Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds Around $92K as Venezuela BTC Hoard, MSCI Shift the Path to $100K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Price Today and Market Context

Trading Range, Momentum and Macro Backdrop

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around the low ninety-thousands, roughly $91,700–$93,000, after failing to secure a daily close above the $94,000–$95,000 supply zone. That band coincides with the 61.8% retracement at about $94,253, measured from the April swing low near $74,508 up to the late-2025 peak around $126,199–$126,200. The current structure is a broad consolidation in the upper half of that range, not a collapse back into the mid-seventies.
Momentum indicators confirm this. Daily RSI sits near 56, comfortably above 50, signalling positive but not overheated trend strength. MACD has turned up with a bullish crossover and rising positive histogram bars, which fits a market digesting prior losses rather than starting a new leg down. Liquidity is real: 24-hour turnover of about $53.64 billion, up roughly 14.4% on the day, shows that every test of the $90,000–$95,000 band is meeting real capital, not illiquid chop. Short term, traders are treating $90,000 as the lower edge of the box and $94,000–$95,000 plus the $100,000 psychological line as a ceiling that still needs to be reclaimed.

Venezuela’s Shadow Bitcoin Reserve and the Supply Overhang on BTC-USD

Venezuela has moved from a side story to a direct on-chain macro risk for BTC-USD. Years of sanctions pushed the regime to operate outside the dollar system, and experts now argue that the state likely accumulated a substantial reserve of Bitcoin alongside gold and physical cash. One investigative claim, not confirmed by chain analysis, floated a potential exposure near $60 billion in Bitcoin, while public on-chain based estimates list at least 240 BTC, worth roughly $22 million at current prices, under government control. Even if the higher number is aggressive, the direction is clear: the country used Bitcoin as part of its sanctions-evasion toolkit.
The infrastructure for that reserve was built over several years. Venezuela experimented with the failed Petro token launched in 2018 and shut down in 2024. Authorities alternated between tolerating and attacking miners, at one point arresting operators and confiscating their hardware and token rewards. Despite an official mining ban in 2024, the country still represented about 0.6% of global Bitcoin hashrate in 2025, implying ongoing activity before the crackdown. That combination of state seizure, mining and covert custody almost certainly left the regime with a fragmented BTC war chest scattered across multiple wallets.
The regime change after President Nicolás Maduro’s ouster now raises three concrete scenarios for BTC-USD. First, a disorderly phase where insiders move coins to private wallets and quietly sell through OTC desks or offshore exchanges. That path would inject unannounced supply into the market and could pressure price during otherwise thin periods. Second, targeted U.S. enforcement actions that freeze or seize wallets linked to the former regime. Seized BTC might be auctioned over time, but it also fits the narrative of a U.S. “strategic Bitcoin reserve” funded by confiscations rather than taxpayer cash. In that case, coins shift from opaque state control in Caracas to long-term cold storage in Washington, which is structurally bullish after any initial volatility. Third, a negotiated arrangement where part of the BTC is used as collateral or settlement in broader geopolitical deals. That is less visible to traders but still changes the eventual float. For now, the Venezuelan stash is a tail-risk supply overhang rather than a base-case driver, but the market is fully aware that a multi-billion-dollar dump or seizure headline can hit the tape at any time.

Leveraged Positioning and Liquidation Clusters Around BTC-USD

Derivatives data show that leverage around BTC-USD is significant but not yet extreme. The open liquidation map indicates approximately $10.65 billion in leveraged long positions that would be forced out if price trades back toward $84,000, while only about $2 billion in shorts would be liquidated above roughly $104,000. That skew means downside moves into the low eighties carry far more forced-selling risk than upside moves into the low hundreds carry forced-buying fuel. A drop into the mid-eighties would erase a large block of margined longs in a short window, amplifying any move driven by macro news.
On Hyperliquid and similar venues, the picture is more balanced but still instructive. A $10,000 downward shift could liquidate around 3,860 BTC in long exposure, while a $10,000 upward move could wipe out roughly 4,100 BTC worth of short exposure. One reading highlighted an even stronger retail skew, with about 6,000 BTC of smaller traders positioned short against only 2,000 BTC long. That mix suggests that while global liquidation notional is still heavier below $84,000, retail bears are vulnerable on the upside. A sharp spike through resistance can rip through crowded shorts faster than a slow grind down through support can bleed out over-levered longs.
For BTC-USD, that creates an asymmetry in how news flows translate into price. A clean macro positive shock above $95,000–$100,000 would run into fewer forced shorts at a global level but would still punish retail shorts and momentum bears. A macro negative shock that knocks Bitcoin from the $90,000s into the low $80,000s would collide with a massive concentration of margined longs, turning a normal correction into a vacuum down to the next structural demand zone near $80,000.

