Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD trading on $111K, JPMorgan Catalyst Drive Recovery

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds Firm as Volatility Compresses

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $111,600, stabilizing after a sharp correction from its $126,200 October peak. The pullback of over $15,000 washed out leveraged longs but left the uptrend intact, with the 200-day moving average at $108,200 acting as a solid base. The market is currently trapped between the 20-day EMA ($111,800) and 50-day EMA ($113,300), a compression pattern often preceding large directional moves.
A decisive breakout above $114,100 could launch a rally toward $116,000–$120,000, while a slip below $111,000 might test $109,700–$108,000. Trading volume has eased 21% to $40 billion, signaling market exhaustion after roughly $40.5 million in long liquidations, which effectively purged excess speculation.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Accumulation Strengthen the Market Floor

Institutional demand is rebuilding momentum. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs registered $20 million in inflows this week, reversing September’s outflows and signaling renewed interest from large funds. Simultaneously, exchange balances continue to decline—$12 million in net withdrawals were recorded on October 25—showing that holders prefer self-custody over trading exposure.
A 1,000 BTC purchase by a major asset manager reinforced whale accumulation near $110,000, confirming this area as a critical support. With short-term holders’ cost basis at $113,100, reclaiming that line would flip near-term momentum bullish. Meanwhile, institutional gateways such as 401(k) Bitcoin access expected in 2025 could create a steady inflow pipeline from long-term retirement accounts.

Wall Street Adoption Accelerates With JPMorgan’s Collateral Program

Confidence in Bitcoin’s legitimacy surged after JPMorgan Chase announced it would accept Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for institutional loans by year-end. The initiative, operated through regulated custodians, effectively upgrades Bitcoin to a fully recognized financial instrument used in traditional secured lending.
Europe’s MiCA framework adds further credibility: Swiss platform Relai secured licensing approval to offer regulated Bitcoin investments and SEPA-based transfers, expanding institutional access across the continent. Together, these developments mark Bitcoin’s evolution from a speculative asset into a core component of modern financial infrastructure.

Macro Tailwinds and Global Liquidity Reinforce Accumulation

Macro conditions remain supportive. U.S. CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, below the 0.4% forecast, bolstering expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. Simultaneously, China’s M2 money supply hit record highs as Beijing’s stimulus measures ramped up, historically a catalyst for capital migration into crypto markets.
On-chain indicators such as the Short-Term Holders’ NUPL metric sit in a neutral zone, often preceding upside reversals. Sustained closes above $110,000 will confirm that the market has fully absorbed selling pressure and is preparing for the next leg higher.

Exchange Outflows and Supply Compression Signal Strength

Data from Coinglass confirm persistent withdrawals from centralized exchanges—$12 million on October 25 alone. Total exchange balances are at multi-year lows, a clear indicator of long-term holding behavior. Historically, such sustained outflows precede rallies as liquid supply tightens and even modest demand spikes push prices sharply upward.

Derivative Liquidations Reset Leverage and Stabilize the Market

This week’s $40 million long liquidation wave near $111,000 cleared over-leveraged traders following rejection at $114,000. Funding rates have since normalized, and open interest is gradually rebuilding. Ethereum (ETH-USD) saw even larger liquidations—$44 million—but similar stabilization afterward. The reset positions Bitcoin for a more sustainable advance, as structural leverage now aligns with spot demand rather than speculation.

Technical Picture Points to an Impending Breakout

The 20-day EMA ($110,300) recently crossed above the 50-day EMA ($110,200)—a bullish signal indicating building momentum. The RSI around 60 shows improving sentiment without reaching overbought levels. A series of spinning-top candles and a bullish engulfing pattern confirm accumulation. A close above $114,100 could trigger a push toward $117,000–$120,000, while falling below $111,000 may spark a temporary pullback toward $106,700.

Retail Caution Contrasts With Institutional Confidence

Prediction markets on Polymarket show a 52% probability of Bitcoin ending the week between $110,000 and $112,000, and a 36% chance of $112,000–$114,000—signs that traders expect consolidation. This stands in contrast to deep-pocketed institutions quietly accumulating. Historically, this divergence between cautious retail behavior and strategic institutional buying marks the early phase of prolonged bull cycles

Ecosystem Innovation Expands Through Layer-2 Development

Beyond price action, Bitcoin’s ecosystem continues to evolve. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), built on the Solana Virtual Machine, aims to combine Bitcoin’s settlement security with Solana-level speed. Its presale has already exceeded $24.7 million at $0.013165 per token, highlighting investor appetite for Bitcoin-based scalability. Such projects shift Bitcoin’s identity from a static store of value toward a programmable financial layer capable of hosting decentralized applications.

Institutional Strategy Shifts From Custody to Collateralization

Major banks like Morgan Stanley and BNY Mellon are broadening crypto-custody and lending infrastructure, following JPMorgan’s lead. Allowing Bitcoin to serve as loan collateral introduces a feedback loop: as BTC’s value rises, borrowing power increases, deepening its integration within corporate balance sheets. This mirrors how gold transitioned from reserve asset to collateral benchmark—a role Bitcoin now appears poised to inherit.

Strategic View and Verdict

Bitcoin’s structural setup remains decisively constructive. The correction from $126,000 to $108,000 resembles consolidation within a broader uptrend rather than the start of a bear phase. Support at $108,000 has held through multiple tests, and declining exchange reserves confirm investor conviction.
If Bitcoin closes above $113,500, the path opens toward $120,000–$125,000 before year-end. Stability within the $110,000–$112,000 corridor warrants patience, while a breakdown below $108,000 would call for short-term caution.

Verdict: Buy Bias above $113,500; Hold Neutral within range; Reassess only if $108,000 fails.
Bitcoin is advancing into a mature phase of adoption—where regulation, liquidity, and institutional finance converge to define its next major rally.

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