Gold Price Forecast - Steadies at $3,665 After Fed Cut, Eyes $4,000 Breakout

XAU/USD Maintains Rally as Spot Gold Hits $3,665 and Futures $3,702

Gold extended its gains on Friday with spot XAU/USD priced at $3,665.54 per ounce and futures in New York climbing to $3,702.30. The advance followed Wednesday’s 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, which triggered an intraday record of $3,706.90. Bullion is now securing its fifth straight weekly gain, up 0.3% for the week and nearly 40% year-to-date, consolidating a powerful rally that has redefined price levels across the metals complex.

Federal Reserve Cuts and Inflation Risks Shape Gold’s Trajectory

The Fed’s move to lower rates has reinforced gold’s bid, but warnings on persistent inflation temper expectations. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari highlighted that labor market fragility justified the cut and pointed toward two more reductions this year. Futures markets now price another quarter-point cut in October and potentially another in December, with early 2026 easing in play. Such expectations reduce real yields and amplify demand for bullion as a hedge against policy uncertainty and inflation stickiness.

Technical Map: $3,630 Holds as Support, $3,740–$3,800 Looms Above

Gold’s recent rejection at $3,700 prompted a pullback to $3,630 support, where buyers quickly reemerged. The Daily RSI cooled from extreme overbought levels, while the MACD signals a possible bearish cross, hinting at short-term correction risk. Still, the overall structure remains bullish with firm demand zones at $3,615–$3,630 and $3,580, with the deeper floor near $3,500. On the upside, a close above $3,710 would expose $3,740 and set the stage for $3,800, a level identified in measured-move projections from the ascending triangle formation.

Dollar Dynamics and U.S. Data Create Near-Term Headwinds

The U.S. dollar staged a rebound after strong jobless claims figures and a recovery in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, briefly weighing on gold and driving a $70 correction from the highs. However, the scope of the greenback’s recovery appears capped as markets nearly fully price further rate cuts. Every dip toward $3,630 has so far drawn renewed demand, confirming gold’s status as a preferred hedge in the current policy cycle.

Rotation Toward Silver and Platinum as Gold Price Soars

As gold edges higher, some investors diversify into alternatives. Silver surged 2.2% to $42.76 per ounce on Friday, outperforming bullion on a weekly basis with a 0.6% rise, while platinum attracted steady flows from cost-sensitive buyers. The rotation reflects affordability pressures, but institutional players and central banks remain firmly committed to gold allocations, keeping XAU/USD’s structural foundation strong.

Central Bank Demand and Mining Sector Moves Add Support

Emerging market central banks continue to expand bullion reserves, offsetting profit-taking from speculative traders. Corporate actions underscore supply-side dynamics: Newmont offloaded its $439 million Orla stake, Minera Alamos raised $98 million for acquisitions, and Perpetua’s Stibnite project won federal approval to meet 35% of U.S. antimony demand. These moves tighten long-term supply and strengthen gold’s role as both a financial and strategic asset.

Investor Sentiment Points Toward $4,000 by Year-End

RJO Futures strategist Bob Haberkorn argued that gold remains in a pause phase but the bullish structure is intact, projecting $4,000 per ounce before year-end. Analysts warn that consolidation near $3,500–$3,630 may be needed to digest froth after the vertical rally, yet each correction is increasingly seen as a buying opportunity. With gold already delivering a 40% annual gain in 2025, momentum favors further advances once short-term overbought signals are absorbed.

Verdict: XAU/USD Buy on Dips Toward $3,600 With $4,000 in Play

The blend of Fed policy easing, central bank demand, and mining sector realignments provides a robust backdrop for continued strength. Support at $3,630 remains pivotal, with buyers stepping in aggressively on each pullback. As long as XAU/USD holds above that threshold, the setup favors buying dips into $3,600–$3,630, with upside targets stretching toward $3,740, $3,800, and ultimately $4,000 into year-end.

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