Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Clings to the $125–$145 Zone as Futures Flush, ETFs Accumulate and SKR Airdrop Hits the Market

Solana (SOL-USD) Price Snapshot – Volatile Support Test Around $125–$145

Short-Term Pressure: SOL-USD Stuck Between $125 Support And $145 Resistance

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading in a volatile band, with spot prices oscillating between roughly $125 and $145. On one feed, SOL changed hands near $128.29, down 2.6% over 24 hours, with an intraday range between $125.78 and $131.77. Over the last week, the token is still down about 11.4%, while the past 30 days show only a modest gain of around 1.5%, confirming a cooling phase after the previous run-up.
On another venue, SOL-USD briefly printed close to $143.26, down 1.12% on the day, with a market cap near $80.92 billion and daily volume of about $4.02 billion, down roughly 29.14%, signaling that traders are less aggressive on breakouts and more cautious on new leverage.
The repeated tests of the $125–$130 band after a four-day sell-off show that this zone is the immediate line in the sand. As long as $125 holds, buyers still have a foothold; a clear loss of this area opens the door to deeper retracements.

Derivatives And ETF Flows: Long Liquidations Versus Quiet Accumulation

Futures data confirms that the last move was driven by a flush of over-leveraged longs rather than a structural collapse. Solana open interest sits around $7.92 billion, down roughly 2.05% over 24 hours, meaning some capital has left the derivatives complex instead of doubling down on risk.
Liquidation data is skewed sharply to the long side: in one 24-hour window, long liquidations reached about $41.99 million, versus only $1.33 million in shorts. That is classic late-cycle behavior: traders chasing upside with high leverage and getting forced out as price grinds lower, even though spot support levels still hold.
In parallel, spot Solana ETFs in the US saw net inflows of about $3.8 million on Tuesday, reversing roughly $2.22 million of outflows from Friday. Institutional capital is not chasing tops, but it is quietly adding SOL exposure on dips while retail traders unwind leveraged longs. That divergence – ETF inflows against washed-out futures – is an important signal that the structural bid for SOL-USD remains intact even as short-term momentum weakens.

Daily Technical Picture: Momentum Weakens, Path Of Least Resistance Still Down

On the daily chart, SOL-USD is trading below several key moving averages. The 20-day EMA near $135 has turned down and is rolling away from the 50-day EMA, reinforcing short-term selling pressure. On higher time frames, the 20, 50, 100 and 200 EMAs cluster between roughly $136 and $162, all above current price, which creates a thick overhead supply zone that will not be cleared without a decisive shift in sentiment.
Momentum indicators confirm that sellers still control the tape. The MACD line remains below the signal line, with negative histogram bars widening toward the zero line, showing that bearish momentum has not fully exhausted yet. The RSI bounced from oversold conditions on some frames but still sits around 41 and below the 50 midline, a typical configuration for a market in a corrective downtrend rather than a fresh impulsive rally.
Bollinger Bands show price hugging the lower band, with the middle band around $131–$133 acting as a near-term pivot. Failure to reclaim that mid-band with conviction keeps the downside scenario on the table, even if short-term bounces occur from oversold readings.

Support And Resistance Map: From $126 To $195 And Beyond

Price structure across multiple analyses converges on the same key levels for SOL-USD. On the downside, traders are watching a support pocket between $128 and $125 as a “high-quality accumulation zone.” Each dip into this band has attracted buyers aggressively, preventing clean breakdowns. If this shelf fails, the next strong support cluster sits between the December 18 low near $116 and the S1 pivot around $112. Below $112, sentiment can deteriorate quickly, and a round trip toward the psychological $100 area becomes realistic.
On the upside, there are several layers of resistance. Short term, $145–$148 is a critical ceiling, aligning with the 100-day EMA around $147. A clean move from the $125–$128 base toward $150 is possible if buyers maintain bid intensity, but that rally will run into profit-taking at the $145–$150 belt.
On the higher-timeframe trend tools, the Supertrend indicator remains firmly bearish, with the trend line sitting far above spot around $195.85. For SOL-USD to flip the medium-term structure back into a strong uptrend, price ultimately needs to break and hold above the $195–$200 zone. A sustained close over that level would open the path to re-test the previous high area north of $220. At this stage, that scenario is possible but not yet visible in the current momentum profile.

