather than a completed capitulation. The Parabolic SAR remains above price near $1.94, aligning with the EMAs and reinforcing that every rally into the $1.80–$1.95 zone faces layered resistance instead of open air.

Intraday XRP-USD Action: $1.71 Low, $1.80–$1.85 Rejection, And A Weak Bounce

On lower timeframes, the structure is straightforward. Since January 28, XRP-USD has printed a sequence of lower highs from above $1.95, with the most recent intraday rejection occurring near $1.81. That descending line defines the short-term downtrend.
The local low at $1.71 marks immediate support. RSI on the 30-minute chart hovers around 37.5, recovering from oversold readings when price first tagged $1.71, while MACD has turned marginally positive on the histogram, signalling that the aggressive phase of selling has eased but that buyers have not yet taken control. A close below $1.71 validates a break of the long-term trendline and opens a clean path toward the $1.50 zone.

TD Sequential On XRP-USD: Exhaustion Signal Depends Entirely On $1.70 Holding

The TD Sequential indicator has completed a full downside “9” count on XRP-USD, which is usually an early warning that a short-term downtrend is reaching exhaustion. That signal is only actionable if the $1.70 floor holds. As long as candles continue to close above that level, the probability of a rebound into the $1.80–$1.85 resistance band stays alive.
If price bounces and breaks through $1.85–$1.90, the next battlefield is the $1.92–$2.13 region, where the 20-, 50- and 100-day EMAs cluster. If the TD signal fails and $1.70 gives way, the setup flips from “exhaustion within trend” to “continuation leg lower,” and the indicator becomes irrelevant until a new sequence forms.

XRPI ETF And XRPR ETF Pricing: Listed Vehicles Now Track XRP Near The Floor

The XRP ETF XRPI on NASDAQ closed at $9.97, down 3.58% on the day, with a small after-hours uptick to $9.99. The fund fell from a previous close of $10.34 and traded during the session between $9.83 and $10.24. The 52-week range is $9.83–$23.53, which means XRPI now sits right on its year low and more than 55% under its annual high. Average daily volume stands around 530.74K shares, so the product is liquid enough for both retail and moderate-size institutional flows.
The XRP ETF XRPR on BATS shows the same pattern. It ended the day at $14.24, down 3.46%, compared with a $14.75 prior close. Intraday trades were executed between $14.11 and $14.59. Its 12-month range runs from $14.11 to $25.99, so XRPR is also pinned to the bottom of its band, roughly 45% below the peak. Average volume is lighter at ~11.93K shares, reflecting its more niche positioning but still sufficient for investors who size positions rationally.
Both ETFs are effectively leveraged sentiment gauges on XRP-USD: they translate every move around the $1.70–$2.00 zone into amplified equity-style volatility, now from the lowest point of their quoted history.

XRP ETFs: $92.92M One-Day Outflow Turns A Quiet Week Into A Stress Event

Until mid-week, flows into XRP spot ETFs looked orderly. Across the five U.S. products tracking XRP-USD, the first three trading days of the prior week saw net inflows of $7.76M on Monday, $9.16M on Tuesday, and $6.95M on Wednesday – a combined positive of $23.87M.
That picture flipped in a single session. On Thursday, the same suite of ETFs recorded a brutal $92.92M net outflow, the largest one-day redemption since these products launched. The Grayscale GXRP vehicle alone shed about $98.39M, partially offset by modest inflows of $2.10M and $2.41M into smaller issuers such as Canary and Bitwise.
Friday stabilised but did not repair the damage. The group attracted $16.79M of new capital, leaving the full week with a net outflow of $52.26M (7.76 + 9.16 + 6.95 − 92.92 + 16.79 = −52.26). Cumulative net inflows slipped from roughly $1.26B at Wednesday’s close to about $1.18B by Friday. Total net assets across the XRP ETF complex now sit near $1.21B, down from peaks above $1.39B.

