Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Battles to Hold $3,060 as Ethereum ETF Outflows Hit $260M

Ethereum ETH-USD Under Heavy Pressure As Price Collapses Toward $3,000 With Market Structure Fractured

Ethereum moves inside one of its most compressed corrective phases of the year as ETH-USD sinks toward $3,053–$3,060, a zone that marks a 35% drawdown from the yearly peak and the lowest print since mid-July. The breakdown started immediately after the failure at $3,800–$3,900, where repeated lower-high rejections confirmed seller dominance and turned both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages into active resistance barriers. Every rally attempt stalled before touching $3,595, showing how aggressive supply pockets have formed above the market. The entire downtrend is defined by persistent failures to regain the broken trendline, while the channel itself tightens around $3,000, forcing the market into a binary outcome: either reclaim the abandoned neckline at $3,600 or accept deeper continuation into the mid-$2,600 liquidity void.

ETH-USD Liquidity Conditions Shift As ETF Outflows Reach $260 Million And Futures Open Interest Collapses

Flows confirm how sentiment eroded. Six consecutive sessions of withdrawals from Ethereum ETFs pulled more than $260M out of the ecosystem, driving total ETF holdings down toward $20B after initially absorbing roughly $13B of inflows earlier in the year. The unwind shows that American investors are stepping back as macro uncertainty grows. At the same time, open interest in ETH futures has plunged by over 50% since October, revealing the depth of the risk-off shift. Yet an important nuance emerges: despite the turbulence, institutional positioning still ties roughly $300B of value to Ethereum, signaling that long-term strategic capital remains engaged even as tactical traders exit. This split creates a volatile backdrop where short-term downside pressure does not fully align with long-term appetite.

On-Chain Positioning Turns Constructive As Exchange Balances Fall From 16.36M To 11.96M ETH

While price action is heavy, the supply footprint tells a different story. Exchange balances have fallen from 16.36 million ETH in July to 11.96 million ETH today, a steep reduction that typically signals accumulation rather than capitulation. Moving tokens off exchanges does not eliminate the risk of liquidation cascades, but it reduces the available float for market-wide selloffs and historically appears at the mid-stage of major corrections. The shrinking supply is one of the few clearly bullish signals in the current structure. The market also shows pronounced liquidity imbalances overhead, especially in the $3,600–$3,900 pocket. Resting long liquidations cluster heavily in that band, acting as a magnet whenever Ethereum tries to lift from local lows. If ETH-USD can reclaim $3,450–$3,550, the path toward the large imbalance at $3,800–$3,900 becomes the dominant scenario for a fast, aggressive squeeze.

Technical Compression Deepens As ETH-USD Trades Inside a Falling Wedge While Buyers Absorb Aggressively Near $3,000

On the 4-hour structure, every approach toward the wedge’s descending boundary shows strong buyer absorption, with repeated long wicks forming between $3,000 and $3,100. This is the same region where medium-term buyers defended price during the summer consolidation. Today, the wedge maintains a corrective character, and the market continues to reject lower lows with visible deceleration on momentum indicators. A reclaim of the $3,350 intraday pivot would shift short-term control back to buyers, setting up a retest of $3,550. Failing there would keep the wedge intact, preserving the probability of another deviation below $3,060 before any meaningful reversal. The daily structure remains bearish until Ethereum closes above the 100-day and 200-day averages, both now aligned as dynamic resistance exactly where supply is heaviest.

Macro And Sentiment Forces Clash As Community Anxiety Rises But Whales Accumulate And Long-Term Models Hold $3,750–$3,815 Targets

Sentiment is fractured. Retail forums show volatility-driven fear, especially after the nine-day decline that brought ETH-USD into its current compression. But whales are rotating capital rather than exiting: accumulation wallets continue growing even as ETFs bleed assets. Several mid-November forecasting models still point to a stabilization phase toward $3,400–$3,500, while long-term projections from institutional frameworks place the next consolidation band around $3,750–$3,815. These levels remain unreachable until Ethereum forces a close back above $3,595, which is the threshold that confirms momentum and breaks the supply clusters that have capped the past four rallies. The market has also started pulling liquidity up toward the same zones, increasing the likelihood that any breakout accelerates sharply.

ETH-USD Double-Bottom Attempts Form As Price Holds $3,060 With Neckline at $3,600 Creating a Critical Trigger Point

The daily chart now carries a potential double-bottom structure at $3,060, with a neckline formed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $3,600. This setup only activates if Ethereum prints a clean daily close above the neckline. Until then the market trades below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, in alignment with a pending death cross, a historically bearish configuration. But double-bottoms forming at a 50% retracement with shrinking exchange supply and heavy overhead liquidity often produce violent upside breaks once the neckline gives way. Failure to protect $3,060 would negate the pattern entirely, exposing the deeper demand zones between $2,850 and $2,600, where liquidity thins and volatility expands.

Ethereum’s Near-Term Direction Hinges Entirely On Breaking $3,595 Or Losing $3,060 As Traders Navigate A Multi-Trigger Market

The entire structure condenses around two levels: $3,595–$3,600 overhead and $3,060 below. Reclaiming the upper band unlocks a surge into $3,800–$3,900, the largest liquidity cluster on the map. Losing the lower band opens the door to the $2,600–$2,850 retracement pocket. Each scenario carries strong momentum potential because Ethereum’s supply, leverage, ETF flows, open interest, and on-chain positioning have all reached extreme compression.

Decision based on data: ETH is a short-term HOLD and medium-term BULLISH if $3,600 breaks, BEARISH if $3,060 fails.

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