Bitcoin Price (BTC-USD) Battles $116K Support Amid ETF Outflows and Whale Rotations

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Faces Inflection as $116K Support Wobbles Amid ETF Outflows and Liquidity Traps

BTC-USD Whipsaws at $118K as ETF Flows Diverge

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovered near $118,000, slipping 2.3% over two days as selling intensified from institutional desks. Profit-taking dominated price action, driven by three consecutive days of U.S. spot ETF outflows, totaling $285 million. Fidelity's fund led withdrawals with $227 million yanked, while BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw a $143 million inflow—insufficient to counterbalance broader pessimism. As of Thursday, Tesla's unrealized gains on its 11,509 BTC holdings were estimated at $1.2 billion, supported by Bitcoin's 30% rally in Q2. Despite this, TSLA tumbled 8.94%, suggesting crypto gains offered little relief amid weak core earnings.

Liquidity Clusters Surround $116K and $120K Zones

Bitcoin remains boxed between major liquidity levels. The Binance BTC/USDT heatmap highlights large liquidation pools both above $120K and below $116K. The setup has created a tight equilibrium zone that traders recognize as a high-risk whipsaw range. A break above $120,297 would likely ignite forced short liquidations, while failure at $116,186 could prompt cascading long liquidations. Sell-side liquidity is visibly growing just below $116K, forming a trap zone.

Technical Breakdown: Patterns Turn Bearish Below $117K

On the daily timeframe, BTC shows fading momentum within a rising wedge near the $123,000 all-time high. Support at $116K remains under assault after multiple tests. Volume on green candles is drying up, with RSI neutral at 63 and MACD at 2,738 diverging from price—a textbook bearish divergence. On the 4-hour chart, a potential head and shoulders pattern is emerging, neckline support now at $116,000. Failure to hold that line could trigger a sharp move toward $111,000—the base of the recent bull flag.

On-Chain Flow Weakens: Bitcoin Flow Pulse in Decline

The Bitcoin Flow Pulse, a key metric tracking capital movement from long-term wallets, has been declining since BTC hit $120K. This suggests cautious positioning by whales and fewer coins being sent to exchanges. Glassnode data shows over 1.38 million BTC—worth $163 billion—were accumulated between $115,500 and $120,000. But with many of these coins held by short-term traders, price action near resistance could prompt panic exits.

Oscillator Conflicts Point to Directional Indecision

The technical indicator mix paints a murky picture. The Stochastic at 61 and CCI at 46 point to mild strength, while the Momentum Oscillator at -1,411 and ADX at 29 flag weakening trend conviction. Meanwhile, moving averages remain overwhelmingly bullish: all EMAs and SMAs from 10-day to 200-day are aligned for upside. The 10-day EMA sits at $117,989, with price attempting to hold that threshold. As long as BTC stays above $116K, structural uptrend remains intact. But breakdowns typically accelerate once that support fails.

Macro Pressure Mounts: Regulation, CPI, and Trump Stimulus

Macro triggers are piling up. President Trump’s $5 trillion stimulus bill—dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"—has raised inflationary expectations. June CPI printed at 2.7% YoY, up from 2.4%, hinting at sticky inflation. These dynamics should support hard assets like BTC over the long term. But in the near term, traders remain cautious ahead of the White House’s crypto policy report (due July 30), which may reveal plans for managing seized BTC reserves and a regulatory overhaul.

Whale Activity and Regulatory Jitters Cap Upside

Large wallet addresses have been rotating capital, with reported whale transfers triggering automated sell programs and suppressing breakout momentum. At the same time, political and regulatory uncertainty has capped institutional participation. The House passed three major bills—the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act—but Senate passage remains pending. Traders are sidelined until more clarity emerges.

Altcoin Collapse Highlights Bitcoin's Relative Strength

While Bitcoin dropped modestly, altcoins suffered disproportionate losses: Ethereum (ETH) down 6% to $3,515; XRP plunged 17% to $2.97, breaking the psychological $3.00 barrier; and Dogecoin (DOGE) cratered 18.5% to $0.22. This divergence has reinforced BTC’s role as the digital safe haven. Market dominance rose as capital rotated from speculative assets into BTC amid broad deleveraging.

Accumulation vs. Exit: Smart Money Sits Tight

Despite ETF outflows and technical fatigue, smart money isn’t rushing for exits. The declining Flow Pulse implies that long-term holders are refraining from distribution. This could limit downside follow-through unless $116K cracks with volume. Until then, Bitcoin's bullish structure—despite stress fractures—remains technically viable.

Buy, Sell, Hold Verdict on BTC-USD

• Buy: Only on breakout above $123,000 with volume

• Hold: Between $116,000 and $120,000 (current range)

• Sell: If breakdown occurs below $116,000—targeting $111,000

Bitcoin remains range-bound, but the stakes around $116K are mounting. A violent move is imminent—directional clarity will come from volume and liquidation flow, not narratives. All eyes now shift to the next catalyst: regulatory clarity, ETF rotation, or macro policy headlines.

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