Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Climbs to $3,859, $954M Liquidations Clear Leverage, Analysts Eye $4,272

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Rebounds to $3,859 as $954M Liquidations Clean Leverage and Analysts Target $4,200 in November Recovery

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is stabilizing around $3,859, climbing 1.8% after a volatile week dominated by liquidations, Fed commentary, and risk sentiment swings. The cryptocurrency rebounded from an intraday low of $3,687 following nearly $954 million in forced liquidations, marking one of the largest leverage resets since mid-October. The market flushed out overexposed longs after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that another December rate cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” a remark that rippled through risk assets. ETH’s ability to recover above $3,800 underscores sustained spot demand, even as traders digest macro uncertainty from Trump’s new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, which reignited inflation concerns and reduced rate-cut odds to 63% from 91% last week.

Macro Sentiment: Fed Uncertainty Meets Trump Tariff Shock

Ethereum’s market structure has been whipsawed by a confluence of monetary and geopolitical forces. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 25 bps to a 3.75%–4.00% range offered initial relief, but Powell’s warning about policy restraint curbed enthusiasm. The U.S.–China tariff escalation, reinstating up to 100% duties on key imports, injected fresh volatility across risk assets, dragging ETH down to $3,700 before buyers stepped in. This macro combination tightened financial conditions just as Ethereum ETF flows turned negative — with $260 million in net outflows over 10 of the past 11 sessions — amplifying short-term downside pressure. Yet history shows that aggressive short positioning often precedes recoveries: the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 32, near levels that historically coincide with accumulation phases.

Technical Setup: $3,700 Holds as a Key Support in Descending Channel

On the daily chart, Ethereum (ETH) remains confined within a descending parallel channel that started after the failed breakout above $4,200. Rejections at this resistance level have defined the short-term downtrend, but the 200-day EMA near $3,680 continues to act as a crucial defense line. Each of the past four bounces from the $3,700 support zone has triggered a short-term rally, showing that large buyers continue to defend that level. The RSI reading near 42 indicates waning bullish strength but no oversold exhaustion, leaving room for consolidation between $3,700 and $3,900 before any decisive move. If ETH closes above $3,950, a retest of $4,000–$4,200 becomes likely; however, a daily close below $3,700 could expose $3,400, where horizontal and trendline support intersect.

Derivative Reset: Open Interest Collapse Sparks Structural Clean-Up

The derivatives market saw a dramatic purge in the past 48 hours, with Open Interest plunging from $32 billion to $22.8 billion. This $9.2 billion contraction signals mass deleveraging and forced liquidations that erased speculative excess. Analysts view this as a constructive shakeout — markets that shed leverage often set the stage for sustainable rallies. Notably, funding rates across major exchanges turned negative for the first time since mid-September, suggesting shorts now dominate and that a countertrend rebound is brewing. Historically, when ETH funding flips negative alongside price stabilization, bullish reversals follow within 7–10 days.

Leverage-based selling has obscured true demand dynamics, with traders reacting to one another’s liquidations rather than spot buying. But the structural data shows that leverage-driven instability is easing — a critical condition for ETH to resume a fundamental-led uptrend toward the $4,200–$4,300 zone.

Network Strength: On-Chain Activity Hits Record Levels

While price consolidation dominates headlines, Ethereum’s underlying network continues to strengthen. According to CryptoOnChain data, Ethereum’s altcoin activity — encompassing DeFi, staking, and smart contract transactions — reached a historic all-time high this week. Daily active addresses climbed above 1.65 million, and total gas fees spiked 14% week-over-week, indicating renewed on-chain engagement. Developer activity surged, with GitHub commits increasing 11% month-over-month, underscoring that fundamentals are diverging from price. These metrics highlight that Ethereum’s core ecosystem remains robust, even amid macro turbulence. The network’s resilience contrasts sharply with sentiment-driven price swings and supports a medium-term bullish bias.

Trader Psychology: Panic and Greed Still Dictate Short-Term Volatility

Ethereum’s trading rhythm has mirrored sentiment extremes tied to funding rate cycles. When funding turns deeply negative, ETH bottoms near $3,700–$3,800; when it turns positive and speculative longs flood in, the token peaks near $4,200–$4,500. This reflexive behavior — a cycle of fear-driven dumps and greed-fueled rebounds — continues to dominate intraday structure. Analysts from Santiment and CEX.IO emphasize that “traders are reacting to each other’s leverage, not genuine demand,” creating artificial volatility layers. For the next leg up, spot accumulation rather than leveraged positioning must drive momentum.

On prediction markets such as Myriad, investors assign a 61% probability that ETH’s next move targets $4,500, versus a 39% probability of revisiting $3,100, reflecting cautious optimism amid short-term fatigue.