Bitcoin ETF Flows Flip From Aggressive Inflows to a $681 Million Weekly Outflow
BTC-USD Holds Above $90,000 While Spot ETFs Dump $1.38 Billion in Four Sessions
Spot Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETFs opened 2026 with heavy buying before the flows reversed sharply into sustained redemptions. On January 2, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $471.1 million in net inflows, followed by roughly $697.2 million on January 5, giving the complex close to $1.17 billion of creations in the first two trading sessions of the year. That demand helped push BTC toward $95,000 at the weekly high.
From January 6 through January 9, the profile flipped. Across four consecutive trading days, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of roughly $243.24 million, $486.08 million, $398.95 million and $249.99 million, for a combined four-day redemption of about $1.38 billion. After netting those exits against the earlier inflows, the first full trading week of 2026 closed with around $681 million in weekly net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to SoSoValue and related flow trackers.
Despite this, BTC-USD is still trading above $90,000. The latest prints show Bitcoin around $90,500–$90,600, roughly 0.99% below its weekly opening level and almost 5% below the weekly high. The Fear & Greed Index confirms the risk-off mood: sentiment has slid from about 44 back to 25, returning to the extreme fear band just as ETF redemptions and macro uncertainty intensified. ETFs have clearly turned from a weekly demand tailwind into a marginal supply source, but the spot market has absorbed roughly $1.3 billion of selling without losing the $90,000 floor.
IBIT’s Role as the Core Institutional BTC-USD Vehicle
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) sits at the center of this flow regime. It is the largest BTC ETF by far and the fund that carries most of the weight when institutions adjust exposure. On January 9, IBIT alone recorded about $252 million in outflows, the largest single-fund redemption of that day across the Bitcoin ETF stack. Bitwise’s BITB added roughly $5.89 million of redemptions, while several other products, including Grayscale’s GBTC and mini trust, Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB, VanEck’s HODL, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin’s EZBC, Valkyrie’s BRRR, WisdomTree’s BTCW and Hashdex’s DEFI, saw flat flows.
Structurally, IBIT remains enormous. The fund is trading around $51.16 with after-hours quotes near $51.36. Intraday, it has recently moved between $50.89 and $52.18, against a 52-week range of $42.98–$71.82. Market capitalization stands near $168.35 billion, on average daily volume of around 54.64 million shares. Cumulatively, IBIT holds about $62.41 billion in net inflows, making it the dominant institutional gateway to BTC-USD even after this week’s selling.
At the complex level, all 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs together now manage around $116.86–$116.9 billion in net assets, down from roughly $123.5 billion before the outflows. Lifetime cumulative net inflows have eased from about $57.78 billion to $56.40 billion, with the ETF stack still representing roughly 6.48% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. The outflows are meaningful in weekly terms but remain small relative to the total capital IBIT and its peers have pulled into BTC since January 2024.
Ethereum ETFs Mirror the Risk-Off Move With $351 Million of Redemptions
Spot Ethereum ETFs are tracking the same de-risking pattern, though on smaller absolute numbers. Ether products started January with strong inflows: about $174.43 million on January 2, $168.13 million on January 5 and $114.74 million on January 6. Then the profile reversed. Over the next three sessions, spot ETH ETFs recorded $98.45 million, $159.17 million and $93.82 million in outflows, totaling approximately $351.44 million in redemptions across three days.
Total Ether ETF assets have dropped from about $20.06 billion to $18.70 billion, while cumulative net inflows slipped from roughly $12.79 billion to $12.43 billion. The Ether ETF stack now controls around 5.04% of ETH’s market cap. BlackRock’s ETHA led recent selling, with roughly $83.8 million in outflows on a single day, followed by Grayscale’s ETHE with about $10 million of exits. The structure is clear: both BTC and ETH are being trimmed in the listed ETF sleeve as macro conditions turn less supportive and rate-cut expectations are repriced.
XRP and Solana ETF Allocations Absorb Capital While BTC-USD Bleeds
While Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have seen net redemptions, flows into XRP and Solana (SOL) products show that institutional allocators are rebalancing within the crypto bucket rather than abandoning digital assets altogether.
