Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Nears $116K as Fed Cut Bets and ETF Inflows

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Price Analysis — October 27, 2025

BTC-USD Extends Five-Day Rally Past $115,000 as Fed Cut Bets and U.S.–China Trade Breakthrough Lift Market Sentiment

Bitcoin’s resurgence accelerated Monday as BTC-USD climbed 1.2% to $114,880 by mid-afternoon, extending its fifth straight session of gains and reclaiming momentum lost after early-October’s sharp correction. The rally coincided with broad risk-asset strength driven by a new U.S.–China trade framework and nearly certain expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut on October 29.
Trading volume surged more than 318% above the session average, confirming genuine buying pressure rather than speculative liquidity spikes. The broader crypto market capitalization rose to $3.92 trillion, up 1.9% on the day, underscoring the synchronized rebound across digital assets.

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Easing and Trade Thaw Revive Risk Appetite

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 98.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, marking the second consecutive reduction since September. Softer September CPI data at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected reinforced the dovish narrative, weakening the U.S. dollar and channeling liquidity into high-beta assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Simultaneously, a “substantial framework agreement” announced in Malaysia between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese counterparts paused threats of 100% tariffs and rare-earth export bans, easing one of the largest macro headwinds of Q4. Markets immediately priced out escalation risk, sending Bitcoin, Ethereum, and risk-linked equities higher in tandem.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand Underpin BTC Strength

Data from SoSoValue showed $445 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows last week, signaling renewed institutional conviction. This coincides with futures open interest stabilizing around $35 billion, a level unseen since July 2025, before Bitcoin’s August peak at $126,198.
According to Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, a sustained easing cycle could drive BTC-USD toward $125,000, marking a full retest of all-time highs. Singh emphasized that “looser monetary policy typically benefits Bitcoin,” citing its sensitivity to global liquidity trends.

Technical Landscape: Breakout Above $114,176 Restores Bullish Bias

Sunday’s 2.6% surge propelled Bitcoin decisively above the 50-day EMA at $114,176, confirming a breakout pattern after the October 10 crash that sank prices to $103,000. Monday’s follow-through above $115,600 validated the double-bottom formation built around the 200-day EMA near $108,639.
Short-term resistance now lies between $117,600 and $120,000, aligning with July highs, while a sustained close above $121,400 – $126,300 would re-enter price-discovery territory. The Average True Range (ATR) of 4,195 highlights active volatility; meanwhile, RSI at 45.6 indicates room for upside before overbought conditions re-emerge.

Derivatives and Liquidations Signal Momentum Shift

Derivatives data from CoinGlass reported $319 million in short liquidations over 24 hours through Sunday, confirming a classic short-squeeze dynamic. This liquidation wave forced bearish traders to cover as spot prices pierced resistance, amplifying gains. The Awesome Oscillator at –4,735.99 remains mildly negative but improving, suggesting momentum is turning positive as the rally consolidates above the 50-day moving average.

Institutional and Corporate Exposure: ASST, MSTR, and COIN Benefit

Crypto-linked equities joined the rally. Strive (ASST) surged 31.8%, Strategy (MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy) gained 2.7%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) added 1.1%, reflecting renewed enthusiasm for Bitcoin-exposed balance sheets. These moves came alongside broad U.S. index gains, with the S&P 500 (+1.0%), Dow (+0.54%), and Nasdaq (+1.62%) all closing at record highs. The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks—particularly high-beta growth names—has tightened as investors treat both as liquidity-sensitive proxies for monetary policy shifts.

Market Psychology: From Fear to Controlled Greed

October’s early selloff wiped nearly $19 billion from leveraged crypto positions, briefly pushing sentiment into “fear” territory. Since then, total market value has recovered 8%, stabilizing above $4 trillion. According to MV Global’s Kyle Chassé, ETFs continue to “pull coins off the market,” providing a steady bid that compresses circulating supply.
Still, Wave Digital Assets CEO David Siemer warns that “traders are taking incremental exposure, not betting on a straight run.” This cautious build-up signals a more sustainable uptrend compared to previous parabolic spikes.

Global Context: Regulatory Timelines and Political Uncertainty

Macro risk remains. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau noted that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could delay the pending crypto market-structure bill and altcoin ETF approvals, weighing on sentiment heading into November. Time pressure ahead of the holiday legislative recess limits the chance for rapid regulatory clarity.
Nonetheless, the relative stability of BTC above $110,000 despite these uncertainties underscores growing market maturity and the presence of long-term holders who absorbed October’s drawdowns without capitulation.

Comparative Crypto Performance: ETH, XRP, DOGE

While Bitcoin leads, Ethereum (ETH-USD) advanced 4.2% to $4,159, extending its own five-session streak and reclaiming the 50-day EMA after testing the 200-day support near $3,700. XRP (-USD) rose 0.7% to $2.66, consolidating below resistance between $2.60 – $2.70, while Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) hovered at $0.203, constrained by an emerging death-cross pattern as the 50-day average dipped below the 200-day line. These mixed signals reinforce Bitcoin’s dominance index hovering near 52%, a level consistent with historical pre-breakout phases.

Quant Metrics: Volatility, Liquidity, and Technical Breadth

Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume exceeded $49 billion, one of the highest readings since August. The coin’s year-to-date return remains –15.5%, but its three-year gain of 89% highlights strong long-term compounding despite cyclical volatility. Yearly price extremes range from $65,521 (low) to $126,198 (high), emphasizing an exceptionally wide band that continues to attract volatility-based strategies.
Market depth on major exchanges improved following last week’s liquidation reset, with bid-ask spreads narrowing 6% relative to early October levels—an early sign that institutional market-makers are re-engaging.

Technical Projections: Q4 Targets and Seasonal Strength

Analyst Joel Kruger from LMAX Group points to a seasonal tailwind: historically, both October and Q4 deliver outperformance for BTC, with average quarterly gains of +18–25% since 2017. He sees $134,100 as a potential upside target based on falling-wedge breakout analysis, provided Bitcoin maintains daily closes above $117,600.
Failure to defend that zone could trigger a retest of $108,600, though structural demand from ETFs and institutional desks reduces the probability of deeper drawdowns.

Valuation and Market Structure Outlook

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio climbed back above pre-tariff levels, confirming a rotation from defensive assets into digital alternatives. Standard Chartered strategist Geoffrey Kendrick even suggested that BTC “may never fall below $100,000 again” if current macro conditions persist. The comment underscores how far the asset’s perceived fair-value floor has shifted upward amid global monetary easing.

Investment View: Momentum Building Toward Year-End

Bitcoin trades just 8.7% below its all-time high of $126,198, yet market positioning remains cautious, implying room for a continued melt-up. ETF inflows, resilient technicals, and macro liquidity all favor higher prices through Q4. Absent major geopolitical shocks or delayed U.S. legislation, the path toward $120,000 – $125,000 looks achievable within weeks.

Verdict: Based on the convergence of technical breakout signals, record ETF inflows, renewed institutional participation, and a dovish Federal Reserve stance, BTC-USD currently aligns with a Buy outlook. Momentum, liquidity depth, and seasonal strength collectively justify a bullish bias targeting $125,000–$134,000 before year-end, with risk management focused on the $108,600 support zone.

That's TradingNEWS