Bitcoin ETFs Fuel $117,000 BTC-USD Surge as Fed Cuts Rates

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reshape Market Dynamics as BTC-USD Holds $117,000

Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut and BTC-USD Reaction

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to $117,182 after the Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%–4.25%. While U.S. equities struggled with volatility, Bitcoin held firm thanks to robust spot ETF inflows. Liquidity pressure briefly drove BTC down to $115,089, but a sharp rebound highlighted institutional demand as the dominant force. Traders are now eyeing the $118,000 resistance zone, with the potential to retest all-time highs near $124,000 if flows remain strong.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows Show Mixed Momentum

U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $51.28 million outflow on September 17, ending a seven-day inflow streak. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $116.03 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC shed $62.64 million. Yet BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) bucked the trend, drawing $149.73 million in new capital. Overall ETF assets under management stand at $152.45 billion, equal to 6.62% of Bitcoin’s $2.3 trillion market cap. Since inception, cumulative inflows total $57.33 billion, underlining Wall Street’s role in supporting BTC’s price base.

Poland Joins the Bitcoin ETF Wave

The Warsaw Stock Exchange launched Poland’s first regulated Bitcoin ETF, opening the door for 38 million citizens to gain BTC exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. Structured on derivatives to track BTC-USD, this move mirrors Canada’s 2021 and the U.S.’s 2024 approvals. While Poland’s ETF is in its infancy, it aligns Eastern Europe with the global institutionalization of Bitcoin, adding to cumulative global inflows of thousands of BTC daily across North America and now Europe.

Ethereum ETFs Struggle as Bitcoin Dominates

While Bitcoin ETFs gained ground, Ethereum ETFs continue to bleed. On September 17, Ether funds saw $1.89 million in net outflows, with Fidelity’s FETH alone losing $29.19 million. Total Ethereum ETF assets are now $29.72 billion, or 5.47% of ETH’s market cap, versus Bitcoin ETFs commanding over 6.6%. August data showed Ethereum briefly surpassing BTC ETF inflows with $4 billion, but September’s reversal underscores investor preference for BTC amid macro uncertainty.

Institutional Anchors vs Retail Hesitation

On-chain data reveals retail investors remain cautious, with New Address Momentum contracting. Despite over $2.8 billion in net ETF inflows since September 9, retail participation lags. Exchange deposits showed waves of $25 million inflows per block, signaling selective selling into strength. Yet long-term holders and institutional treasuries remain the backbone. Governments now hold between 120,000–170,000 BTC in reserves, according to Treasury disclosures, cementing Bitcoin’s role as a strategic asset.

Global ETF Expansion and SEC Acceleration

Momentum for crypto ETFs is broadening. The U.S. SEC approved fast-track listing rules for Nasdaq, Cboe, and NYSE Arca, allowing spot ETFs tied to multiple cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Over 92 new ETF applications are pending, ranging from Solana and Avalanche to Dogecoin. Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund, now cleared for listing, bundles BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA, signaling the next phase of institutional crypto products.

BTC-USD Technical Picture and Near-Term Targets

Bitcoin’s trajectory is defined by ETF flows and macro liquidity. Holding above $117,500 on daily closes would confirm structural support and reduce risks of a pullback to $114,000–$112,500. Momentum points toward $120,000 as the next target. With futures premiums elevated and ETF inflows backing spot demand, the probability of BTC testing new highs within two weeks is estimated at 70%. A decisive break above resistance could position Bitcoin for $124,000 and beyond, while failed support risks short-term cooling.

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