Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Tests $2,900 Support With $3,300 Resistance Back in Play

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Weekly Price Forecast: $2,900 Support Under Pressure, $3,300–$3,600 Capped

Macro Context, ETF Outflows And Risk Sentiment

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading in a corrective range after failing to hold above the mid-$3,000s. Price is roughly 12% lower this week, driven by de-risking across crypto and traditional markets. The current working range is $2,700–$3,500, with any move sustained below $2,880–$2,900 shifting focus to $2,627–$2,700, while the upside remains constrained by the $3,300–$3,600 resistance band.

ETF Outflows, Retail Distribution And Whale Positioning

US spot ETH ETFs printed three straight sessions of outflows this week, totaling around $569.4–$611.1 million. That is direct supply on the market and is aligned with on-chain behavior: wallets in the 100–1,000 ETH and 1,000–10,000 ETH brackets have unloaded roughly 520,000 ETH since Sunday. Whales holding 10,000–100,000 ETH are not aggressively buying this dip; their net flow is largely neutral. Result: ETF selling plus retail distribution with no strong whale absorption – a short-term bearish flow profile.

Derivatives Structure, Open Interest And Coinbase Premium Signal

Futures open interest increased by about 520,000 ETH to 12.99 million ETH, showing leverage rising into the selloff. Funding rates have been erratic rather than consistently positive, so positioning is mixed, not one-sided long. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index has moved decisively negative – ETH on Coinbase trades at a discount versus Binance – which signals weaker US/institutional spot demand. That configuration typically matches distribution phases or cautious positioning from US entities rather than aggressive bottom-fishing.

Network Activity, Fusaka Upgrade And Staking Dynamics

Network fundamentals do not confirm a collapse story. Active addresses and transaction counts remain elevated, sustaining a strong up-trend since the Fusaka upgrade, even as price corrects. Historically, post-upgrade activity spikes tend to cool over time, but right now usage is still robust. On the consensus side, the validator entry queue has climbed to around 3.13 million ETH, while the total staked volume has reached about 36.3 million ETH, an all-time high. That locks a large portion of supply and structurally tightens float, even if price action in the short term is dominated by ETF and macro flows.

Lido Staked ETH (STETHUSD) As A Proxy For ETH-USD Weakness

Lido’s STETHUSD trades essentially as liquid staked ETH and is holding close to spot ETH pricing, with quotes around $2,952–$2,956. No material de-peg risk is visible; STETH mirrors ETH’s weakness but does not show stress in the liquid staking plumbing. Year-to-date performance shows about -1.8%, while the one-year view shows roughly -11.7%, consistent with ETH’s corrective structure after failing to sustain highs above the mid-$3,000s.

STETHUSD Technical Cluster: Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands And ADX

Technically, STETHUSD trades just below its 50-day moving average at $3,080.47, about 4.1% under that intermediate resistance, signaling recent downside pressure but no capitulation. Bollinger Bands are set with the lower band at $2,769.62, middle band at $3,007.66, and upper band at $3,245.70, with price sitting slightly below the middle band. RSI stands near 49.18 – neutral – while MACD shows a positive histogram (+29.64) against a still-negative signal line (-26.70), indicating early bullish momentum attempting to form inside a broader corrective regime. ADX around 25.65 confirms a meaningful trend is in place; the direction of the break from this consolidation will matter more than micro noise.

Daily And 4H ETH Structure: From $3,500 Rejection Back Toward $2,700–$2,900

On the daily chart, ETH has been repeatedly rejected in the $3,400–$3,500 area, where the declining 100-day moving average aligns with a major supply block. The 200-day moving average sits higher near $3,800 and is flattening, underlining that the primary trend is corrective rather than impulsively bullish. The selloff back below $3,100–$3,000 confirmed the failure and shifted focus directly to the $2,880 support zone.
On the 4-hour chart, ETH broke down from a rising channel that carried price from around $2,800 to just under $3,400. After losing the channel’s lower boundary and the local $3,000–$3,100 support, structure turned into a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Short-term, $3,000–$3,100 is now the tactical pivot: reclaiming it would signal a failed breakdown, while persistent rejection there keeps downside pressure on $2,900, then $2,700–$2,600.

Key Weekly Support: $2,880, $2,700 And The 200-Week EMA Around $2,627

Weekly structure is defined by three key levels. First, the $2,880 zone, already tested this week, is the immediate support created after rejection from the 20-week EMA. If ETH closes the week decisively below that level, the market will treat it as broken support. Below that, the $2,700 area is the primary higher-timeframe demand cluster. Slightly under it, near $2,627, sits the 200-week EMA, a critical long-term trend line. A clean break and close below $2,700–$2,627 opens a deeper mean-reversion path toward the ~$2,200 band referenced in the technical projections.

Upside Barriers: $3,000–$3,100, $3,300, $3,470 And $3,600

On the upside, ETH must first regain and hold the previously lost $3,000–$3,100 area. That zone is both a breakdown point and now a congestion band. Above it, $3,300 is the next major resistance that recently rejected price. The next supply zone sits near $3,600, where past rallies stalled. For a genuine trend reversal, ETH would need to break and close above $3,470 – the level flagged as necessary to re-establish an uptrend – and then attack the $3,600–$3,800 block where the 200-day MA is located. Until those are reclaimed, every bounce into the mid-$3,000s remains a rally inside a corrective range, not a confirmed new leg higher.

