Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds $116,033 as $118K Resistance Meets Fed Cut and $4.9T Options Expiry

Bitcoin Price Holds $116,000 as Market Eyes $118,000 Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded near $116,033, down 1.5%, after reaching an intraday high of $117,968. The $117,200 to $118,000 band has become a key pivot where bulls repeatedly fail to secure a daily close. A confirmed breakout at this zone could accelerate momentum toward $120,000–$125,000, while rejection risks dragging the price back toward $113,000–$114,000. Traders note immediate resistance at $117,980, with overhead targets between $119,300 and $120,300, while support rests at $115,750 and deeper at $113,300, where the 200-SMA has proven reliable.

Liquidation Triggers and Derivative Pressure

Leverage remains a defining factor. Short positions are stacked heavily between $118,000 and $119,000, creating the potential for a violent short squeeze should that ceiling be breached. Previous surges, such as the breakout from $107,000 earlier this month, delivered near 9% gains in 48 hours on the back of forced liquidations. Yet the same leverage amplifies downside risks, as Glassnode flagged long liquidations building around $112,700. With a $4.9 trillion U.S. options expiry coinciding, volatility is poised to spike as traders reposition across both equities and crypto markets.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut and Macroeconomic Tailwinds

The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point cut to 4.00–4.25% marked its first move of 2025 and injected fresh liquidity into risk assets. Chair Jerome Powell framed it as a “risk-management cut,” though the dot plot now implies two more reductions this year, potentially lowering policy rates to 3.50–3.75% heading into 2026. Bitcoin responded swiftly, climbing above $117,000 on expectations of capital rotation away from money-market funds, where $7.2 trillion remains parked. Historically, cryptocurrencies dip 5–8% after initial cuts, only to rally once liquidity stabilizes — a pattern that traders are closely watching now.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Expansion

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to provide a structural bid, with consistent inflows offsetting the hesitation seen in retail wallets. Reddit and institutional chatter reveal a split market, where some warn of overheating while others emphasize BTC’s growing utility as a hedge in easing cycles. Beyond Bitcoin, the approval of ETFs tied to DOGE and XRP has underscored regulators’ evolving stance, fueling speculation that broader ETF expansion could channel billions into the sector. Analysts project $2–3 billion in monthly ETF inflows by the fourth quarter, strengthening Bitcoin’s base above $115,000.

Mining Economics and Post-Halving Concerns

While the price outlook strengthens, miners face structural challenges. At $116,000, large-scale miners remain profitable, but projections for 2026’s halving suggest many operators may struggle unless BTC holds above $100,000. Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar warned that sovereign-backed miners with subsidized energy could dominate future hashrate, shifting balance away from private firms. Hashrate centralization risks add to the debate, even as exchange reserves fell 3% month-over-month, a sign miners are offloading less and supporting market supply dynamics.

Technical Momentum and Market Indicators

The daily structure remains bullish, with Bitcoin rising in an ascending channel since bouncing at $107,270. The 50-SMA at $115,900 and 200-SMA at $113,300 continue to act as structural supports. Indicators present a mixed picture: the RSI at 58 is neutral, the Stochastic at 87 signals overbought conditions, and the MACD at +961 still leans bullish. The ADX at 19 suggests trend strength is weak, implying consolidation. As long as BTC holds the $115,000–$116,000 zone, buyers are favored, but a breakdown below $114,000 could trigger deeper corrections.

Short-Term Scenarios and Price Levels to Watch

Bitcoin’s immediate test is the $118,000 barrier. A confirmed close above this level with rising volume could send BTC toward $120,000 and set up an extension to $123,000. Failure to clear resistance risks another retest of $115,000, with deeper bids concentrated at $113,000. Liquidity clusters between $110,000 and $113,000 remain magnets for any downside shocks, particularly if options-related volatility expands.

Market Verdict: BTC-USD Stays in Buy Zone on Dips

The confluence of Fed easing, institutional ETF inflows, and resilient mining support keeps the broader structure bullish. With BTC sustaining above $115,000, the setup favors continued accumulation, making BTC-USD a Buy on dips toward the $115,000–$116,000 range, targeting $120,000–$125,000 in the near term. Traders must remain alert around $118,000 resistance, where liquidations can either accelerate a breakout or spark a retracement.

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