EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Near 1.1680: Euro Buckles Under Strong US Data and NFP Risk

EUR/USD Below 1.1700: Dollar Strength and Weak Euro Data Keep Pressure on the Pair

Short-Term EUR/USD Structure: Price, RSI and Momentum Signal a Weak Grind Lower

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1680–1.1690 after four straight losing days, stuck under the 1.1700 handle with momentum clearly fading. On the daily chart, the 14-day RSI sits near 42.6, below the 50 midline, so momentum is neutral-to-bearish, not a healthy pause. As long as RSI stays sub-50, recovery attempts are more likely to be sold than extended trends higher. Price action confirms that view: every bounce toward 1.1700 has been capped quickly, and the market is rotating lower in a controlled way, not spiking in panic.

Moving Averages and Channel Geometry: Why 1.1710–1.1730 Is a Sell Zone

The structure around the moving averages is clearly negative for EUR/USD. Spot trades below the 9-day EMA at 1.1711 and just under the 50-day EMA around 1.1682. The short-term EMA has already turned down, while the 50-day line is flattening, exactly the pattern seen when an earlier rebound runs out of fuel. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is also trading under the 20-, 50- and 100-period MAs, with the 200-period MA near 1.1670 acting as the first real dynamic support. Price has been sliding inside a bearish channel that began after the late-December high near 1.1805–1.1808. Resistance now stacks above the market at 1.1711, then 1.1730–1.1743, and finally at 1.1808 and 1.1918, the highest level since June 2021. As long as EUR/USD stays below roughly 1.1710–1.1730, rallies are technically just corrections inside a broader down leg.

US Macro Side: Strong Services and Mixed Labor Data Back the USD

The dollar side of EUR/USD is supported by firmer US macro data. The ISM Services PMI for December jumped to 54.4, signaling a resilient services sector and fresh expansion, not stagnation. The employment component of that survey moved back into growth, reducing fears of an imminent labor-market rollover. ADP and JOLTs numbers show some cooling, but they are not weak enough to counter the services strength. With that mix, the Dollar Index has found support and investors are now focused on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release, which will either confirm the resilience narrative or crack it. Until NFP prints meaningfully below expectations, the macro tone favors the USD over the EUR.

Fed Policy Expectations: Gradual Cuts, Higher US Yields and EUR/USD Pressure

Monetary policy expectations reinforce that bias. The Federal Reserve’s cut in December did not open the door to an aggressive easing cycle. The committee remained split and Chair Powell emphasized patience and data-dependence. Markets are now pricing a slow, stepwise path of cuts rather than a rapid normalization. That keeps US yields elevated versus the euro area, and higher US yields are a straightforward headwind for EUR/USD. As long as the market believes the Fed will only trim rates gradually while the US economy absorbs tighter policy, rate differentials continue to lean toward the dollar.

Eurozone Fundamentals: Inflation at Target, German Weakness and a Soft Growth Story

On the Eurozone side, the data story is less supportive. Headline inflation slowed to 2.0 percent year-on-year in December, down from 2.6 percent, exactly matching the ECB’s target. That removes pressure on the ECB to stay hawkish and allows policymakers to turn more neutral. However, the growth pulse is weak. German retail sales fell 0.6 percent in November, a sharp miss for an economy that needed a rebound in consumer demand. Services activity has cooled as well, with the S&P services PMI revised down to 52.4, still above 50 but clearly losing momentum. The combination of softer growth indicators and inflation at target limits the euro’s appeal precisely when the US side is showing renewed strength.

Euro Performance Across Majors: Where EUR Holds Up and Where It Does Not

The currency heat map highlights that the euro is not collapsing across the board. Versus the New Zealand dollar, the euro is the strongest, reflecting risk-off preference for lower-beta assets and cross-specific dynamics. Against the US dollar, however, the picture is different. Day-to-day changes between EUR and USD are small, but the structural drift in EUR/USD is still down, driven by better US data and weaker Eurozone growth. That divergence explains why some EUR crosses can rise while the main pair struggles to reclaim 1.1700. The story for EUR/USD is a combination of moderate euro softness and steady dollar support.

Intraday Map for EUR/USD: Supports, Resistances and Key Technical Levels

Current price action for EUR/USD revolves around a cluster of technical levels. The pair is hovering near 1.1680, with an intraday low around 1.1673 printed during Asian trade. The 50-day EMA at 1.1682 and the 200-period MA on the 4-hour chart at roughly 1.1670 form a short-term support band. If the market closes decisively below this area, bears will aim for the next static supports at 1.1659 and then 1.1622. Below that, the monthly low at 1.1589 from December 1 becomes the major downside magnet. On the upside, first resistance sits at the 9-day EMA at 1.1711, followed by 1.1730–1.1743 near a descending trendline. Higher up, 1.1805–1.1808 and 1.1918 mark the larger structural barriers. The 4-hour RSI near 40 shows weak, persistent downside pressure with no oversold conditions, matching the slow, grinding pattern seen on price.

Macro Event Risk: NFP, Data Flow and How It Can Break the 1.1680 Range

Market positioning in EUR/USD is now dominated by upcoming data releases. Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims and ISM components have nudged the dollar higher, but the decisive trigger is Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. A strong NFP print and firm wage growth would reinforce the resilient-US narrative, likely pushing the pair below 1.1680–1.1670 and down toward 1.1659 and 1.1622. A clear downside surprise in NFP, especially if combined with softer wages, could weaken the dollar and allow EUR/USD to rebound above 1.1710, possibly squeezing into the 1.1730–1.1743 resistance zone. On the Eurozone side, sentiment indicators and producer-price data can adjust ECB expectations at the margin, but the main volatility driver in the near term remains US data.

Bias, Trade Stance and Verdict on EUR/USD Direction

Putting all elements together, the bias on EUR/USD remains bearish below 1.1710–1.1730. Technically, the pair is trading under the 9-day and 50-day EMAs, sliding inside a downward channel, with the daily RSI at 42.6 and the 4-hour RSI near 40. Fundamentally, US services at 54.4, resilient labor indicators and gradual-cut pricing support the dollar, while German retail sales at minus 0.6 percent, Eurozone inflation at 2.0 percent and slowing services activity weigh on the euro. As long as the pair stays capped below the 1.1710–1.1730 band, rallies are better treated as selling opportunities targeting 1.1659, then 1.1622 and potentially the 1.1589 low. Only a sustained break and daily close above roughly 1.1780–1.1808 would invalidate the current structure and open a path toward 1.1918. Until that happens, the data and the charts together argue that EUR/USD is a sell on strength, not a buy.

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