Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Slides to $107K After Breaking 7-Year Streak

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Extends Losses After Breaking Seven-Year “Uptober” Streak

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading under $108,000, losing nearly 3.1% in 24 hours after a volatile start to November and ending its seven-year “Uptober” streak. It closed October with a 4% decline, marking the first negative October performance since 2018, as risk appetite weakened amid tighter financial conditions and cautious institutional flows. The correction follows a flash-crash earlier in October that dragged Bitcoin to $104,000, erasing much of its Q3 momentum. Despite recovering from those lows, BTC remains roughly 12% below its recent peak at $122,000, and sentiment has turned defensive as macroeconomic headwinds, ETF outflows, and negative retail signals converge.

Macro and Liquidity Pressure Deepen BTC-USD Weakness

The current pullback is primarily driven by changing monetary expectations after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments suggested no guaranteed December rate cut. The probability of another reduction dropped from 90% to 63%, sharply tightening liquidity outlooks across risk assets. Bitcoin, which tends to react to real-yield and liquidity shifts faster than equities, saw accelerated selling as traders adjusted positioning. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains stuck near 35 points, in the “fear” zone, reflecting persistent uncertainty among both retail and institutional investors. Nearly $800 million exited Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last week, while total crypto market capitalization slid below $3.6 trillion, marking a weekly decline of over 3.5%.

The macro backdrop has further complicated recovery potential. Ongoing U.S.–China trade friction and unstable oil prices have strengthened the dollar, pushing investors toward defensive assets such as gold (XAU/USD), which stabilized near $4,010 per ounce, while risk assets like Bitcoin retreated. Despite rate cuts hinted for early 2026, the immediate environment remains unfavorable for speculative inflows, especially after a series of strong U.S. employment prints reduced near-term easing prospects.

Technical Landscape: Support Under Pressure Between $103K–$106K

Technically, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of its equilibrium range between $105,000 and $116,000, with clear lower highs since mid-October showing consistent supply pressure. The 200-day moving average, now hovering near $109,000, has turned into dynamic resistance after BTC closed multiple sessions below it. On the four-hour chart, BTC trades inside an ascending wedge formation, with the lower trendline retested around $106,000 — a critical zone that aligns with the broader demand block. A decisive break below $106K could expose the $102K–$100K range, representing the next institutional demand area. If that fails, traders could see a sharper capitulation toward the $88,000 level, which corresponds with Bitcoin’s realized price and has historically acted as a cyclical floor.

Conversely, if Bitcoin rebounds and closes back above $110K–$113K, it would trigger a bear-trap pattern, potentially driving a rally back to $116K, with further extension toward $120K–$122K. This mid-range compression suggests accumulation by longer-term players as intraday volatility remains muted but risk remains skewed to the downside until the 200-day moving average is reclaimed.

On-Chain Flows and Exchange Divergences Reveal Mixed Sentiment

On-chain data highlight a divergence between total exchange reserves and localized exchange activity. Total reserves across global exchanges continue to decline — a historically bullish signal reflecting long-term accumulation — yet Binance has shown a notable rise in BTC deposits, suggesting active positioning or hedging by institutions. This dichotomy indicates that while broader market participants are withdrawing to cold storage, major liquidity centers are preparing for potential volatility. Historically, such inflows to dominant exchanges often precede short-term price swings rather than long-term distribution phases.

Adding to this, the Coinbase premium — the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) and the global average — turned negative in late October. Normally, BTC on Coinbase trades at a premium when U.S. retail demand is strong; the shift to a discount implies weaker local appetite. The negative premium also coincides with the downturn in U.S. Bitcoin ETF flows, suggesting that retail participation remains soft even as institutions accumulate through alternative channels.

