Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) Tests $35.80 Floor – Is $38 the New Launchpad for a 20% Rally to $57?
Data-center revenues surging 90% to $4.2 billion clash with a static $2.5 billion AI target and AWS capex pullback, prompting one urgent question for traders: will MRVL clear $48 resistance to ignite a move toward $57? | That's TradingNEWs
Management’s FY26 AI Ambitions Under Scrutiny for NASDAQ:MRVL
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) stunned investors by revealing that, despite crushing its fiscal 2025 AI revenue goal of $1.5 billion—delivering closer to $2 billion through a $1 billion electro-optics franchise and roughly $900 million in custom ASICs—it would leave its fiscal 2026 AI target unchanged at $2.5 billion. With data center revenues now representing 75% of total sales and ballooning 90% year-over-year to $4.2 billion, market participants had been banking on a refreshed $3.5 billion-plus ambition for next year. Even management’s commitment to “very significantly exceed” $2.5 billion translates to a muted 25–30% upside, a gap that sent MRVL tumbling over 30% in the weeks following its Q4 earnings call. To track today’s price action, visit Marvell’s real-time chart.
Amazon’s Data Center Capex Pullback and Hyperscaler Dynamics
Amazon Web Services, Marvell’s largest hyperscaler client, has cautioned that third-party chip yields and midstream supply constraints are slowing its server rollouts. Reports that AWS may scale back capital expenditure in late 2025 and weigh multi-vendor ASIC strategies—potentially diluting Marvell’s share of flagship Trainium and Inferentia programs—cast a shadow over MRVL’s growth timeline. On the networking side, emerging players like Astera Labs have begun winning PCIe switch engagements within the same AI cluster deployments that once belonged exclusively to Marvell, threatening to erode margins and market share in what had been Marvell’s high-value electro-optical domain.
Intensifying Competition in AI Silicon and Networking
Across the aisle, Broadcom (AVGO) is widely believed to corner roughly 20% of the AI data center silicon market, chasing an annual $50 billion serviceable market opportunity. Marvell must not only fend off Broadcom’s scale and deep-pocketed R&D but also counter startups like Pensando (acquired by AMD) and Fungible that are carving niches in smart NICs and DPU architectures. Any missteps on Marvell’s 5 nm ASIC yields or late architectural pivots could result in lost design wins at the world’s biggest cloud providers, where flawless performance and rapid time-to-market are nonnegotiable.
Dissecting Marvell’s Financial Trajectory and Valuation
Assuming fiscal 2026 data center revenues of $5.8 billion to $6.2 billion (50–60% growth) and maintaining a 75% weight in overall revenues implies corporate sales of $7.8 billion to $8.4 billion—up 35–45% year-over-year. On an enterprise value-to-sales basis, MRVL trades at just 5.7× to 6.1× forward revenues, contrasting sharply with Broadcom’s lofty 13.2× multiple. Likewise, MRVL’s forward EV/EBITDA of 14.6× sits near its early-2023 trough and well beneath its 10-year average of 19.7×, while the forward PEG ratio is a staggering 70% below the semiconductor group median. Such valuation compression suggests that the market may have overshot on the downside.
Technical Landscape Points to Pivotal Levels
After breaching its late-2023 lows near $33, MRVL has squeezed higher but remains mired below its 50-week moving average around $45. A weekly close above the $48 resistance zone—where volume spiked in December and February—would validate a base breakout and invite renewed institutional interest. Conversely, failure to hold above $35 risks a retest of the March 2023 trough, which could usher in another round of stop-loss liquidations before any durable recovery sets in.
Positioning Recommendation for NASDAQ:MRVL—Buy
Given the stock’s current trough valuations, stretched technical sell-offs and the steep discount to peers, Marvell presents a compelling entry point for longs. Accumulation can begin once MRVL clears the $38 threshold—where support from late-2023 failed to break—using a protective stop just beneath $33 to limit downside should hyperscaler capex soften. Under our base case, a rebound to a conservative 7× EV/sales multiple on $8 billion of fiscal 2026 revenue implies roughly 20 percent upside, while a full bull outcome could lift the stock toward $65, nearly 40 percent above today’s levels. This setup earns a Buy recommendation for disciplined, patient investors.
