Bitcoin Price Nears $119K as Fed Cut Hopes Crumble on CPI Data

Bitcoin Rises Toward $119K Premarket as CPI and Fed Policy Tensions Mount

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to $118,804.10 in early Tuesday trade, up +0.93% on the day, as risk sentiment shifted ahead of the U.S. open. The rally comes just hours after June CPI data showed a stronger-than-expected 2.7% YoY increase, reinforcing inflation stickiness and casting fresh doubt on a September rate cut.

BTC’s upside move coincides with a broader premarket lift in risk assets like NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), though equities remain directionless overall. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) climbed toward 4.5%, signaling a more hawkish Fed expectation, which historically pressures Bitcoin—but not today.

Some analysts argue Bitcoin’s sharp bounce above $118K signals growing use as a geopolitical and policy hedge. With the Fed’s rate path now uncertain and Trump intensifying tariff threats, crypto assets may be reasserting their utility as non-sovereign risk-off plays.

Macro Triggers Align: CPI, PPI, and Tariff Volatility

The market is bracing for back-to-back macro shocks. After CPI’s hot read, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is due next and expected to show additional upstream pricing pressure. Traders are now pricing in a ~50% chance of a rate cut in September, sharply down from over 70% just weeks ago.

This macro environment favors uncorrelated assets like Bitcoin and gold, both of which are climbing ahead of the U.S. session. Gold (GC=F) rose +0.26% to $3,345.30, while BTC added nearly $1,100 in the past 24 hours.

Technical Setup: BTC Eyes $120K Breakout

Bitcoin is now testing short-term resistance near $119,000, a breakout point from last week’s range. Chart watchers note the formation of a reversal pattern with bullish continuation implications. If momentum holds, BTC could retest $120K before the end of the week.

Key technical levels:

• Support: $117,000, $115,200

• Resistance: $119,200, $120,800

• Momentum trigger: Break above $120,000 could invite trend-following inflows

ETF Inflows, Crypto Bill Vote Add Fuel

Flows into Bitcoin ETFs have resumed, albeit modestly, signaling institutional support remains intact. Meanwhile, sentiment is also supported by optimism ahead of a key U.S. crypto regulation bill vote, which some believe could provide clearer legal frameworks for digital assets.

This backdrop of policy tension, yield volatility, and institutional demand is helping Bitcoin outperform traditional risk assets at today’s open.

Verdict: BTC Bullish Premarket

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD): BUY – Trading near $119K with strong macro tailwinds, technical breakout setup, and rising geopolitical hedge appeal. Watch for $120K test into U.S. session.

BTC now leads risk sentiment into the Tuesday open — defying tightening yield conditions and signaling that crypto is back in macro focus.

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