First Solar Stock (NYSE:FSLR) Eyes $375 Target as U.S. Policy Tailwinds Fuel Up to 60% Upside

First Solar (NYSE:FSLR) Navigates Policy Crosswinds And Surging Utility Demand

First Solar (NYSE:FSLR) is trading near $145, but the market appears to be undervaluing its long-term trajectory. The company sits at the intersection of U.S. energy policy, utility-scale project demand, and a rapid transformation of the solar manufacturing supply chain. Following the Biden administration’s reclassification of solar equipment under the OBBBA (Office of Budget and Build Back America) compliance umbrella, FSLR stands to benefit directly from bonus credits and local content multipliers—yet the market has yet to price in normalized earnings above $20–25 per share by FY2026.

Production Ramp And U.S. Capacity Expansion Signal Structural Advantage

FSLR has already committed to expanding its domestic nameplate capacity to 14 GW by 2026, including facilities in Ohio, Alabama, and Louisiana. This expansion coincides with the phase-down of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) bonus for solar inverters and tracking systems. However, First Solar's cadmium telluride thin-film modules are fully manufactured in the U.S., qualifying for elevated domestic content incentives that crystalline silicon competitors—largely importing from Southeast Asia—do not receive.

This differentiation will be increasingly important as trade enforcement tightens and IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) requirements accelerate. At current trajectory, FSLR may earn over $2.5B in net IRA-related incentives between 2024–2028.

Bookings Backlog Reinforces Long-Term Visibility

As of Q2 2025, First Solar holds a contracted backlog of 78 GW, with deliveries extending through 2030. The company added 14.2 GW of new bookings in the first half of 2025, including utility-scale offtake agreements in California, Texas, and Saudi Arabia. ASPs have remained resilient around $0.30–$0.34 per watt, and full delivery margin is trending toward 35% gross, reflecting stronger negotiation power due to the company’s unique domestic profile.

The strong backlog and committed pricing lock in revenue growth above 20% CAGR through FY2027. Operating income could exceed $2.9B by 2026, and normalized EPS—backed out of IRA incentives—should remain north of $18/share, with GAAP EPS topping $25/share depending on facility ramp timing and cost curve improvements.

Valuation Disconnect: P/E And EV/EBITDA Remain Compressed

Despite these structural tailwinds, FSLR trades at a forward P/E of ~6.8x normalized EPS and EV/EBITDA of ~5.3x, well below solar peers like ENPH (14x) and SEDG (10x). The valuation gap reflects investor skepticism about long-term solar module pricing, Chinese competition, and potential rollback of IRA provisions.

However, none of these risks materially impact First Solar’s U.S.-based moat. Even if average selling prices drop to $0.28/watt, FSLR's cost structure and government incentives preserve 20–30% gross margins. At $145, the market implies EPS below $10, which fails to account for actual booked pricing and the domestic subsidy regime.

Insider Activity And Institutional Positioning Show Confidence

Recent insider disclosures show no major selling. Meanwhile, institutional holders such as BlackRock and Vanguard increased their stakes in Q1 and Q2 2025. Notably, BlackRock added over 1.3 million shares following the firm’s long-term energy infrastructure ETF inclusion of FSLR. View real-time insider data here: FSLR Insider Transactions

Technicals Support Upside Momentum Toward $175–$195

Technically, FSLR recently broke above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the $140 horizontal resistance that had capped price action since February 2025. With RSI near 62 and weekly MACD crossing bullish, momentum favors a retest of $175. If macro conditions remain stable and earnings exceed $6.25 in Q3, breakout targets move to $195, with long-term price targets into 2026 stretching to $290–$375.

Verdict: First Solar (NYSE:FSLR) Is A Buy With 30–60% Upside

The combination of structural domestic advantages, booked demand visibility, and policy-driven margin expansion makes FSLR a rare asymmetric opportunity in the solar sector. With 2026 EPS estimates near $25/share, a 15x multiple implies $375/share, while even a conservative 10x target yields $250–$275. Risk remains tied to trade litigation, policy reversals, and technological shifts—but for now, FSLR is a Buy, and the market is underpricing a well-capitalized, subsidy-anchored solar leader with locked-in demand through 2030.

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