Institutional Activity and Treasury Expansion Continue Despite Volatility

Despite the short-term weakness, corporate and institutional accumulation continues. Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy, NASDAQ:MSTR) announced an additional purchase of 397 bitcoins between Oct 27 – Nov 2 for $45.6 million, at an average cost of $114,771 per BTC. This brings its total holdings to approximately 641,205 bitcoins valued at $69 billion. The firm’s cumulative acquisition cost now stands at $47.5 billion, translating to an average cost basis of $74,057 per BTC. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor reaffirmed that the company views Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset, implying no near-term intent to sell. While the timing of this accumulation slightly precedes the current dip, it demonstrates continued confidence in the structural trajectory toward institutionalization.

Such treasury moves counterbalance ETF outflows and reinforce the argument that corporate balance sheets are slowly internalizing Bitcoin exposure. Even as short-term holders exit, long-term holders (LTH) remain net accumulators, with data suggesting minimal movement of older coins despite the pullback.

Cycle Metrics and Valuation Ratios Signal Accumulation Zone

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP) sits near $113,000, marking a key pivot. If Bitcoin sustains below this, it signals that newer investors are in net loss, often leading to capitulation waves. But if BTC recovers above it, the average new entrant turns profitable, which historically reignites capital inflows. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently oscillates around 1.05, modestly above its neutral line. Historically, large bull phases ignite once MVRV surpasses 1.33, which corresponds to potential price targets around $160K based on current realized metrics.

From the long-term perspective, the Long-Term Holder MVRV stands around 4.3× its realized base (~ $37,400), implying a fair-value zone near $163K–$165K — aligning with upper-cycle projections derived from short-term holder data. Rolling two-year MVRV Z-score readings are still below 3.0, closer to traditional buy zones than euphoric peaks, suggesting that structurally Bitcoin remains in an accumulation phase rather than distribution.

Altcoin Correlation and Broader Market Spillover

Broader crypto assets mirrored Bitcoin’s weakness. Ethereum (ETH-USD) fell 6.4% to $3,719, while BNB dropped nearly 6% to $1,018.59. XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) each slid between 4–5%, and meme-tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE) retreated over 5%, erasing October’s speculative gains. The synchronized decline reflects shrinking liquidity and risk reduction across DeFi and layer-1 protocols. While some niche assets, such as the politically-themed $TRUMP token, rose 1.6%, most altcoins are under pressure as traders prioritize Bitcoin dominance and stablecoin safety.

The BTC Dominance Index has climbed back toward 55%, its highest reading since early 2024, showing that despite the price drop, capital is rotating back to Bitcoin as the relative “safe haven” within crypto. Historically, such dominance spikes appear near market bottoms rather than peaks, adding nuance to the current cycle’s setup.

Structural Outlook and Risk Assessment

The technical and on-chain data suggest that Bitcoin’s current weakness is cyclical, not structural. The loss of the “Uptober” streak signals short-term exhaustion rather than a full-cycle reversal. The range between $103K and $113K now forms the critical battlefield for market control. A sustained close above $113K would confirm renewed momentum toward $120K, whereas a decisive break below $103K could trigger a broader correction toward $88K. Institutional accumulation, corporate treasuries like Strategy Inc., and declining exchange reserves continue to anchor long-term bullish structures.

However, the near-term environment remains fragile. Negative retail sentiment, ETF outflows, and macro headwinds keep volatility high. The equilibrium phase — where liquidity oscillates between large buyers and sellers — suggests the market is resetting before its next major directional move.

Verdict: HOLD With Bullish Medium-Term Bias

Based on price structure, macro drivers, and cycle data, the near-term bias for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is neutral-to-bearish until it reclaims the $109K–$113K zone. Medium-term projections, supported by MVRV and realized-price models, remain bullish, pointing to potential highs between $160K and $200K in 2026 if current accumulation patterns persist.

Position View: HOLD — maintain exposure for long-term accumulation; avoid adding short-term leverage until support at $103K–$106K is confirmed. The structural bull trend remains intact, but macro uncertainty caps near-term upside potential.

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