For XRP ETFs, the numbers are unambiguous. Since launching in mid-November 2025, the five U.S. spot XRP funds have attracted around $1.22 billion in cumulative inflows. Total XRP ETF assets stand near $1.47 billion, equivalent to about 1.16% of XRP’s market capitalization. According to SoSoValue, the group added roughly $4.93 million in net inflows on January 9 alone, marking yet another positive day in a series that has recorded only a single negative print since inception.
Weekly trading volume has just hit a record near $219 million, up from $117.4 million the prior week and above the earlier $213.9 million peak. Leadership has consolidated around a small cluster of established issuers: Canary’s XRPC with about $375.1 million AUM, Bitwise’s fund with roughly $300.3 million, Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ near $279.6 million, Grayscale’s GXRP at about $271.2 million, and 21Shares’ TOXR around $246.9 million. Even as other firms withdraw new XRP ETF applications, these live products are accumulating assets.
For Solana ETFs, flows are smaller but still positive. During the same first full trading week in which spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $681 million, spot SOL ETFs saw around $41.1 million in net inflows. Bitwise’s BSOL is the clear leader with roughly $648.1 million in cumulative net inflows, while Fidelity’s FSOL sits around $131.4 million. That divergence shows that part of the capital exiting BTC-USD via ETFs is being rotated into SOL and XRP narratives rather than pulled entirely out of the digital asset complex.
Macro Drivers: Rate-Cut Repricing, Tariff Risk and Geopolitics Behind the Outflows
The ETF reversal is tightly correlated with a change in macro expectations. Early in the week, markets leaned toward an easier Fed path, but subsequent data and legal risk have shifted sentiment toward caution.
The latest U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report showed only about 50,000 jobs added in December, compared with forecasts near 66,000. On the surface, weaker hiring would normally support BTC and growth assets by strengthening the case for rate cuts. However, the unemployment rate fell to roughly 4.4%, and monthly wage growth printed around 0.3%, reinforcing the idea that underlying wage inflation remains sticky.
At the same time, the market is digesting a high-stakes Supreme Court case on presidential tariff powers, which will determine whether billions in global tariffs are upheld or reversed. That legal uncertainty creates a binary policy cliff, encouraging large institutional portfolios to freeze risk-taking until the outcome is clearer.
Geopolitically, tensions around the U.S.–Venezuela situation have added another layer of risk. Together, these factors have pushed traders to price fewer near-term rate cuts, lifted the U.S. Dollar Index and forced risk assets into a risk-off regime. In that environment, liquid vehicles such as spot Bitcoin ETFs and IBIT are natural tools for rapidly reducing exposure.
Labor Market and Macro Microstructure: Why BTC-USD Became a Source of Cash
Labor data beneath the headline payrolls number reinforce the “cooling but not cracked” narrative that justifies a more cautious stance from the Fed. The JOLTS report shows job openings falling to around 7.15 million in November 2025, about 885,000 fewer than a year earlier, with the openings-to-unemployed ratio around 0.9. That is no longer an overheated labor market, but it is not weak enough to force urgent easing either.
When the market realizes that rates may stay higher for longer, while tariffs and geopolitical risk inject additional uncertainty, the fastest adjustment channel is often listed ETFs. Allocators can reduce gross exposure via IBIT and peer funds in hours, while maintaining optionality to re-enter when CPI data, Fed commentary and tariff rulings are clearer. That is exactly what the flow profile—front-loaded January inflows followed by four straight days of redemptions—illustrates.
Derivatives, Open Interest and Liquidations: Leverage Has Already Been Flushed
Derivatives metrics show that much of the speculative long leverage has already been forced out. Bitcoin open interest has fallen to levels last seen in 2022, signaling a substantial reduction in leveraged futures positioning. As BTC failed repeatedly to hold above the $93,000–$94,500 band, a wave of long liquidations swept through the market, with total crypto liquidations around $449 million, dominated by long positions.
With open interest depressed and forced selling already absorbed, the probability of another cascading liquidation event is lower than it was during earlier, more leveraged phases of the cycle. This helps explain why BTC-USD, even after a $1.38 billion ETF outflow streak and macro stress, is still trading around $90,000 rather than collapsing into a deep drawdown.
Long-Term Holders vs. Corporate Treasuries: Spot Selling Meets Structural Demand
On-chain data suggests that some long-term BTC holders have taken profits into strength over the last week, contributing to the available supply during the ETF de-risking. At the same time, large treasury and VC balance sheets are signalling the opposite intention.
