Copper Price Forecast: HG=F Targets $4.95 Near-Term and $11,000 Long-Term

Copper (HG=F) Holds $4.62 After Reaching 15-Month Highs

Copper futures on Comex (HG=F) trade at $4.62 per pound, easing from the $4.71 peak that marked the strongest level in 15 months. On the LME, copper stands at $10,147 per ton, slightly under the $10,192 high. Despite the modest retreat, copper maintains a bullish structure, with the key support at $4.26 acting as the technical base and resistance seen at $4.75. Breaking above this level would open the way toward $4.95, a threshold that could accelerate momentum into 2026.

Federal Reserve Cuts Drive Demand for Copper

The coming Federal Reserve decision on September 17 has become the most immediate catalyst. Futures markets price in a 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, with some betting on a 50 bps move. A weaker U.S. dollar, now at 96.28 on the DXY, supports commodities across the board. For copper, lower rates reduce financing costs for industrial expansion and increase speculative inflows. If the Fed signals an easing cycle into 2026, copper prices could test $11,000 per ton on the LME, extending the current rally.

Copper Gains Critical Mineral Status in U.S. Policy Shift

The U.S. Geological Survey has proposed adding copper to the country’s list of critical minerals, citing its central role in electrification, renewable infrastructure, and defense. Modeling across 1,200 disruption scenarios showed copper’s supply chain as highly exposed to bottlenecks in refining and imports. This designation could bring tax incentives, faster permitting, and new funding for mining and recycling projects in the U.S., reshaping the domestic supply base while strengthening copper’s long-term demand profile.

Tariff Risk Creates Price Volatility Across Exchanges

At the start of 2025, copper markets diverged as traders priced in Section 232 tariffs. Comex held a $3,079 per ton premium over LME, only to collapse when refined copper was excluded from duties in late July. Since then, the premium narrowed but still averages $130 per ton, far above the historical $18 per ton. Policy risk remains alive, with potential 15% tariffs in 2027 and 30% in 2028 under Commerce Department recommendations. This future overhang keeps investors cautious despite bullish fundamentals.

China and Chile Push Supply, but Regional Divergence Appears

Chile projects copper production to rise toward 6 million tons per year by 2027, even as Codelco and Teck Resources face operational setbacks. In China, copper wire prices rose 3% to $11,204 per ton, while scrap prices increased 2.9% to $10,862 per ton, reflecting domestic tightness. In contrast, U.S. producer prices have dropped, with grade 102 copper sliding 13.6% to $5.97 per pound and grades 110 and 122 down 14.1% to $5.72 per pound. These divergences underline a market where Asia remains undersupplied while North America temporarily enjoys surpluses.

Hindustan Copper Expands Mining to Meet Rising Demand

In India, Hindustan Copper Ltd. (NSE: HINDCOPPER) has announced a ₹200 billion capex program (~$2.4 billion) to lift annual ore capacity from 4 MTPA to 12.2 MTPA by FY31. The company aims to produce 4 million tons of ore in FY26, translating into 31,000 tonnes of metal-in-concentrate, compared with 24,000 tonnes last year. A long-term 20-year contract with JSW Group worth ₹24 billion ensures predictable revenue. Shares have rallied 33.7% over six months, trading well above their April 2025 low of ₹183.9. Hindustan Copper’s expansion reinforces India’s ambition to reduce reliance on imports as domestic EV and infrastructure demand climbs.

Funds Retreat but Maintain Long Bias

The tariff exclusion in July triggered a sharp retreat by investment funds, which had been heavily positioned long. Goldman Sachs was forced to walk back its bullish call after the sudden collapse of the Comex premium. Despite this, positioning remains net long, with funds expected to re-enter on dips. Structural drivers such as electrification and renewable energy are projected to add over 1.7 million tons of annual demand by 2027, making copper too critical for long-term investors to ignore.

Short-Term Technical Outlook for HG=F

Copper’s immediate trading band sits between $4.50 and $4.75 per pound, with the key pivot at $4.62. RSI near 60 signals further room before overbought conditions, while MACD momentum supports additional upside. If HG=F breaks above $4.75, the next objective is $4.95, with scope to reach $5.20 in the coming months. A hawkish Fed surprise would risk a pullback to $4.40 or even $4.20, but physical demand and policy support should limit downside.

Investment Verdict on Copper (HG=F)

Copper’s positioning has shifted decisively after reaching 15-month highs. With the Fed set to ease, U.S. policy reclassifying copper as critical, Hindustan Copper scaling production, and Chile expanding supply capacity, the metal is structurally supported despite tariff overhang. The numbers point to $4.95 near-term, $5.20 mid-term, and $11,000 per ton on the LME long-term. Based on the data, Copper (HG=F) is a Buy, with dips toward $4.40–$4.50 representing attractive accumulation zones for both traders and long-term investors.

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