Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Climbs to $117,525 After Fed Cut, Eyes $124K Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds $117,000 After Fed Cut While Volatility Builds

Fed Rate Cut Sparks Bitcoin Moves Above $117,000

The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.0%–4.25%, brought Bitcoin (BTC-USD) back above the $117,000 mark, its strongest level since mid-August. BTC initially dipped below $115,000 but recovered quickly, climbing 1.46% to $117,525.45. The Fed also signaled as much as 50 basis points in additional cuts through 2025, keeping traders on edge. Open interest in Bitcoin futures surged immediately after the decision, while spot trading volumes weakened, pointing to leveraged speculation rather than broad buying strength.

Bitcoin Technical Levels: From $107K Bounce to $124K Target

BTC’s rally began after rebounding from the $107,000 demand zone and regaining the 100-day moving average near $113,000. Chart momentum shows potential to retest the $124,000 resistance, which aligns with Bitcoin’s all-time high. If BTC clears that level, analysts see scope for a push toward $130,000. Short-term risks remain: a drop back toward $112,000–$108,800 support could unfold if futures leverage unwinds. The RSI remains above 50%, suggesting room for upside before the market overheats.

Fed Messaging: Dovish Shift but Mixed Confidence

Chair Jerome Powell admitted that unemployment is rising and job growth is slowing, signaling urgency to support growth. Yet, he cautioned that there are “no risk-free paths” for policy. One Fed governor even pushed for a deeper 0.5% cut, highlighting internal debate. Markets are now pricing in a further two cuts this year, which would push the Fed funds range down to 3.50%–3.75% by December. For Bitcoin, this environment of falling yields and dollar weakness typically strengthens bullish momentum, but the lack of strong spot demand has capped the immediate rally.

Futures and Spot Divergence: Leverage Dominates BTC Action

The jump in futures open interest contrasted with falling spot exchange volumes, suggesting that speculative leverage is powering current moves. This leaves BTC vulnerable to liquidation cascades if positions unwind, potentially triggering sharp downside spikes. Already, more than $105 million in liquidations were recorded within half an hour of the Fed decision. Without stronger spot inflows, Bitcoin risks volatility around key resistance levels.

Seasonality and Historical Patterns Point to Uptober

September has been historically weak for Bitcoin, yet when the month ends in the green, October has almost always delivered strong rallies. In 2023, Bitcoin gained 3.99% in September and followed with a 28.5% October surge. In 2024, September closed with a 7.11% gain, followed by an 11.2% October rally. If September 2025 closes positive — currently up 6.24% MTD — history suggests double-digit October gains could follow. Investors have already branded this pattern “Uptober”, reinforcing sentiment that BTC may be on the verge of its next leg higher.

Altcoin Market and Institutional Flows Add Fuel

Ethereum (ETH-USD) rose 2.44% to $4,603.88, while XRP (XRP-USD) climbed 3.10% and Solana (SOL-USD) spiked 6.05%, briefly topping $245. CME Group’s plan to launch SOL and XRP options on October 13 could boost institutional activity across the sector. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. continue to see net inflows, with spot ETFs absorbing billions, providing structural demand even as retail volumes decline.

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