ETF Flows, CME Curves and Institutional Appetite for BTC-USD

Institutional flows into BTC-USD are neither euphoric nor absent; they are tactical. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. registered approximately $697.25 million in net inflows on Monday, followed immediately by about $243.24 million in net outflows on Tuesday. That alternating pattern signals hesitation: large investors are engaged, but they are trading Bitcoin around macro events rather than building uninterrupted strategic allocations at current levels. They buy dips into risk-on sessions and trim into strength when data surprise on rates or geopolitics.
On regulated futures, positioning shows similar caution. CME participation remains relatively subdued compared with most of 2024 and 2025, even after an 11% rebound in open interest from late-December lows. Futures premiums have recovered from the softest points and are trending modestly higher, but they sit well below the extremes seen during prior mania phases. Funding rates around the market are described as subdued to slightly negative, indicating that aggressive long-only leverage has not taken over.
The implication for BTC-USD is straightforward. Institutions are not dumping Bitcoin; they are managing exposure. The MSCI decision to keep crypto-treasury names such as Strategy (MSTR) inside its indexes removes a significant structural risk. Forced index-tracking liquidations have been taken off the table for now, and that reduction in systemic equity-crypto linkage makes it easier for allocators to hold or rebuild BTC via listed vehicles. Combined with roughly $500 billion added to U.S. equities in a single session and fresh all-time highs in the S&P 500, the high-beta risk backdrop is favourable for Bitcoin as long as macro data do not trigger a broad de-risking.

Macro Correlation Shock: BTC-USD and the Japanese Yen

A new macro relationship is reshaping models for BTC-USD. Over the last ninety days, Bitcoin has tracked the Japanese yen with an unprecedentedly tight link, with a reported correlation around 0.86 between BTC and a yen index. A correlation of 0.86 implies that roughly 73% of short-term Bitcoin price moves can be statistically explained by shifts in the yen. That is a radical departure from the usual narrative of Bitcoin as an uncorrelated or weakly correlated “digital gold”.
The driver is policy. Since October 2025, Japan’s currency story has been dominated by yield-curve shifts, intervention risks and the market’s attempt to price the end of ultra-easy policy. Bitcoin’s behaviour shows that traders have started treating BTC-USD as a leveraged expression of that theme. When the yen strengthens on expectations of reduced policy stress, Bitcoin has tended to firm with it. When the yen weakens sharply, Bitcoin has often traded lower, as global risk assets adjust to shifting funding conditions.
For portfolio construction, this correlation undermines the idea of Bitcoin as a clean hedge. Instead of acting like an independent store of value, BTC-USD has been behaving like a derivative tied to Japanese monetary risk. If this relationship persists, macro desks will increasingly model Bitcoin not only off U.S. real rates and tech equities, but also off yen flows. For now, the correlation is high enough that any rapid move in JPY should be watched as a direct input into short-term BTC-USD volatility.