A major venture firm has just raised roughly $15 billion, specifically targeting AI and crypto as strategic allocation themes. That capital will not chase short-term ETF flows; it will look for multi-year positioning, with Bitcoin as one of the core reserve and collateral assets.
In parallel, corporate treasuries focused on BTC, most notably the strategy associated with 673,000 BTC in treasury holdings, continue to frame Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Public commentary around that treasury indicates an ambition to accumulate more than 7% of total BTC supply over time and to keep buying even at much higher levels, including scenarios where BTC-USD trades above $1,000,000. That backdrop means ETF outflows and profit-taking by some long-term holders are occurring against a structural bid from entities whose time horizon is measured in years, not weeks.
Key Price Zones for BTC-USD and the IBIT Structure
The combination of ETF flows, macro risk and derivatives positioning has carved out a clear trading range for BTC-USD. On the downside, the first line of defense sits near $90,000, where spot and ETF flows are currently battling. Below that, traders are watching $88,000 as the next logical support. Heatmaps of leveraged positioning show a significant cluster of long liquidations sitting lower, around $84,000–$85,000, where a large pocket of margined longs could be flushed if $90,000 breaks decisively.
On the upside, a dense band of resting liquidity and unrealized profit sits between $94,000 and $98,000. If ETF flows stabilize and turn positive again, a push back through $95,000 could trigger a short squeeze into that upper cluster, especially with open interest already suppressed.
For IBIT, these spot levels translate into a mapped ETF band. At around $51.16, IBIT is well above its recent low of $42.98 but far from the $71.82 high. A visit to the $84,000–$85,000 BTC zone would likely drive IBIT back toward the low-$40s, while a breakout toward $98,000–$100,000 on BTC would re-rate IBIT toward the high-$60s or low-$70s range if tracking remains tight.
Technical Structure: Compression Now, Upside Targets Still Intact
Technically, BTC-USD is not in a blow-off top pattern; it is in a compression phase after a strong rally. Several analysts highlight an ascending triangle on the daily chart, defined by rising higher lows under a horizontal resistance area near $94,000–$95,000. A decisive breakout from that structure projects a move into the $98,000–$100,000 band before major overhead supply reappears.
Shorter-timeframe work identifies a bullish Adam and Eve pattern, which aligns with the idea that recent dips are carving a base rather than forming a rounded top. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI has broken above a three-month downtrend that began in September 2025. The last time a similar RSI breakout occurred, BTC followed with months of upside from local lows. That analog now underpins medium-term projections around $103,000–$105,000 over the coming weeks if macro conditions and ETF flows normalize.
In parallel, flows and volatility metrics show that the market is already adjusting to the current shock. The shift of the Fear & Greed Index from around 44 back to 25 confirms that the overextension on the sentiment side has been corrected. BTC is back in a zone where new capital can enter without having to chase euphoric prints.
Flow Outlook, IBIT Positioning and the Investment Stance on BTC-USD
Across the data you provided—ETF flows, macro repricing, derivatives positioning, XRP and SOL ETF rotation, on-chain behavior and technical structure—the picture is internally consistent. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have just printed about $681 million in weekly net outflows and roughly $1.38 billion in four daily redemptions, yet they still hold around $116.86–$116.9 billion in BTC with $56.40 billion in cumulative inflows. Ether ETFs have shed about $351.44 million over three days, but XRP and SOL ETFs are still attracting capital, with XRP products sitting near $1.47 billion AUM and $1.22 billion in lifetime inflows, and Solana’s BSOL alone carrying about $648.1 million in net inflows.
Leverage has already been flushed back to 2022-level open interest, long liquidations have cleared, and BTC remains above $90,000 in an environment where the Fed path, tariff power and geopolitical risk are all in flux. Corporate treasuries and venture capital allocations aimed at AI and crypto are still positioned to accumulate over multi-year horizons.
Given this structure and the price and flow levels you provided, the stance on Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and IBIT is bullish with controlled risk. The market is vulnerable to a further dip toward $88,000 or even the $84,000–$85,000 pocket if CPI and Fed communication reinforce the risk-off regime and ETF outflows persist. But with ETF penetration already high, leverage already reduced and structural buyers still active, the data supports treating these drawdowns as buy-the-dip opportunities rather than a structural breakdown.
That's TradingNEWS