Momentum Gauges: RSI, Stochastics And Directional Bias

Momentum indicators back the corrective and bearish tilt. On the weekly time frame, RSI is below its neutral mid-line, signaling that sellers retain control even after a multi-week decline. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, indicating that the downside move is advanced but not necessarily finished. On shorter time frames, RSI has bounced modestly from oversold conditions after the break of $3,000–$3,100, but that bounce is weak and consistent with relief rallies inside a broader downtrend rather than a clean reversal signal.

Wyckoff LPS Setup Versus Bearish Continuation Below $2,700

A Wyckoff interpretation marks the $2,900 region as a potential Last Point of Support (LPS) within a multi-year accumulation structure that began after the 2022–2024 range. Prior cycle elements such as the Selling Climax (SC), Automatic Rally (AR), and Secondary Tests (ST) have already played out, and an earlier LPS formed near the early-2025 base. Now, ETH is retesting the current LPS zone below $3,000. If $2,900–$2,700 holds and price reclaims the upper range, the next phase would be a Wyckoff “Sign of Strength” (SOS), targeting the $4,000–$5,000 region over time. If $2,700 fails decisively, that entire accumulation interpretation collapses and the structure resolves as a straightforward bearish continuation toward the low-$2,000s.

STETHUSD Forecast Targets: Monthly, Quarterly And Yearly Levels

Model-based projections for STETHUSD frame expectations around ETH’s proxy in liquid staking: a 1-month target around $2,908.06, implying roughly -1.5% from current levels and signaling continued consolidation; a 3-month target near $3,793.58, about +28.5% above current pricing, assuming improving sentiment, institutional flows into liquid staking, and ETH strength; and a 12-month target close to $2,977.18, only about +0.8% up, signaling a cautious long-term stance given macro risks and sector competition. For ETH-USD, these numbers translate into a base case of continued range trading with the potential for a strong medium-term rally if flows and macro conditions turn.

Liquid Staking Fundamentals, Lido Dominance And Competitive Pressure

Lido remains the dominant liquid staking player, with more than $30 billion in total value locked and a STETHUSD market cap above $26 billion. That dominance keeps staked ETH deeply integrated across DeFi and centralized venues, and it means STETH price action is effectively a high-volume proxy for ETH’s staking premium. At the same time, alternatives like Rocket Pool and centralized staking from major exchanges introduce competition around fees, liquidity, and regulatory risk. Any shift in staking regulation or tax treatment in key jurisdictions would impact both ETH-USD and STETHUSD, particularly in 2026 when policy debates around staking yields are intensifying.

Sentiment, Volume And Consolidation Dynamics Around $2,900

Trading volume in STETH and ETH spot is subdued relative to 30-day averages. For STETH, volume of ~13.74 million is roughly 51.85% of the 30-day average (26.67 million), a typical signature of consolidation rather than panic. Reduced activity during a corrective phase usually means large players are waiting for clearer levels: either a flush below $2,700 to buy size or a confirmed reclaim of $3,100–$3,300 to chase upside. Until one of those triggers occurs, the market can remain range-bound with fast but contained swings between support and resistance.

Bearish Breakdown Case: Close Below $2,700–$2,627

In the downside scenario, ETH fails to hold $2,880, slices through $2,700, and prints a weekly close below the 200-week EMA around $2,627. That would mark a decisive break of both structural support and long-term trend, validating projections toward the ~$2,200 lower band. ETF outflows persisting, continued retail distribution, and a still-negative Coinbase premium would support that move. Technically, RSI would likely push deeper into oversold territory with Stochastics pinned low, and the narrative would shift firmly to a deeper mean-reversion phase rather than consolidation.

Sideways Consolidation Case: $2,700–$3,300 Range

In the neutral scenario, ETH grinds sideways between $2,700 and $3,300. ETF flows stabilize, retail selling slows, and whales stay selective rather than aggressive. STETHUSD trades between its lower Bollinger band at $2,769.62 and upper band at $3,245.70, with RSI stuck near 50 and ADX gradually fading as the trend weakens. In that setup, every dip toward $2,700–$2,800 attracts tactical buyers, while rallies into $3,300–$3,600 face profit-taking and renewed ETF selling. It is a trader’s market, not a clean trend market.

Bullish Recovery Case: Reclaiming $3,300–$3,600

In the bullish case, outflows from ETH ETFs slow or flip to mild inflows, whales resume accumulation, and the Coinbase premium recovers toward neutral or positive territory. ETH holds $2,880–$2,700, then reclaims $3,000–$3,100, turning that band back into support. A break and daily/weekly close above $3,300 opens up the $3,600 zone, and a move through $3,470 starts to confirm a new up-leg. In parallel, STETHUSD breaks above the mid-band and attacks $3,245.70, then moves toward the $3,793.58 quarterly target. Under that path, the Wyckoff LPS scenario remains valid and the market can start pricing a medium-term drive toward $4,000–$5,000.

Buy, Sell Or Hold Around $2,900 – Structured View

With ETH-USD hovering around $2,900–$3,000, ETF outflows heavy, retail having already dumped ~520,000 ETH, whales neutral, and key support sitting just below, the structure is tactically bearish but nearing an inflection zone. Technically, the decisive line is $2,700–$2,627; fundamentally, the presence of 36.3 million ETH staked and strong network activity argues against a structural collapse. The directional verdict depends on the coming reaction at $2,880–$2,700:
– A clean weekly hold and reclaim of $3,000–$3,100 keeps a range-to-recovery path open.
– A firm breakdown below $2,700–$2,627 shifts ETH into a deeper correction toward the low-$2,000s before any credible attempt at a new up-cycle.

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