Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Crashes to $94K as 815,000 BTC Hits the Market

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Price Breaks Its Cycle Structure As Selling Pressure Deepens And The Market Loses Its Anchor

Bitcoin BTC-USD is moving through one of its most dangerous structural phases of the past two years, sinking toward $94,000 with momentum that reflects more than normal volatility. This is a market losing altitude while support erodes underneath it. The price has slipped from $126,000 in October to the recent low of $93,961, a full 22% drawdown in barely a month, and every attempt to reclaim the $100,000 handle has been rejected by sellers who are controlling order flow across every major exchange. The trading volume above $69 billion in 24 hours highlights heavy activity, but the aggressor in that activity is overwhelmingly the selling side, not buyers trying to defend key levels. Bitcoin’s current $1.9 trillion market capitalization underscores how large this move has become in dollar terms, with tens of billions evaporated in November alone as liquidity thins and forced selling begins to dominate price behavior.

Massive Distribution From Long-Term Holders Signals A Shift In Market Psychology With 815,000 BTC Sold In 30 Days

One of the most alarming developments is the aggressive supply pressure from long-term holders, who have released 815,000 BTC back into the market over the past 30 days. This is the largest wave of long-term distribution since January 2024 and mirrors historical moments when the market was either topping or entering deep structural corrections. The return of these older coins increases circulating supply at the exact moment demand softens, creating a pressure cooker effect where each bounce becomes weaker. This renewed activity in dormant wallets is not limited to one cohort; coins ranging from six months old to over ten years have begun moving, with some wallets breaking silence for the first time in a decade. Even if part of this awakening is linked to upgrades in wallet formats or concerns about quantum security, the net effect is the same: a surge of supply entering a market unable to absorb it.

Bitcoin ETFs Face A Critical Stress Point As The Average Cost Basis Of $90,146 Becomes A Liquidity Trigger For The Entire Market

Bitcoin’s 2025 ecosystem is defined by ETF flows, and now those flows have become a potential catalyst for instability. The $59 billion that poured into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since early 2024 carries an average purchase cost of $90,146. With BTC hovering only a few thousand dollars above that level, unrealized profits across ETFs have collapsed from a peak of $23.9 billion in October to just $2.94 billion, barely 4.7%. This is the exact zone where ETF inflows can flip into outflows. The sharp $869.9 million in ETF outflows recorded in a single session shows the first hints of panic. If BTC breaks below $90,000, these funds may be forced into selling actual Bitcoin in size, injecting a dangerous wave of supply into a market already fighting to hold major support.

Macro Pressure Aligns Against BTC As It Trades More Like A High-Beta Tech Asset And Less Like A Safe Hard Asset

Macro conditions are amplifying the decline. Bitcoin has been moving in correlation with tech weakness, dropping nearly 9% in line with Nasdaq declines and reacting to tightening liquidity across global markets. Despite forecasts that BTC would decouple under Trump-era pro-crypto policies, recent price action shows it still behaves like a high-beta tech proxy. Rising Treasury yields, uncertainty around U.S. economic data delayed by the government shutdown, and a broader derisking across risk assets are all converging at the exact moment Bitcoin loses its technical structure. Even the Trump-aligned narrative isn’t enough to offset what the market is seeing in real time: investors stepping back from risk until macro signals stabilize.

Technicals Break Across All Timeframes As Bitcoin Loses Trend Control And Volume Confirms Bearish Structure

The technical landscape presents no ambiguity. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has posted a sequence of lower highs from $125,000 to $103,000 and down to $96,000, while the fall to $93,961 confirmed the loss of its multi-month ascending trendline. All major moving averages slope downward, with the 10-EMA at $99,737 rolling under heavy pressure and the 200-SMA at $110,482 now far above price, reflecting a decisive trend reversal. On the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin appears trapped between $94,000 and $96,000, with every attempt to retest $97,500 being rejected before momentum develops. On the hourly chart, price action looks even weaker, with failed attempts to break $96,736 turning into instant selloffs. RSI hovering around 33, the stochastic cycling through weak zones, and MACD deeply negative at –3,809 all confirm a market losing momentum rather than preparing for a reversal.

