Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Holds $4,620 After Fed Cut as $5,430 Target Emerges

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Price Analysis: Can $4,600 Hold as $7,500 Targets Emerge?

Ethereum Consolidates Around $4,600 With Key Resistance Overhead

Ethereum is trading at $4,620, up more than 3% on the day and nearly 5% over the past week, holding firm after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25-basis point rate cut. Despite the bullish undertone across crypto, ETH remains trapped in a wide range, with $4,000 as strong support and $4,900 as major resistance. The August attempt to push above the multi-year resistance at $4,790 briefly carried ETH to $4,953, but that breakout attempt was rejected as volumes fell below the 20-day average, signaling weaker momentum.

On-Chain Data Signals Reduced Selling Pressure

Santiment data shows a steep decline in ETH being spent from wallets. On September 17, more than 257,000 ETH moved, but by September 18 that figure collapsed to just 42,700 ETH, an 83.5% drop — the lowest in six months. This sharp contraction in supply pressure suggests that holders are sitting tight, reducing near-term selling pressure. Supporting this, exchange net position change shows outflows of 159,000 ETH since September 14, pointing to accumulation rather than distribution.

Institutional Inflows Reignite the Bullish Case

Ethereum ETFs and funds are driving a fresh wave of institutional demand. BlackRock’s ETHA fund recorded inflows of 80,768 ETH on September 15, and combined weekly flows topped $638 million, led by Fidelity and other asset managers. Since June, treasuries and ETFs have accumulated nearly 3.8% of circulating ETH, solidifying Ethereum as a strategic allocation. This wave of buying has helped keep ETH resilient, even as whales unloaded over 90,000 ETH in the past 48 hours.

Technical Structure Points to $5,430 and Beyond

Chart patterns show a cup-and-handle formation forming just under resistance at $4,765. A breakout and daily close above this level projects a target of $5,430, which would mark a new yearly high. Indicators confirm the bullish bias: the RSI sits at 57, offering room to climb, while the Chaikin Money Flow has surged from -0.18 on September 15 to just below zero, indicating money is flowing back into ETH markets. Key downside levels are $4,334 and $4,213; a breakdown below $4,000 would invalidate the bullish setup.

Long-Term Cycle Analysis Sees $15,000–$20,000 Potential

Historical cycle analysis places ETH within a rising channel that has captured every cycle since 2015. Peaks in 2017 and 2021 aligned with the channel’s upper boundary, while troughs formed near the lower edge. ETH recently rebounded from that lower boundary, re-entering the central channel. If this pattern holds, ETH could target the $15,000–$20,000 range before 2026, in line with past cycle symmetry.

Institutional Price Targets Diverge Sharply

Wall Street’s view on ETH remains split. Citigroup projects $4,300 by year-end, citing shifting activity to Layer-2 networks. Standard Chartered, by contrast, lifted its target to $7,500, driven by enterprise adoption, stablecoin demand, and tokenization growth on Ethereum. The divergence highlights the uncertainty in macro conditions: rate cuts are supportive, but inflation and regulatory risks remain live variables.

ETH Supply on Exchanges at Record Lows

CryptoQuant reports that the Exchange Supply Ratio has dropped from 0.30 in 2020 to just 0.14 in 2025, the lowest in history. In previous cycles, exchange ratios at much higher levels corresponded to market tops. The present cycle shows the opposite: fewer coins available for sale, greater long-term holding behavior, and a setup that could amplify any demand shock into rapid price expansion.

Ethereum vs Altcoin Rotation

While ETH consolidates, some capital is rotating into high-risk meme coins and Layer-2 projects. Remittix, for example, has raised $26 million with BitMart already confirming its first listing. Meanwhile, meme-driven projects like Maxi Doge have attracted $2.3 million in presale inflows. Despite these diversions, ETH remains the institutional cornerstone. With $32.4 billion in daily trading volume and nearly 20% of DeFi TVL locked on its chain, Ethereum’s dominance ensures it remains the benchmark for capital inflows.

The Road Ahead for ETH-USD

Ethereum stands at a pivotal level. Support at $4,485–$4,500 remains intact, but a breakout above $4,765 could trigger a surge toward $5,430, and a further extension toward $5,750. Long-term cycle analysis argues for even higher levels, while institutional accumulation adds conviction. Risks remain from unstaking queues — 2.6 million ETH worth $12 billion are waiting to unlock — which could trigger localized selling. Yet with exchange reserves at record lows and ETF inflows accelerating, structural demand appears more than capable of absorbing supply.

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