Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds $91K As Fed Pivot — Analysts Target $170K

Bitcoin Price Forecast - (BTC-USD) Battles to Hold $91,000 As ETF Outflows, Options Expiry, and Fed Rate Speculation Shape Market Structure

Liquidity Compression and the $91,000 Pivot Zone

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $90,974, down 1.95%, marking another volatile session as the market digests multiple macro and technical pressures. The price remains trapped in a narrow corridor between $90,000 and $93,200, reflecting indecision after November’s correction from $126,230, its recent cycle high. Analysts tracking liquidity maps identify a critical “premium fair-value gap” (FVG) between $99,866 and $101,184, signaling the next major liquidity draw where institutional players may re-engage.
On a structural level, Bitcoin’s macro pattern continues to print lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term bearish bias. Current liquidity sweeps show repeated absorption near $91,000, which also corresponds to the maximum pain point in today’s $3.4 billion options expiry. Open interest stands at 36,906 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.91, reflecting cautious hedging rather than panic.

ETF Flows and Institutional Rotation

Bitcoin ETFs remain at the center of price behavior. BlackRock’s IBIT fund has endured five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $2.7 billion, the longest redemption streak since launch. Thursday alone saw roughly $195 million withdrawn from U.S. spot BTC ETFs, with another $42 million leaving ETH-based products. This sustained capital flight explains why BTC-USD has struggled to reclaim the $94,000–$96,200 resistance cluster.
Still, broader year-to-date data show net inflows above $22 billion across spot funds since the SEC’s January 2024 approval, proving that long-term institutional demand remains intact despite current fatigue.

Macro Drivers: Inflation and the Federal Reserve Pivot

The U.S. core PCE inflation index, the Fed’s preferred measure, came in at 2.8%, below prior expectations and supporting market conviction for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting. Futures markets price an 87% probability of easing, while the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizes near 4.11%. Historically, softening inflation strengthens the case for Bitcoin as a speculative risk asset. Yet, this cycle diverges—BTC’s behavior mirrors Nasdaq volatility rather than a non-correlated “digital gold” hedge. During the recent equity drawdowns, BTC fell faster than tech benchmarks, revealing that its correlation to risk assets remains high.

On-Chain Data and Derivative Structure

Liquidity models show significant activity in buy-side sweeps and internal liquidity collection phases, consistent with an accumulation attempt under macro stress. Data from Crypto Fortress indicate that premium retracement continues as internal liquidity fills. The bias remains bearish below $107,500, but a reclaim above $93,200 could neutralize short-term downside momentum.
Meanwhile, miner behavior has shifted: reserves have risen by $220 million, suggesting selective accumulation into weakness. This typically signals miner confidence in post-expiry stabilization.

Comparative Momentum: Altcoins and Market Breadth

Altcoins mirror Bitcoin’s stagnation. Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades near $3,133, down 1.55%; BNB (BNB-USD) sits at $893.99 (-1.53%); Solana (SOL-USD) plunged 5.07% to $135.76; XRP (XRP-USD) declined 2.32% to $2.09; and Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) slipped 4.35%. The total crypto market cap stands at $3.23 trillion, off 1.1%, while daily volume hovers near $114 billion. Roughly 90 of the top 100 coins are red, showing systemic risk aversion ahead of the inflation report.

Institutional Positioning and Bank Exposure

In a notable shift, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) announced plans to let its private-bank clients allocate 1–4% of portfolios to regulated crypto exchange-traded products starting January 2026. Advisors across Merrill and Merrill Edge will gain access to coverage on four major Bitcoin ETFs, including Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, and BlackRock. The decision reflects a normalization of crypto exposure across Wall Street portfolios. Institutional research houses such as BCA argue that the recent drawdown represents “capitulation of excess leverage rather than a break in fundamentals,” implying that macro demand for BTC remains structurally supported as leverage clears.

Derivatives Expiry Impact and Liquidity Sweep Behavior

The $3.4 billion options expiry has become a defining factor for short-term volatility. Traders identify liquidity clusters at $94,500 (upside) and $90,000 (downside). Analysts expect that BTC could sweep the lower cluster before any reversal, a pattern consistent with the liquidity-grab phase often seen during post-expiry sessions. A decisive daily close below $91,000 risks a retest of $85,000, where bulls last mounted a counterattack in late November.

RTX Technology and Predictive Analytics

The recent debate over RTX (Remittix) technology highlights the market’s search for new analytical tools to refine Bitcoin forecasts. RTX, trading near $0.119 per token, has drawn attention as traders explore on-chain data modeling to enhance predictive accuracy. Its adoption underscores a shift from sentiment-driven trading toward data-verified, liquidity-based forecasting—a methodology increasingly applied to Bitcoin’s premium-discount cycles. With $28.4 million in private funding, CertiK verification, and upcoming BitMart and LBank listings, RTX represents the type of project that bridges blockchain utility and price analytics.

Market Structure: Bearish Short-Term, Constructive Long-Term

Technically, Bitcoin remains below its descending one-month trendline, but several indicators suggest a base-building process. The Fear & Greed Index has reverted to 2022-type lows, historically linked to recovery zones. Supply-in-profit metrics are near capitulation levels, and leverage across perpetual futures has normalized after mass liquidations above $120K. With speculative excess drained and miner accumulation resuming, BTC could transition back toward macro-driven momentum once the PCE and Fed cycle stabilize.

Global Context and Regulation

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved spot crypto trading on regulated exchanges, marking a pivotal moment in digital-asset oversight. Bitnomial is expected to launch its BTC and ETH spot markets imminently, allowing institutional traders to access regulated price discovery for the first time under federal supervision. This structural change may gradually shift liquidity from offshore exchanges to the U.S., reinforcing legitimacy and transparency in Bitcoin trading.

Macro Correlation and the “Digital Gold” Narrative

The “digital gold” debate resurfaced after CNBC’s coverage noted Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to equities during recent sell-offs. While gold (XAU/USD) gained 0.75% to $4,274.80, Bitcoin’s correlation to tech stocks undermined its safe-haven thesis. Yet, analysts argue that BTC’s volatility premium remains unmatched: despite a 25–35% correction, it still doubled in value since early 2024, outperforming both equities and metals.

Forecast Range and Analyst Targets

Short-term models cluster BTC within $90,000–$96,200, with support at $90K and resistance near $94.5K. If the $93K–$94K barrier breaks, technical projections suggest an advance toward $101K, the midpoint of the current FVG. Conversely, a failure could expose $84K–$85K, aligning with November lows.
JPMorgan’s strategic framework, anchored to gold parity, values Bitcoin around $170,000 in an optimistic scenario — contingent on ETF inflows resuming and rate cuts materializing through early 2026.

Verdict: Hold with Bullish Bias Above $91,000

Based on ETF flow data, derivative positioning, inflation expectations, and macro liquidity, Bitcoin’s immediate structure remains neutral-to-bullish above $91,000. A sustained close below this level could trigger another leg lower toward $85K, but resilience at this support — combined with institutional re-entry — would favor a return toward $94K–$96K in the short term.
Longer term, the flush of leverage, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption create conditions for a renewed advance into 2026. Current data support a Hold rating with short-term accumulation bias, anticipating renewed momentum once liquidity rebuilds above the $93,200 threshold.

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