XRP Spot Flows: $18.41M Out On The Day After ETF Purge

The ETF exodus was not isolated to listed products. On January 30, Coinglass data show around $18.41M of spot XRP-USD flowing out of exchanges, extending a week-long pattern of distribution. That combination – redemptions at the ETF level plus net spot outflows – explains why the break below $1.80 was sharp instead of gradual.
When both institutional wrappers and direct holders sell at the same time, bids thin out quickly. There was no visible absorption wall near $1.80, so price moved straight to the trendline region around $1.70–$1.73, dragging XRPI toward $9.83 and XRPR toward $14.11 at the lower edge of their trading ranges.

ETF Flow Context: From Persistent Inflows To A First Real Stress Test

From launch through mid-January, XRP ETFs had behaved like a one-way street: almost every session printed net inflows, and cumulative capital raised climbed above $1.2B. That pattern broke briefly on January 7, and now again with far more force in late January.
So far, the history still shows only three negative net-flow days with outflows larger than inflows, but the $92.92M event is big enough to qualify as the first genuine stress test for these ETFs. Even after the purge, cumulative inflows remain positive at roughly $1.17–$1.18B, and total XRP ETF AUM near $1.21B indicates that institutional and structured capital still own a large block of the float.
The key question is whether last week’s move represents a single risk-reduction flush tied to macro headlines – Fed pausing rate cuts, Middle East naval deployment, broad risk-off – or the start of a longer de-risking cycle that keeps weekly flows negative. That answer will drive whether XRPI and XRPR stabilise around current levels or slide further alongside XRP-USD.

Lawsuit Resolution: August 2025 Settlement Still A Structural Tailwind For XRP

The legal overhang that capped XRP-USD for years is gone. The SEC first sued Ripple in December 2020, arguing that XRP was an unregistered security. The case dragged for almost five years, cost liquidity, and forced multiple delistings.
In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges did not constitute securities transactions, though specific institutional deals did breach securities rules. Appeals followed on both sides. The process finally ended in August 2025, when the SEC and Ripple dropped their appeals and agreed a settlement of about $50M, far below the regulator’s original $125M ask.
That outcome left XRP-USD with something most altcoins do not have: regulatory clarity in the U.S. Public-exchange trading is explicitly outside the security bucket, and institutions integrating XRP into payment flows can now rely on a tested court record instead of interpretive memos. This is the structural backdrop under which the ETFs were launched and under which XRPI and XRPR are trading today.

Long-Term Scenario Bands: From $3–$8 Realistic Targets To $35+ And The $1,000 Fantasy

Post-lawsuit, price projections for XRP-USD span a very wide range. A traditional bank desk such as Standard Chartered has floated levels up to roughly $8 by 2026, implying 300%+ upside from the $1.90 region referenced in mid-2025 and a strong multiple from current $1.70–$1.74 levels. Survey-based panels have talked about $2.80 in the nearer term and around $5.25 over the next several years.
More aggressive models, such as Telegaon’s, push scenarios toward $35–$40 by 2035, which would imply a multi-trillion-dollar capitalization. At the far end, some commentators have thrown out $1,000 by 2030, a number that would require XRP-USD to exceed $57–$59T in market capitalization – more than half the current value of the entire global equity market. That is not a realistic base case; the math alone makes it clear this tier belongs to marketing decks, not professional portfolio construction.
A credible range in a normal cycle stays in the $3–$8 bandwidth over the next 1–2 years under constructive market conditions, with upside capped by competition from stablecoins, central-bank digital currencies, and alternative payment rails. XRPI and XRPR are simply wrappers on top of that distribution of outcomes.

Fundamental Drivers After The Lawsuit: Remittances, Banking Partners And The ETF Layer

Ripple’s network already services more than 300 financial institutions worldwide. The global remittance market moves around $685B per year with average fee levels near 6%, well above the UN’s 3% target. A settlement rail that can clear cross-border transfers in seconds at a fraction of a cent has a genuine addressable problem to solve.
If XRP captures even a modest slice of that volume, the asset gains recurring transactional demand on top of speculative cycles. Ripple’s own estimates that XRP could intermediate around 14% of SWIFT-like payment volumes in a multi-year horizon are aggressive but illustrate the strategic intent. At the same time, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins – including Ripple’s own RLUSD, which has already crossed $1B in market cap – eats into part of the thesis: banks may prefer low-volatility, USD-linked tools over a volatile token for some flows.
The new ETF layer changes the ownership mix. With XRPI, XRPR and peers already holding more than $1.2B in XRP, a meaningful share of the supply now sits in regulated wrappers held by advisors, funds and high-net-worth accounts that would not touch native wallets. That is the closest analogue to “insider-style” institutional positioning in this asset: watching ETF creations and redemptions is effectively watching how the larger, more structured money adjusts exposure.