Market Sentiment Hits “Extreme Fear” As Retail Panic Meets Institutional Hesitation And Social Activity Explodes 42%

Sentiment indicators mirror the chart. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crashed to 18, the lowest reading in months, placing BTC firmly in “extreme fear.” Retail panic has intensified, highlighted by a 42% spike in social media discussions when BTC lost the $95,000 threshold. Twitter, Telegram, and trading groups erupted into what analysts call “sentiment shock,” a phase where fear drives market behavior more aggressively than fundamentals. Ironically, despite the fear, 57% of social chatter remains optimistic, creating a split market where hope collides with data. Historically, these sentiment patterns occur near significant turning points, but only after supply pressure cools — and supply pressure is currently accelerating.

On-Chain Flows Reveal Deep Structural Stress As Old Bitcoin Moves And Liquidity Gaps Form Below $94K

On-chain metrics underline a market under strain. Dormant coins from all eras have begun moving, including coins last active five to ten years ago. This reactivation mirrors distribution phases seen in 2018 and 2022, where long-term conviction softened and holders feared deeper macro deterioration. Exchange liquidity has thinned noticeably, increasing slippage risk and making each large order more impactful. The spot order books show clear imbalances, with bids stacking near $92K–$90K and sellers dominating the $97K–$100K band. If $94,000 breaks decisively, Bitcoin faces a liquidity air pocket down to $90,000, and below that, a larger structural void down to $84,000, a level highlighted repeatedly across multiple analyses.

Fear Across Altcoins and ETFs Pushes Bitcoin Dominance Higher While Darker Liquidity Dynamics Take Shape

Altcoins are suffering even more, with Solana dropping over 10% for the week, Ethereum slipping 3–4%, and XRP, BNB, TRX, and DOGE all posting losses. The Altcoin Season Index at 31 reinforces that capital is fleeing high-risk coins and concentrating around BTC out of necessity, not conviction. Dominance rising toward 69% shows fear consolidating around Bitcoin as a defensive shelter, but this pattern also appears before deeper breakdowns when liquidity drains across the ecosystem.

Psychological Stress Builds As Retail Capitulation Clashes With Institutional Caution And Analysts Debate The Next Move

Retail panic is rising visibly. Traders are pulling capital, questioning long-term positions, and reacting emotionally to declines under $100K. At the same time, institutional voices express unusual caution. Michael Saylor publicly stating that MicroStrategy is safe even if Bitcoin falls 80% is not confidence — it’s a pre-emptive defense. ETF issuers calling current levels “a reasonable entry” rather than “a strong buy” further shows a shift in tone. And the Trump-aligned crypto enthusiasm is not preventing BTC from falling — a sign that sentiment alone cannot overpower structural selling.

The Market Reaches A Crossroads As Bitcoin Decides Between $100K Recovery Or A Drop Toward $84K

Bitcoin now sits at a critical crossroads. If it reclaims $97,500 on strong volume and closes above $100,000, momentum can flip toward $102,000–$106,000, opening space for recovery. But if $94,000 breaks decisively, the path toward $90,000 becomes almost unavoidable, followed by a potential slide toward $84,000, the next major liquidity magnet. Every piece of data — technical, on-chain, ETF, macro, sentiment, and market flow — leans toward risk rather than recovery. This is a market in a defensive crouch, reacting to stress instead of building strength.

BTC-USD Verdict: SELL

The full weight of the data forces a single clear conclusion for BTC-USD. This is a SELL environment. The price failure from $126,000 down to $94,000, the enormous 815,000 BTC long-term holder distribution, the ETF cost-basis threat at $90,146, the $869.9M outflow, the extreme fear reading at 18, the broken trendline, the collapsing technical structure, and the liquidity gaps all point toward a market leaning heavily bearish. Momentum remains against Bitcoin. Until BTC reclaims $100,000 with conviction and absorbs selling pressure, the dominant probability is continued downside.

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