Pattern Structure: Ascending Triangle Base Versus Broken Support Trendline

Higher-timeframe structure for SOL-USD remains more constructive than the short-term charts suggest. On a two-week chart, price is probing the lower boundary of a long-forming ascending triangle, with the lower trendline acting as dynamic support. Bulls are stepping in each time SOL approaches this diagonal base, treating it as a strategic accumulation point rather than capitulating.
At the same time, some analysts highlight that Solana recently broke a critical support trendline, triggering a swift leg down and sending price toward the $126 support area. That breakdown is what fueled the recent weekly loss of about 11.4% despite only 1.5% gains over 30 days.
These conflicting signals – an intact higher-timeframe triangle but a broken local support line – explain the current choppy action. For now, $126 is the battlefield level. A decisive rebound from that area with strong candles can confirm the ascending triangle base is still valid. A clean, high-volume break below $125 would invalidate that structure and hand control to bears targeting $116–$112.

Oscillators: Oversold Conditions But No Confirmed Reversal Yet

Short-term oscillators are flashing stress but not yet a firm bottom. The Stochastic Oscillator on weekly horizons is in oversold territory, a zone from which prior bounces in SOL-USD have emerged. However, the %K line is still below the %D line, meaning bearish momentum remains in control until a bullish crossover appears.
RSI has rebounded off oversold but sits below 50, which normally marks a market still in a corrective or distribution phase. The MACD on multi-day setups is improving – bearish momentum is weakening – but remains below zero, signaling that any upside move from here would initially be a counter-trend rally rather than a fully confirmed trend reversal.
Technically, this favors a scenario where SOL-USD can stage short-term rebounds toward $145–$150, especially if ETF inflows persist, but where failed bounces are still a serious risk until oscillators re-anchor above neutral.

Solana Ecosystem Tailwind: SKR Token Airdrop Ignites Mobile Segment

While price consolidates, the Solana ecosystem just absorbed one of its largest mobile-related events: the Solana Mobile Seeker (SKR) token launch. The SKR token, tied to the Solana Mobile Seeker phone, surged over 55% intraday to around $0.0128, with trading volume jumping roughly 6,500% to about $41.81 million. That move propelled SKR into the list of most-watched micro-caps in the market.
The driver was a massive airdrop of nearly 2 billion SKR, representing 20% of the total 10-billion token supply, distributed to over 100,000 Seeker phone users and around 188 developers. User allocations ranged from 5,000 to 750,000 SKR depending on device usage and on-chain activity during “Season 1,” while developers received about 141 million SKR, also in tranches up to 750,000 tokens per team.
This was not just marketing. During Season 1, the Solana Mobile ecosystem processed roughly 9 million on-chain transactions and around $2.6 billion in volume across 265 decentralized applications. SKR sits at the core of this mini-economy, used for staking, governance, and rewards, allowing users to delegate to “Guardians” who verify devices and curate the mobile dApp store.
From a tokenomics standpoint, SKR’s supply is split with 30% reserved for airdrops (20% now, 10% later), 25% for partnerships, 15% for Solana Mobile, 10% for Solana Labs, 10% for a community treasury, and 10% for liquidity. That design pushes ownership toward active users and ecosystem builders rather than pure speculators.
However, this distribution also introduced intense short-term volatility. In pre-market trading around the claim window, SKR plunged about 53.4%, cutting fully diluted valuation to roughly $76.9 million as early claimants rushed to sell a portion of their airdrop. That dual behavior – a vertical spike to $0.0128 followed by a brutal flush – is textbook airdrop price action.
For SOL-USD, the SKR episode matters for two reasons: it deepens the “mobile-first” use case around Solana and proves the chain can support high-volume retail airdrops tied to hardware, but it also briefly absorbs speculative capital that might otherwise chase SOL itself. In the medium term, a vibrant SKR economy is a net positive for Solana’s narrative as a high-throughput consumer blockchain.