Risk Map: What A Break Below $1.70 Means For XRPI ETF And XRPR ETF

If XRP-USD closes decisively below $1.70 and confirms a break of the ascending trendline and the $1.71 intraday low, the next logical magnet sits around $1.50, a zone where prior demand and psychological round-number interest intersect. A move from $1.73 to $1.50 is a further 13–15% drop in the underlying.
In that scenario, XRPI ETF, now at $9.97 with a floor at $9.83, would likely take out its year low and trade into the high $8s–low $9s, depending on beta and intraday slippage. XRPR ETF, at $14.24 against a $14.11 low, would probably probe the $13 handle. Because both ETFs are sitting almost exactly at the bottom of their quoted 12-month ranges, there is no nearby technical shelf underneath them; support levels in the funds are effectively derived from XRP-USD itself plus whatever discount or premium the market assigns to the structure.
The risk path is therefore clean: sustained ETF outflows plus a break of $1.70 would turn XRPI and XRPR from “distressed entries near support” into “falling knives with no recent reference points.”

Rebound Case: What A Hold Above $1.70 And Flow Stabilisation Would Unlock

The upside scenario is equally straightforward. If $1.70–$1.71 continues to hold, the TD Sequential “9” becomes a valid exhaustion marker, ETF outflows slow or stabilise, and spot outflows normalise from $18.41M back toward flat or mild inflows. Under that configuration, a grind back toward the $1.80–$1.85 zone is the first logical step.
Reclaiming $1.92 would put XRP-USD back above the 20-day EMA; clearing around $2.00–$2.13 would retake the 50- and 100-day EMAs and convert the current breakdown into “deep correction within a still-intact longer-term structure.” That kind of repair would push XRPI ETF back into the low double digits and XRPR ETF into the high teens, relieving the immediate pressure of trading right on year lows.
Macro conditions matter. The late-January flush was tied to the Fed pausing rate cuts, higher yields, geopolitical deployment in the Middle East and a broad de-risking across crypto and metals. If yields ease, risk appetite stabilises and flows into crypto ETFs broadly turn less negative, XRP’s legal clarity and payment-rail story become relevant again and can attract incremental capital back into XRPI and XRPR.

Verdict On XRP, XRPI ETF And XRPR ETF: Tactical Bearish, Structural Speculative Buy

Based purely on the numbers on the screen – XRP-USD at $1.70–$1.74, XRPI ETF at $9.97 against a $9.83–$23.53 range, XRPR ETF at $14.24 versus $14.11–$25.99, ETF flows swinging from +$23.87M over three days to −$92.92M in one session and a net weekly −$52.26M, plus spot outflows of $18.41M – the short-term tape is clearly bearish. Trend, momentum and flows all line up on the downside.
At the same time, the combination of:
XRP’s post-lawsuit regulatory clarity in the U.S.
Cumulative ETF inflows still around $1.17–$1.18B
Total ETF AUM close to $1.21B
A remittance market near $685B per year where XRP can realistically take incremental share
and medium-term price bands in the $3–$8 range from conservative institutional forecasts
still justify treating XRP-USD, XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF as high-beta speculative longs on a multi-year horizon – but only for investors who can absorb deep volatility and a potential leg down toward $1.50.
So the stance is split and explicit:
For the near term, while price stays below $1.80 and ETF flows remain negative, the setup is tactically bearish / not a momentum buy.
For multi-year capital that accepts drawdowns and is looking for asymmetric payoff after the lawsuit clean-up and ETF normalisation, current levels in XRP-USD, XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF are closer to speculative BUY than to a rational SELL, with the $1.70 line as the key risk marker that must be watched every day.

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