Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Near $2,950: Can ETF Selling & 3% Whale Still Drive ETH To $3,450?

Ethereum Price At ~$2,950: Compressed Structure, Forced Selling And Silent Accumulation

ETH-USD Trades Below $3,000 With Short-Term Momentum Damaged

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades around $2,900–$2,960 after rejection from $3,400–$3,450 and multiple failures above $3,100. On the daily chart ETH-USD sits below all key EMAs: the 20-day EMA near $3,087, the 50-day EMA around $3,260 and the 100–200-day cluster above $3,430, a classic corrective setup where every bounce into $3,000–$3,100 meets supply. On the 4-hour chart, ETH-USD is pinned under a tight EMA block with the 20 EMA at $3,099.7, 50 EMA at $3,095.0 and 100 EMA at $3,098.6, acting as a single resistance lid. Bollinger Bands have expanded after a volatility squeeze and price leans toward the lower band near $2,920.9, confirming pressure is downward while volatility rises.

Rising Channel Support And Horizontal Floors: $2,868, $2,734, $2,620

Structurally ETH-USD still trades inside a rising 4-hour channel but now hugs the lower half. First defense is the channel base and recent swing support around $2,868.0; losing that opens the prior breakdown shelf and demand zone near $2,734.6. Below there, the deeper macro floor sits around $2,620, aligning with earlier consolidation. Intraday, the $2,935–$2,900 pocket is short-term support; a clean break below $2,900 and $2,880 exposes $2,875–$2,820 and then $2,620. On the long horizon, the 200-week EMA around $2,716 is the structural line in the sand; a sustained loss of that level would shift ETH-USD from corrective into a clearly bearish phase.

Upside Map For ETH-USD: $3,000, $3,135, $3,275, $3,450, $3,800 And $4,500

On the upside ETH-USD must first reclaim $3,000 on a daily close. Above that, immediate resistance sits in the $3,045–$3,095 band where short-term EMAs cap every bounce. The 0.618 retracement near $3,135 is the next critical pivot; repeated failures there have reinforced seller control. A decisive break and hold above $3,135 opens the $3,275–$3,300 range and then the supply block at $3,400–$3,450, which coincides with recent rejection highs. Only if ETH-USD can overcome the legacy wall at $3,700–$3,800, where large on-chain clusters sit, does a technical path toward the $4,500 region become realistic; until that band is absorbed, any $4,500 scenario remains aspirational, not structural.

Derivatives Pressure On ETH-USD: $582M Total Liquidations And $200M Long Flush

The latest leg lower in ETH-USD was driven by leverage, not spot capitulation. Across crypto, liquidations totaled about $582M with roughly 84% from longs; ETH-USD alone saw around $200M in long liquidations as price broke down from $3,150–$3,180 toward $2,900. When ETH traded near $2,960, futures open interest hovered around $3.9B, down from prior peaks that aligned with local tops, showing traders cutting exposure rather than building fresh short books. Derivatives volume jumped nearly 60% while open interest fell about 5%, a classic deleveraging pattern. Long–short ratios still lean long on major venues, especially among top traders, which previously left the market exposed; that imbalance explains the sharp but orderly cascade once $3,150–$3,180 failed.

Spot And ETF Flows In ETH-USD: $224.8M ETF Outflows Versus $76M Exchange Outflows

Flows around ETH-USD are split between institutional vehicles and direct spot behavior. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw about $224.8M in daily outflows, reversing earlier optimism and signaling waning institutional appetite while ETH trades below $3,000; ETF AUM is still around $18.2B but the day’s print is clearly negative for near-term sentiment. In contrast, centralized exchanges show persistent net spot outflows, with the latest session recording roughly $76M in net withdrawals and most days showing red bars, which typically implies reduced immediate sell supply as coins leave exchanges. Short-lived inflow spikes during bounces reveal opportunistic profit-taking whenever ETH-USD pushes higher, helping cap rallies into resistance. On-chain, network fees dropped about 45% month-on-month to $15.1M and active addresses fell around 14% week-on-week, while long-term holders distributed roughly 847,000 ETH over 30 days, the largest reduction since early 2021, adding extra supply despite ETF and corporate demand.

