Rivian RIVN Stock vs Tesla TSLA Stock: $14.35 vs $421 and the EV Market Divide

Rivian RIVN Stock vs Tesla TSLA Stock: $14.35 vs $421 and the EV Market Divide

RIVN bets on a $5B Georgia plant and VW’s $5.8B deal, while TSLA scales global gigafactories with 1.8M vehicles and 45% U.S. EV market share | That's TradingNEWS

TradingNEWS Archive 9/16/2025 4:54:31 PM
Stocks TSLA NIO RIVN TM

Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) vs Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Scale and Market Cap Divide

Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) trades at $14.35, valuing the company at $17.4 billion, while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) trades at $421.07, giving it a market capitalization of $1.35 trillion. That means Tesla is nearly 77× larger by value, despite producing roughly 1.8 million vehicles per year compared with Rivian’s guidance of 40,000–46,000 deliveries in 2025. Rivian accounts for just 0.5% of Tesla’s volumes, yet trades at about 1.3% of Tesla’s market cap.

Revenue and Profitability Comparison

Rivian generated $5.15 billion in trailing revenue, growing 12.5% year-over-year, but continues to post deep losses, with a net loss of $3.51 billion and EPS of –$3.21. Its profit margin sits at –68%. Tesla, by contrast, delivered over $96 billion in 2024 revenue with consistent profitability and margins supported by scale. Rivian’s price-to-sales ratio of 2.88× appears stretched against Tesla’s larger base of recurring sales.

Liquidity, Debt, and Free Cash Flow

Rivian has $7.51 billion in cash, giving it near-term breathing room, but levered free cash flow is –$742 million, and debt stands at $4.9 billion with a debt-to-equity ratio of 80.57%. Tesla’s balance sheet is far stronger, generating positive operating cash flow with debt supported by higher equity returns. Rivian’s return on equity of –54% and return on assets of –14.5% contrast with Tesla’s positive double-digit returns.

Expansion and Scaling Plans

Rivian’s key catalyst is the $5 billion Georgia plant, expected to produce 200,000 vehicles annually by 2028, with a potential phase two doubling that number. Tesla already operates gigafactories in Texas, California, Shanghai, and Berlin, giving it unmatched capacity. Rivian’s Illinois plant is capped at 215,000 units, and its current R1T and R1S models start at $71,000, pricing them in a premium segment. Tesla’s mass-market Model 3 and Model Y drove its expansion, starting below $50,000, while Rivian’s cheaper R2 SUV ($45,000) won’t launch until 2026.

Policy and Competitive Pressures

Rivian faces headwinds as U.S. tax credits of $7,500 per EV expire after September 30, 2025, removing a $140 million annual benefit. Tariffs add $2,000 per vehicle in costs, amplifying losses. Tesla, while also affected, has deeper pricing power and stronger margins, allowing it to discount aggressively to protect share. Rivian controls just 3% of the U.S. EV market, compared with Tesla’s 45% and GM’s 13%.

 

 

Institutional and Insider Activity

Institutional ownership in Rivian sits at 66.25%, with hedge funds like Intech boosting holdings by 522% to 350,965 shares worth $4.37 million. However, short interest remains high at 154.4 million shares, about 14.7% of float. Insiders have been trimming stakes — CEO Robert Scaringe sold 17,450 shares at $14.00 and CFO Claire McDonough sold 7,247 shares at $12.28 (insider data here). Tesla’s insider activity, by contrast, includes Elon Musk’s recent $1 billion personal buyback, which restored confidence and lifted the stock from steep 2025 losses.

Analyst Targets and Market Sentiment

For Rivian, analysts maintain mixed views: price targets span from $7.55 (low) to $21 (high), with an average of $13.85, close to current levels. Tesla’s targets extend beyond $500, with some long-term projections eyeing a $8.5 trillion market cap by 2035. Market sentiment sees Rivian as high risk with limited near-term upside, while Tesla remains the benchmark for EV scale and profitability.

Buy, Sell, or Hold Verdict: RIVN vs TSLA

On the data, Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) remains speculative. Despite liquidity and Volkswagen’s $5.8 billion partnership, Rivian burns cash heavily, faces slowing EV demand, and is priced at stretched multiples relative to peers. Without scaling the R2 platform successfully, Rivian risks becoming a value trap. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), even at a higher valuation, is supported by scale, profitability, and dominant global market share. The verdict: Tesla = Buy, Rivian = Sell/Hold speculative only until production and margins improve.

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