Ethereum Price Forecast: $426M Whale Bets Signal Bullish Breakout Toward $4,000 to ETH-USD

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Price Forecast: Whales Open $426 Million in Long Positions as ETH Rebounds Above $3,100 and Targets the $4,000 Zone

Institutional Accumulation, Shrinking Exchange Supply, and Fusaka Upgrade Set the Stage for the Next Major Ethereum Rally

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is regaining momentum as smart money returns to the market. The asset trades near $3,140, up 4.1% over the last 24 hours, rebounding from the $2,621 low recorded on November 21. The recent surge coincides with aggressive institutional accumulation, record exchange outflows, and major technical developments on the Ethereum network. Data from Lookonchain shows that three “smart” whales collectively opened $425.98 million in leveraged long positions, signaling renewed conviction that the downside is exhausted. One whale, BitcoinOG (1011short), holds a $169.4 million ETH position, while Anti-CZ has a $194 million exposure, and pension-usdt.eth added another $62.5 million long bet. These trades collectively mark the strongest coordinated long positioning since June, suggesting institutional investors are preparing for a continuation rally.

Technical Structure Turns Bullish: Ascending Triangle Targets $4,020

The ETH/USD chart shows a clear breakout attempt from an ascending triangle formation. Price action has been consolidating between $2,900 and $3,250 for several weeks, but the latest close above the descending trendline confirms structural improvement. The triangle’s measured move projects an upside target near $4,020, roughly 28% above current levels. Technical momentum has strengthened, with the RSI rising from 28 to 50, confirming increasing buying pressure. However, immediate resistance stands between $3,350–$3,550, where both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs intersect. A decisive break above $3,250, followed by sustained closes above $3,400, would validate the pattern and open the path toward the $4,000–$4,100 zone. On the downside, $2,900 remains the key support, followed by the deeper $2,500 zone if volatility spikes.

Whales and Institutions Drive the Accumulation Trend

Institutional data reinforces this technical strength. BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, added $199 million worth of ETH last week, bringing total holdings to 3.73 million ETH, or approximately $13.3 billion at current market prices. The move came alongside multiple large whale transactions, showing that accumulation is broad-based and strategic. This type of buying historically precedes multi-month uptrends in ETH-USD, as whales and institutions absorb available supply and reduce volatility. Analysts expect that if open interest continues to expand in the next seven days, price acceleration toward the $3,800–$4,000 area is increasingly probable.

Exchange Balances Hit Historic Lows, Signaling Tight Supply

Ethereum’s exchange balance has fallen to 8.7% of total supply, the lowest on record, according to Glassnode. The level represents a 43% drop since July, a direct result of tokens being moved into staking, Layer 2 protocols, and long-term custody. This marks the tightest on-chain supply environment Ethereum has ever experienced. For context, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) currently has 14.8% of its supply sitting on exchanges — nearly double Ethereum’s liquid ratio. The ongoing decline in available ETH increases the likelihood of a supply shock if demand accelerates. Historical precedents show that every 1% decline in liquid ETH availability can translate to a 6–8% upside adjustment in price under steady demand conditions.

Fusaka Upgrade Deepens Deflationary Mechanics

The Fusaka upgrade, implemented on December 3, has introduced a “minimum guarantee mechanism” for blob fees — effectively linking Layer 2 transaction activity to Ethereum’s burn mechanism. By requiring Layer 2 chains to contribute economically to the main chain, Ethereum’s fee burn rate will rise significantly. According to LD Capital’s Jack Yi, blob-related fees could account for 30–50% of all ETH burned by 2026, potentially leading to up to eight times more ETH burned annually than in 2024. This enhanced burn structure solidifies Ethereum’s deflationary model, supporting a long-term price floor that compounds with the declining exchange supply.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds and ETF Pressure Balance the Picture

The macro backdrop also supports Ethereum’s rebound. Markets are pricing an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut this week, reducing yields and favoring risk assets. However, Ethereum spot ETFs remain under mild selling pressure, recording outflows of $75.2 million on Friday and $41.5 million the day prior. Despite these redemptions, Ethereum’s 24-hour trading volume has surged to $27.44 billion, confirming that real market participation is returning. If ETF outflows stabilize and the Fed confirms easing, institutional flows could reverse sharply positive, accelerating the price rally toward $3,800–$4,000.

On-Chain Metrics Confirm a Reaccumulation Phase

Open Interest (OI) has been rising steadily from its mid-November low, climbing 6.2% over the past week. While still below the September peak, this increase combined with rising price levels indicates healthy long-side reaccumulation rather than speculative leverage. Funding rates remain neutral, suggesting that the move is spot-driven — typically a sustainable structure for multi-week rallies. Meanwhile, daily active addresses have rebounded to 505,000, and total staked ETH stands at 32.8 million, or 27.1% of circulating supply, further tightening liquid availability.

Technical Scenarios and Price Levels to Watch

The short-term technical roadmap revolves around $3,250 resistance and $2,900 support. A confirmed breakout above $3,250, ideally on rising volume above $30 billion daily, should validate the bullish continuation pattern. From there, momentum targets $3,500, $3,800, and ultimately the $4,020 measured objective. Conversely, failure to maintain the $2,900–$3,000 base risks a pullback to $2,700 and potentially $2,500, though such a decline would likely attract strong institutional bids.

Broader Network and Layer 2 Ecosystem Developments

Beyond price action, Ethereum’s fundamental ecosystem continues to strengthen. ZKsync confirmed it will deprecate ZKsync Lite in 2026, phasing out its legacy zero-knowledge rollup in favor of higher-performance architectures like ZK Stack and Prividium. These moves emphasize a long-term shift toward efficiency and scalability, reinforcing Ethereum’s dominance in the Layer 2 ecosystem. Simultaneously, the average Layer 1 transaction fee has dropped to $0.01, the lowest since 2022, improving user accessibility and reinforcing Ethereum’s competitiveness against Solana (SOL-USD) and other L1 challengers.

Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment

Sentiment remains cautious but constructive. Retail traders have not yet aggressively re-entered the market, allowing larger holders to accumulate at low volatility. ETH-USD futures positioning shows declining short exposure and rising long demand from top traders, consistent with early-stage bull-market formation. Social dominance for Ethereum-related terms has risen 19% week-on-week, signaling growing retail awareness but still far from euphoric conditions — an ideal setup for a sustained move.

Verdict — Ethereum (ETH-USD): BUY (Target $4,000, Support $2,900)

At current levels near $3,140, Ethereum displays the strongest combination of on-chain tightening, institutional accumulation, and structural deflation in over a year. With $426 million in new whale long positions, a projected $4,020 technical target, and the Fusaka upgrade amplifying the burn rate, ETH-USD remains positioned for a rally toward $4,000–$4,100 in the coming weeks. Unless macro conditions shift sharply, the bias is bullish, with solid technical support at $2,900 and institutional demand capping downside volatility.
Rating: BUY — target $4,000; near-term resistance $3,350–$3,550; key support $2,900.

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