Network Fundamentals: High Usage Versus Macro Drag

On-chain, Solana continues to look like one of the strongest large-cap blockchains. DeFi protocols, NFT markets, and now mobile infrastructure all lean on its combination of low fees and high transaction throughput. That is why, even with spot price under pressure, network usage metrics remain robust and the Solana ETF inflows stay positive.
The headwind is macro. Global risk appetite for altcoins has cooled, not just for SOL. International liquidity conditions are tighter, regulatory visibility is still inconsistent, and some capital is migrating into payment-focused projects like Remittix (RTX). RTX, for example, trades near $0.123, has raised roughly $28.8 million, sold over 701 million tokens, launched a wallet on iOS, and is preparing a PayFi crypto-to-fiat rails rollout in February 2026. That kind of targeted infrastructure play can divert part of the speculative and “infrastructure thesis” capital that might have gone into broader platform coins like Solana in previous cycles.
The overall sentiment is fragile: traders watch Bitcoin around the $87,000–$90,000 zone as the primary risk gauge. As long as macro uncertainty persists and BTC trades nervously below recent highs, SOL-USD will likely see any sharp rallies sold into, with upside capped by overhead resistance despite solid network health.

Macro Overlay: Tariff Noise And Global Risk-Off Episodes

Beyond crypto-native factors, Solana is trading in an environment shaped by geopolitical tension and tariff noise. Threats of new US tariffs under President Trump’s stance have triggered broader risk-off waves across equities and digital assets. In this regime, high-beta altcoins like SOL-USD absorb more downside than large caps on bad days and recover more slowly when sentiment stabilizes.
This macro blend explains why Solana ETFs can still attract a net $3.8 million inflow while its spot price remains stuck below $130–$145 and futures open interest shrinks. Institutional allocators adjust gradually, using regulated vehicles and buying strategic exposure on weakness, while speculative traders react directly to headlines and reduce leverage aggressively.
Until markets get clearer signals on tariffs, rates, and global liquidity, Solana will remain vulnerable to macro shocks even if its internal fundamentals outperform competitors.

Scenario Analysis: Ranges, Triggers, And Tactical Levels For SOL-USD

Short term, the key battlefield zones are clearly defined. As long as SOL-USD holds $125–$128, the market supports a “rebound then reassess” narrative. From that base, a reflex move toward $145–$150 is feasible, especially if futures liquidations cool and ETF inflows continue.
If buyers manage to reclaim and defend the $145–$150 band, the next target becomes the cluster of EMAs between roughly $150 and $162. Breaking that band would be the first serious sign that the correction is over and that SOL-USD is preparing to challenge $195–$200 and the Supertrend line. Only a sustained break and hold above $195.85, followed by acceptance over $200, would reopen the path toward the previous high region above $220.
On the downside, a clean, high-volume break below $125 exposes the $116–$112 support shelf. That is the region where medium-term investors with a bullish structural view on Solana will likely look to accumulate. A failure there would shift the conversation to a potential retest of the $100 psychological level, which would represent roughly another 20%–25% drawdown from the current $125–$130 range.

Verdict On Solana (SOL-USD): Tactical Caution, Structural Bullish Bias – Overall Rating: HOLD

Taking all the data together – spot price around $125–$145, a weekly drawdown of about 11.4%, muted 30-day gains of 1.5%, $7.92 billion in open interest shrinking, nearly $42 million in forced long liquidations, $3.8 million of fresh ETF inflows, strong network usage, and a high-impact 2-billion SKR mobile airdrop – the picture is mixed but not bearish capitulation.
Technically, SOL-USD is still living below its key moving averages, with oscillators pointing to ongoing downside pressure and only early signs of momentum stabilizing. That argues for tactical caution in the near term and keeps the risk of a slide toward $116–$112 on the table if $125 breaks.
Structurally, the thesis remains bullish: Solana’s ecosystem is expanding into mobile, DeFi, and NFTs; its ETF products are attracting capital; and higher-timeframe structures like the ascending triangle are not yet invalidated.
Putting this together, the current risk-reward profile is best described as:

• Rating: HOLD on Solana (SOL-USD) at the $125–$145 band.

• Bias: accumulate on deep dips toward $115–$120, reduce exposure on spikes into the $145–$150 resistance until price proves it can reclaim and hold the $150–$160 region.

That stance respects the ongoing correction, acknowledges the downside risk toward $112–$100, and still credits the underlying network and ecosystem data that justify a constructive long-term view on Solana once the current macro and technical headwinds ease.

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