Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Near $4.25 After $4.59 Spike as LNG Flows and Winter Cold Collide

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Today: Henry Hub Near $4.25 After $4.59 Whipsaw

Holiday Session In NG=F: Violent Spike To $4.59, Close Around $4.24

Front-month natural gas (NG=F) into Christmas closed near $4.242 per MMBtu, after ripping as high as $4.593, the strongest level since December 11. That intraday move came on the back of an 11% jump the previous session, the biggest daily gain since late October, before sellers pushed the contract to finish in the lower third of the day’s range. The low print around $4.18 effectively kissed the 50-day moving average, turning it from prior resistance into a first serious support test. Reported futures volume of roughly 19,500 lots shows how thin holiday liquidity amplified every order: this was not a broad-based positioning shift, it was a small group of participants moving a market that was half-empty. For NG=F, that means you cannot read the raw candles without factoring in the calendar.

Technical Structure In NG=F: 50-Day Support Holds, 20-Day And Fib Zone Cap The Rally

The short-term structure in NG=F is now defined by a clash between newly tested support and layered resistance above. On the daily chart, price briefly broke above the 20-day moving average and then failed, leaving that average near $4.87 as a renewed ceiling. The intraday high at $4.59 sits right in a dense resistance band that technical work marks between roughly $4.65 and $4.69, an area that lines up with the 50% retracement of the prior downswing and a tight sideways cluster from November that repeatedly topped out near $4.69–$4.70. At the same time, the dip back to $4.18 respected the 50-day moving average, which had previously been capping rallies. That flip from resistance to support is one of the few genuinely constructive technical developments for natural gas this month. On the weekly chart, price action is working on a bullish outside week, with this week’s range engulfing last week’s and a potential close above roughly $4.22. A weekly outside bar off support, combined with a 50-day moving average test that holds, is a classic early-stage reversal structure: buyers are not in full control, but the market is no longer one-way bearish.

Intraday Picture: NG=F Stalls Under $4.35–$4.70 Band While Bullish Trend From $2.60 Survives

On the shorter two-hour timeframe, natural gas (NG=F) is coiling under a visible resistance shelf. Price has pulled back from the $4.45 spike and is oscillating around $4.25, with a descending trendline from the $5.30 swing high still leaning on the market. Both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA have clustered around the $4.35 region, acting as a dynamic cap on bounces. Multiple recent candles show long upper wicks and soft closes near this band, which confirms that rallies toward $4.35–$4.45 continue to attract selling. Fibonacci work from the $5.30 to $3.82 leg puts the important retracement zone between $4.55 and $4.75, sitting above current price and directly overlapping with the November congestion range and the recent $4.59 spike. With the RSI rolling down from the mid-60s toward the 50–55 zone, momentum has cooled rather than collapsed, which fits a market in consolidation instead of a fresh collapse. Stepping back to the daily, the broader up-leg that started from roughly $2.60 earlier in the year is still intact. The correction from the $5.50 high found demand around $3.80, and the 200-day moving average near $3.60 remains unbroken. As long as NG=F holds above $3.60–$3.80, the bigger structure stays bullish with a corrective chop inside that uptrend. A clear break above $4.70 and then $5.50 is required to re-ignite a full bullish leg; failure to reclaim $4.35–$4.55 would keep the market stuck in a noisy, mean-reverting band.

Weather Impact On NG=F: Heating Demand Rising, But Still Below “Normal”

Weather is once again the main short-term driver for natural gas (NG=F), but the data does not yet show a panic scenario. Forecasts for the United States point to a modest nationwide cooling trend through January 8, with heating degree days moving from 358 to roughly 377 on a day-over-day basis. The reference “normal” level is about 447 heating degree days, so the system is still running below a truly aggressive winter baseline. That nuance matters: the market is paying up for the optionality that the cold intensifies, not for a confirmed deep freeze. In Europe, model runs around the last pre-holiday trading session highlighted a steep temperature drop over Christmas and Boxing Day in core markets like Germany and France, with analysts characterizing the setup as winter-bullish on consumption. Europe’s weather path therefore has asymmetric power over the next few weeks: a sequence of colder spells would accelerate storage withdrawals from already lower comfort levels, while a quick reversion to milder conditions would release some of the built-up weather risk premium in TTF and, indirectly, NG=F.

