Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Breaks $3,000 as Fusaka Upgrade and Institutional Buying Ignite Bullish Breakout

Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Breaks Above $3,000 as Fusaka Upgrade Ignites Scalability Rally

Ethereum (ETH-USD) surged to $3,082.69, up 2.83%, marking its strongest intraday move since mid-November as the Fusaka upgrade went live. The upgrade, which integrates PeerDAS and expands blob capacity, represents Ethereum’s most critical throughput leap since EIP-4844, setting the foundation for cheaper rollup fees and a broader scaling phase heading into 2026. With Ethereum trading above $3,080, the market’s technical structure shows a significant shift — but bulls still face dense resistance across its 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving averages.

The Fusaka Upgrade: Ethereum’s New Scalability Engine

The Fusaka hard fork, activated on December 3, introduces PeerDAS—a peer-to-peer data availability sampling system that allows validators to verify blob data without downloading full payloads. This effectively doubles block gas capacity and lays groundwork for two blob-parameter expansions scheduled for December and January, designed to lower rollup costs by 30–80%. These changes elevate Ethereum’s capacity to support high-throughput Layer-2 solutions like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism, potentially pushing the network toward 100,000 transactions per second (TPS) in its next development phase.

Technical Landscape: Key Resistance Between $3,360 and $3,560

Technically, ETH-USD has broken a descending trendline that capped rebounds since October. The token now trades inside a symmetrical triangle, consolidating above the $3,000 psychological level. Resistance is dense between $3,363 and $3,566, where the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs converge. The Supertrend indicator remains bearish at $3,382, suggesting short-term rallies may face automated sell pressure unless ETH can achieve a decisive breakout above the EMA cluster. Immediate support stands at $2,850, which has held through multiple tests across November’s volatility cycles.

Liquidity Sweep and Structural Reset

Prior to this rally, Ethereum executed a sharp liquidity sweep—a classic market move designed to shake weak hands and collect buy-side liquidity. The aggressive drop flushed leveraged long positions, only for large-cap buyers to step in near $2,850, triggering a powerful reversal. The structure now shows higher lows forming on lower timeframes, with momentum confirming the market’s transition from accumulation to breakout mode. This structural shift implies that Ethereum’s correction phase is potentially complete, with the Fusaka upgrade serving as the macro catalyst for trend rotation.

Derivatives Market Reawakens

The derivatives market signals renewed participation. Open interest in ETH futures jumped 7.7% following the upgrade, with rising taker buy volume—reaching 148.7 million, according to Trireme Trading. This metric, indicating that buyers are lifting the ask rather than waiting for dips, confirms aggressive spot accumulation. Simultaneously, CryptoQuant data shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from oversold territory while the MACD histogram flattens, a sign that bearish momentum has been exhausted. The renewed leverage participation mirrors growing trader conviction that the next leg higher could sustain.

Institutional Accumulation Signals Confidence

Institutional flows add further weight to the bullish structure. BlackRock transferred 44,000 ETH (≈$134 million) into Coinbase, raising its total holdings to 3.68 million ETH. This increase signals that traditional financial institutions are reinforcing long exposure ahead of potential Ethereum ETF catalysts and post-upgrade network efficiency. Such movements follow several weeks of institutional inactivity, making the renewed inflows particularly significant for sentiment and liquidity depth. Historically, spikes in ETH institutional inflows precede multi-week rallies, aligning with the current technical breakout above the $3,000 level.

Short-Term Indicators Point to Strength, But Confirmation Required

Despite this bullish backdrop, Ethereum’s technical structure still demands confirmation above the EMA cluster to confirm a sustainable uptrend. Failure to hold $3,050 during consolidation risks a short-term pullback toward $2,950, particularly if funding rates rise too quickly in derivatives markets. However, sustained closes above $3,100 with volume would invalidate the bearish Supertrend and reestablish $3,566 as the next resistance target. Breaking that zone could trigger momentum toward $3,800–$4,000, levels consistent with historical Fibonacci extensions following similar structure reversals.

Market Context: Ethereum Leads as Bitcoin Stabilizes Above $92K

While Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades near $92,392 (+1.6%), Ethereum’s stronger 24-hour move underscores a rotation back into high-beta assets. The ETH/BTC ratio, which fell sharply through November, is stabilizing, suggesting capital rotation toward Ethereum-led trades. With Solana (SOL) at $141.05 (+2.15%) and BNB (BNB) at $897.57 (+2.87%), Ethereum maintains dominance within the Layer-1 ecosystem as the Fusaka fork reasserts its scaling leadership.

Broader On-Chain and Macro Signals

On-chain indicators reflect network health improving. Daily active addresses rose 6.3% week-over-week, while transaction volume surpassed $28.8 billion in 24 hours, supported by renewed DeFi and NFT activity. Layer-2 rollups reported aggregate throughput above 60 TPS, a record high since April. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s market capitalization reached $372 billion, narrowing the valuation gap against Bitcoin. These metrics suggest that Fusaka’s optimization of blob capacity and data sampling could further reinforce Ethereum’s position as the dominant settlement layer for decentralized finance in 2026.