Technical Structure: Support, Resistance and Fibonacci Map for BTC-USD

Technically, BTC-USD is sitting in a well-defined multi-month framework. The April low near $74,508 and the late-2025 all-time high around $126,199–$126,200 mark the broader leg higher. The current pullback stalled above $90,000, which has now acted multiple times as horizontal support. Above price, the key retracement level at about $94,253, derived from the 61.8% Fibonacci level on that leg, is the immediate pivot. Bitcoin already tested that zone on Monday and failed to close through it, which explains the present drift back toward $91,900–$92,000.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA around $91,745 is the first short-term alarm bell. A decisive daily close below that moving average opens the way to a deeper test of $90,000. A break and hold below $90,000 would shift focus toward the stronger support cluster in the mid-eighties around $84,000–$85,000, which is also where the large long-liquidation block sits. Below that zone, the next structural demand level is near $80,000, where longer-term buyers previously stepped in.
On the upside, Bitcoin needs two steps. First, reclaim and close above $94,253 on a daily basis to show that the rejection was a temporary pause rather than the start of a topping process. Second, clear the $100,000 psychological barrier with volume and follow-through. Short-term projection models in the data set show potential path points at $93,718 on January 8 and $98,699 on January 10, with a possible spike toward $101,062 by mid-month. For February, some models flag a maximum target near $105,000, implying about 13.18% upside from current levels if the resistance zones give way. Longer-dated forecasts then call for a cooling phase later in 2026, with possible year-end levels around $74,425, but those are conditioned on macro drag and sustained yen linkage rather than pure crypto flows.

Flows, Sentiment and ETF Behaviour Around BTC-USD

Sentiment indicators paint a picture of cautious engagement rather than panic or mania. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has moved back to neutral for the first time since October, which fits price action around $92,000: traders are no longer in full risk-off mode, but conviction in a new leg to all-time highs is not unanimous. ETF data capture the same mood. Large single-day inflows, such as $697.25 million, show that dip-buying demand from institutions is still robust. The following $243.24 million outflow day shows that many of those same players are actively trading around positions instead of locking them away.
Derivatives funding rates that remain low or briefly negative tell you leveraged longs are not yet dominating. Open interest on CME has climbed about 11% off late-December lows, but remains materially below the heights of 2024–2025, when each move above a resistance band was accompanied by aggressive leverage. Futures premiums have risen modestly in the last few sessions, reflecting improving sentiment, but they sit at levels consistent with normal carry rather than froth.
Taken together, these indicators suggest that BTC-USD is in a re-accumulation band around the low ninety-thousands. The market is willing to buy dips and sell rips, but it has not yet committed to a full-throttle breakout or a structural reversal. That is exactly the environment where macro surprises and single headlines, such as a Venezuelan stash revelation or a sharp move in yen, can decide direction for the next leg.

Scenario Framework for BTC-USD: Bullish, Base and Bearish Paths

The bullish path for BTC-USD over the next one to three months requires three concrete conditions. First, defence of the $90,000 floor and especially the $85,000 area where long liquidations concentrate. Second, a sustained daily close above the $94,253 retracement that converts the current ceiling into support. Third, a clean break through $100,000 with volume confirmation as equity markets continue to print highs and the MSCI decision on crypto treasuries keeps institutional confidence intact. Under that setup, the model targets near $101,062 in the short term and up to $105,000 in February look achievable, with any Venezuelan seizure scenario that locks BTC into U.S. custody adding to the constructive backdrop.
The base case keeps Bitcoin in a wide range between roughly $85,000 and $100,000 for a longer period. In that lane, ETF flows continue to swing between strong inflows and moderate outflows, CME positioning slowly rebuilds but does not spike, and macro data such as U.S. labour numbers and rate expectations oscillate without decisive breaks. The yen correlation around 0.86 persists, but policy signals from Japan remain gradual enough that the link does not trigger extreme volatility. In this environment, traders can work ranges, while longer-term investors accumulate on retests of $90,000 and trim near $98,000–$100,000.
The bearish path requires a decisive loss of $85,000 and a cascade into the $80,000 region driven by long liquidations and a shift in macro tone. Triggers could include a faster-than-expected tightening bias from central banks, a disorderly dump of a large Venezuelan stash into the market, or a sharp reversal in global risk assets that forces funds to liquidate BTC to raise cash. If that occurs, the longer-term projections pointing to $74,425 by late 2026 move from theoretical to realistic. Given current data, that scenario is a risk, not the base case, but it cannot be ignored while the liquidation cluster below $84,000 remains intact.