Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Climbs Past $113K, Fed Cut Odds Fuel Liquidity Rally

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Extends Recovery Beyond $113,000 as Liquidity, Rate Cuts, and Whale Flows Drive Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC-USD $113,711.04 +2.10%) advanced through the $113,000 threshold this weekend, touching $114,000 before stabilizing near $113,700 USDT. The rebound follows three weeks of stagnation between $108,000 – $112,500, now shaped by renewed macro tailwinds, tightening on-chain supply, and institutional accumulation patterns. The market’s direction into the Federal Reserve’s October 29 meeting will decide whether the rally extends toward $118,000–$123,000 or pauses below resistance.

Rate-Cut Probability at 98% Fuels Renewed Risk Appetite

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices a 98 percent chance of a 0.25-point cut, placing the target range at 3.75% – 4.00%. Softer U.S. inflation data and global easing momentum—82 percent of central banks have reduced rates in the past half-year—have revived speculative flows into both equities and digital assets. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted record closes, Bitcoin followed risk assets higher, outperforming gold as Treasury yields slipped to 4.02 percent on the ten-year note.

Rotation Out of Gold and Into Bitcoin as Safe-Haven Demand Eases

The BTC/gold ratio registered its most oversold level in nearly three years last week, with its 14-day RSI at 22.20, typically a reversal zone. Gold’s eight-week winning streak ended with a 6 percent drop from $4,380 to $4,120, driven by ETF outflows and profit-taking as trade tensions cooled. Bitcoin’s 5 percent weekly gain coincided with this rotation, signaling that capital once parked in metals is migrating back into higher-beta assets as macro fear subsides.

On-Chain Supply Dynamics Show Long-Term Holders Taking Profits

Glassnode data indicate that roughly 62,000 BTC—valued around $7 billion—left long-term, illiquid wallets since mid-October. Illiquid supply represents coins unmoved for at least 155 days, often associated with committed investors. Its 62 k decline suggests that part of the early-cycle cohort is realizing gains into strength. When illiquid holdings shrink, circulating liquidity rises, making it harder for price to trend without new inflows. Historically, similar drawdowns preceded sideways consolidation periods.

Momentum Traders Exit While New Buyers Stay Cautious

Market depth shows fading speculative leverage. Momentum-driven traders have reduced long exposure after the September pullback, while spot buyers have not filled the gap. Retail inflows remain below August levels, and funding rates on perpetual futures have normalized near zero—evidence of balanced positioning rather than exuberance. Until new capital returns, Bitcoin is likely to oscillate inside a narrow $108,000 – $115,000 channel.

Institutional Accumulation and Systematic Buying Emerge

Despite weak retail flows, quantitative signals show steady TWAP ( time-weighted average price ) buying between $111,000 and $113,500. Analysts attribute this to algorithmic or institutional accumulation. BTC has now posted four consecutive green daily candles, the longest streak since July. If price sustains above the short-term holder cost basis (~$113,000), history implies upside continuation toward $130,000 – $144,000 as short-term profit-taking subsides.

Technical Structure Points to a Breakout Zone Near $115,000

The market is attempting to convert $112,500 – $113,000 into solid support. A close above $115,000 would confirm a breakout from the two-month range and activate the next resistance band near $118,000 – $123,000. Failure to hold $111,000 could trigger a retest of $108,000 and possibly $105,000 – $103,500, levels aligned with the 100-day moving average. Volatility has compressed to its lowest since May, setting the stage for a strong directional move once macro clarity emerges.

Fed Meeting and Global Liquidity Define the Macro Narrative

The upcoming FOMC announcement will determine whether risk assets maintain their upward bias. Markets expect Powell to emphasize “insurance easing,” signaling that policy accommodation will persist into 2026. A confirmed cut would expand liquidity across crypto exchanges, where stablecoin supply already tops $161 billion, up 8 percent QoQ. Conversely, any hint of QT (quantitative-tightening) continuity could stall Bitcoin’s ascent.

Correlation Shifts: Bitcoin Tracks Equities, Not Inflation Hedges

During October, the BTC/Gold correlation (30-day) fell to 0.22, the weakest since 2022, while the BTC/Nasdaq correlation climbed to 0.83. The data reinforce Bitcoin’s evolution into a liquidity barometer rather than a classical inflation hedge. As equities rally on monetary easing, BTC mirrors the same directional bias, benefiting from the same liquidity impulse driving mega-cap technology stocks higher.

Whale Behavior Signals Quiet Accumulation Below $114,000

Exchange order-book analysis reveals multiple 1,000-BTC buy clusters between $111,500 and $113,000, consistent with whale layering strategy. Large holders appear to be absorbing supply released by long-term investors, keeping net exchange balances stable despite on-chain outflows. This pattern mirrors pre-breakout structures seen in March 2024 and September 2023, both of which preceded multi-week rallies exceeding 20 percent.

Short-Term Market Range and Key Support Levels

Immediate support sits at $112,000, with secondary levels at $111,000 and $108,200. Resistance remains $115,000, then $118,000, followed by $123,000. A decisive weekly close above $113,000 would confirm structural reversal on the daily chart, while losing $110,500 could invite profit-taking back to the mid-$100,000 region. Trading volumes rose 19 percent week-on-week, signaling renewed participation as volatility compresses

Comparative Asset Context: BTC Versus Altcoins and Traditional Markets

Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 53.4 percent, slightly lower than the mid-October peak of 54.2 percent as Ethereum (ETH-USD $4,064.66 +3.25%), Solana (SOL-USD $199.37 +3.41%), and Cardano (ADA-USD $0.6758 +3.07%) rebound. However, BTC remains the anchor of crypto risk sentiment; sustained performance above $113K typically catalyzes rotation into altcoins two to three weeks later. Traditional assets echo the same risk revival: the S&P 500 (+0.79%) and Nasdaq (+1.15%) logged record closes, while gold ($4,126) and oil ($61.44) retreated.

Liquidity Barometer Status: Bitcoin Leads the Global Risk Curve

NYDIG research classifies Bitcoin as a liquidity barometer, not an inflation hedge. With global M2 growth turning positive for the first time since 2022 and real yields easing, capital is again migrating into digital assets. Bitcoin’s performance relative to USD liquidity indices has a 0.91 correlation over the past six months—its tightest in history. This underscores the asset’s sensitivity to monetary policy rather than commodity inflation trends.

Strategic View: Consolidation Before Expansion

Price behavior indicates controlled accumulation rather than speculative mania. If the Fed confirms the expected cut and maintains dovish forward guidance, BTC could extend toward $120,000 – $123,000 into November. However, the recent 62,000-BTC decline in illiquid supply warns that long-term holders may continue trimming exposure, creating overhead supply around $115,000–$118,000. Traders should watch for rising spot inflows and declining exchange reserves as validation of sustained demand.

Verdict on BTC-USD: Bullish Bias, Buy on Dips Above $111,000

All major metrics—monetary easing, institutional accumulation, reduced volatility, and strong technical reclaim—support a bullish short-to-medium-term outlook. The key condition remains defending $111,000–$112,000 support ahead of the Fed meeting. With macro liquidity expanding and whales absorbing supply, the balance of probabilities favors an advance toward $118,000–$123,000. TradingNews Rating: Buy / Bullish Bias on BTC-USD, accumulation zone $111K–$113K, breakout confirmation above $115K, target $120K–$123K.

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