Momentum, Volatility And EMAs: Why ETH-USD Still Screens Weak

Momentum tools confirm the fragile posture of ETH-USD. On the daily chart, RSI lingers in the low 40s, signaling weak momentum but not yet washout levels, with no meaningful bullish divergence to indicate exhausted sellers. On lower timeframes, the breakdown from the $3,150–$3,180 zone flipped Supertrend firmly bearish and dragged ETH toward $2,900, while Parabolic SAR dots remain above price, keeping every bounce categorized as corrective. Bollinger Band expansion as ETH-USD leans toward the lower band near $2,920.9 shows volatility rising while price bleeds lower, a combination that often precedes either a final capitulation spike or a choppy, two-way range. Until ETH can close back above the 20-day EMA near $3,087 and hold it as support, any move above $3,000 remains vulnerable to rejection.

Institutional And Corporate Positioning Around ETH-USD: ETF Selling Versus BitMine’s 3% Supply Grab

Institutional posture around ETH-USD is mixed. On one side ETFs are pushing out roughly $224.8M in a day; on the other side specific corporates are aggressively accumulating. BitMine Immersion Technologies now holds about 3,967,210 ETH, referencing an internal pricing mark near $3,074 per coin, representing over 3% of total Ethereum supply and moving toward a stated 5% target. In the last week BitMine added 102,259 ETH and is planning to launch its MAVAN validator network in 2026, with internal estimates of up to $400M in annual staking revenue. That behavior effectively turns BitMine into a high-beta ETH-USD treasury wrapper listed on public markets. At the same time, BitMine’s stock has sold off hard, trading like a levered ETH proxy with wide 52-week ranges and double-digit daily swings, highlighting the execution and market-risk premium investors attach to any balance sheet that concentrates almost entirely into Ethereum.

Macro And Correlation: BTC-USD, Rates And Crypto Risk Sentiment

Macro conditions and correlation structures still weigh on ETH-USD. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) recently traded back toward the mid-$80,000s and below $90,000 during risk-off windows, and ETH continues to behave as a high-beta follower, amplifying BTC’s moves. Correlation with high-growth tech and broad risk assets keeps ETH-USD exposed to rate expectations and liquidity sentiment; when macro uncertainty around global rates rises, leverage compresses first in BTC, then spills into ETH and the rest of the complex. The recent $582M liquidation event, with $200M in forced ETH long unwinds, fits that pattern exactly. As long as rates and broader risk appetite remain unsettled, ETH will struggle to build and sustain a strong leg above $3,200–$3,260.

Fundamental Engine Versus Price: Network Strength, L2 Expansion And The $3,700–$3,800 Wall

Underneath the price action, the fundamental engine of ETH-USD remains strong. Around the time ETH traded near $3,600, key usage metrics such as daily wallet interactions, smart-contract calls and Layer-2 activity were near or at highs, and Ethereum kept its leadership in DeFi and infrastructure. Institutional ETF interest has not vanished, and corporate treasuries like BitMine’s are openly treating ETH as a core strategic asset. The problem is the hard resistance band near $3,700–$3,800, where on-chain data shows dense clusters of holdings acting as a supply wall; each attempt into that zone has been sold. Until ETH-USD can absorb that inventory and hold above it, the market will keep fading rallies and treating this as a range-bound asset rather than a confirmed breakout toward $4,500.

ETH-USD Stance: Hold Bias, Bearish Short-Term, Selective Accumulation Only Near $2,700–$2,620

Combining tape, flows and structure, ETH-USD sits just under $3,000 with short-term momentum damaged, derivatives cleaned out of late longs, and spot–ETF flows sending mixed signals. Price remains below every major EMA band, ETFs have pushed out roughly $224.8M in a day, long-term holders have sold about 847,000 ETH in a month, and liquidations have wiped around $200M of ETH longs out of a $582M complex-wide flush. Offsetting that, exchange outflows of $50–$76M per day, BitMine’s near-4M ETH stash and Ethereum’s ongoing dominance in DeFi and L2s argue against a simple collapse narrative. At current levels around $2,950 the rational stance on ETH-USD is Hold, with a bearish short-term bias and a plan to accumulate only closer to the 200-week EMA near $2,716 and the macro support band around $2,620, while demanding a clear reclaim of $3,135 and then $3,260 before treating any move toward $3,700–$4,500 as credible upside rather than hope.

That's TradingNEWS