Global Benchmarks: NG=F Takes Its Cue From TTF And Asia LNG

The global gas complex provides the context in which NG=F trades every day. In the final liquid European session before Christmas, the Dutch TTF front-month sat near €28.20 per MWh, roughly $9.75 per mmBtu, showing a modest uptick as traders priced colder weather risk. In Asia, spot LNG for February delivery into Northeast Asia was assessed around $9.60 per mmBtu, slightly above the previous week but still about 34% lower than at the start of 2025 because Chinese demand remains muted. That pricing triangle — Henry Hub near $4.25, TTF just under $10, Asia LNG around $9.60 — tells you that U.S. gas is still discounted versus seaborne markers. The spread is wide enough to keep U.S. LNG export plants running hard, but not wide enough to recreate 2022-style panic pricing. Freight rate declines, with Atlantic LNG shipping down to roughly $80,750 per day and Pacific around $71,250 per day, keep the Atlantic Basin routes economically viable, and current arbitrage math still nudges marginal flexible cargoes toward Europe rather than Asia. That setup is structurally bullish for NG=F so long as export facilities are fully utilized and no major outages knock feedgas demand offline.

Fundamentals Behind NG=F: Record U.S. Output Versus Record LNG Feedgas

The fundamental balance sheet for natural gas (NG=F) is a tug of war between unprecedented production and equally extreme structural demand from exports. U.S. Lower-48 output is projected around 109.8 billion cubic feet per day in December, nudging past the prior monthly record of 109.6 Bcf/d set in November. Under normal conditions, that kind of record supply would put heavy downward pressure on price. Yet LNG feedgas demand is running at about 18.4 Bcf/d so far this month, above the 18.2 Bcf/d record from November, meaning a significant slice of U.S. production is being converted into global gas every single day. When you add domestic heating and industrial demand on top of that export pull, the market suddenly cares very much about incremental weather changes and any disturbance to LNG flows. This is why you can have record supply and still be trading NG=F around $4–$5 per mmBtu into year-end instead of collapsing to the low-$2 handle seen in prior glut cycles.

Storage Picture: U.S. And European Inventories Move Out Of “Complacent” Territory

Storage is where fundamentals and weather truly meet for natural gas (NG=F). On the U.S. side, the official weekly report is delayed due to the holiday calendar, with the next release scheduled for December 29. Independent estimates point to a withdrawal on the order of 158 Bcf for the week ending December 19, which would leave inventories around 3,420 Bcf, roughly 125 Bcf below last year and about 70 Bcf under the five-year average. That is not a crisis level, but it does mark a clear transition away from the overstuffed conditions that dominated earlier in the year. In Europe, storage numbers are now firmly in the zone where traders stop relaxing and start recalculating risk. EU gas storage sits around 66–66.5% full, equivalent to roughly 755 TWh in tank. After a mild start to winter, draws have accelerated, and every new cold spell chips away at the buffer. The combination of tighter U.S. storage relative to recent history and European inventories moving out of the “too comfortable” zone adds a structural floor under NG=F, particularly if late-January turns colder on both sides of the Atlantic.

Holiday Liquidity And NG=F: Why Price Swings Look Bigger Than The Story

The current period for NG=F is defined as much by who is absent as by who is trading. Holiday conditions across major hubs mean fewer active players, reduced depth in order books, and exaggerated reactions to incremental headlines. That environment explains how Henry Hub could spike to $4.59, reverse back below $4.25, and still be trading within a broader consolidation regime defined by the $3.80–$4.70 zone. It also explains why technical levels, such as the 50-day moving average around $4.18 and the 20-day around $4.87, can trigger outsized moves when tested. With the January contract approaching expiry and liquidity already migrating toward the next month, front-month prints are particularly noisy. For positioning decisions, professionals focus more on the structural markers — 200-day moving average near $3.60, weekly outside bars, storage relative to norms, and export volumes — than on one or two thin, pre-holiday candles.

Geopolitics, Oil And Cross-Energy Risk Premium In NG=F

Natural gas does not trade in isolation; it sits inside a broader energy risk complex. Recent days have seen WTI crude rebound from long-term support around $55 to the $58–$59 area, with technical structures still pointing to a broader falling channel but with geopolitics keeping a bid under the tape. Sanctions pressure on Venezuelan shipments, tanker seizures and disruptions, and delays in Russia’s LNG expansion plans all push a risk premium into energy curves. Russia’s own LNG ambitions have been forced to adjust, with strategy documents now envisioning roughly 90–105 million tons per year by 2030 and 110–130 million by 2036, while the country currently holds around an 8% global LNG share and aims for 20% over the next decade. Sanctions on Arctic projects and challenges securing specialized ice-class tankers mean a larger share of theoretical Russian supply may never hit the spot market smoothly. For NG=F, this blend of oil-linked risk premium and constrained future LNG growth acts as a medium-term underpinning: when the world worries about getting molecules from point A to B, Henry Hub tends to price that uncertainty, especially now that U.S. gas is deeply integrated into global LNG flows.