Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Trades at $154 as ETF Euphoria Fades and $150 Support Turns Decisive

Solana (SOL-USD) Faces a Critical Turning Point as ETF Euphoria Fades and $150 Support Becomes Line of Defense

Institutional Momentum Peaks While Retail Interest Stalls

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading near $154, down more than 3.2% in the past 24 hours, and nearly 32% lower over the last 30 days. Despite the historic approval of two U.S.-listed Solana exchange-traded funds — the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) and VanEck Solana Trust (VSOL) — the token has failed to maintain bullish momentum. The Bitwise fund, launched on October 28 2025, opened with $69 million in inflows and a first-day volume of $56 million, yet the underlying asset fell instead of rallying.

This disconnect between institutional activity and token performance echoes Ethereum’s ETF debut earlier this year. Institutional capital continues to accumulate through funds and treasuries, but retail traders are showing fatigue. Over $400 million has flowed into Solana-based ETFs since September, making it one of the strongest altcoin inflows of 2025, yet SOL-USD has dropped from $178 to $150 in three weeks.

ETF Launches and Wall Street Exposure Fail to Ignite a Price Breakout

While ETF adoption confirms Solana’s integration into mainstream finance, the underlying blockchain faces bottlenecks. On-chain data reveals a clear slowdown in daily transaction volume and DeFi engagement, which peaked in July when meme-coin activity surged through Pump Swap and LetsBonk.fun, only to collapse after August.

Top lending app Kamino holds $2.75 billion TVL, but that’s barely a tenth of Aave’s $25 billion on Ethereum. Developers continue to cite Solana’s validator centralization — fewer than 2,200 active nodes handle nearly all network traffic — as the reason some major DeFi protocols remain hesitant to migrate. The price slump following the Official Trump ($TRUMP) token launch in January further exposed Solana’s reliance on speculative retail flows rather than sustained institutional liquidity.

Heavy Corporate Treasury Buying Offers Stability but Not Yet Growth

Solana’s institutional exposure is broad but fragmented. Forward Industries holds an estimated 1.2% of total circulating supply with a $1.6 billion investment, while nine other companies collectively control 3% of market cap, primarily through long-term custody accounts. This deep treasury integration helps support liquidity, but the absence of a thriving decentralized ecosystem limits transactional demand.

The contrast with Ethereum remains sharp: Solana’s throughput advantage — 65,000 TPS vs. Ethereum’s 15 — is overshadowed by reliability concerns after several network slowdowns in 2025. Even as validators upgrade infrastructure to reduce downtime, every minor disruption erodes investor trust, dampening speculative inflows that previously drove parabolic rallies.

Technical Breakdown: The $150 Zone Becomes the Decisive Pivot

From a technical standpoint, SOL-USD has breached a seven-month ascending trendline, now resting on horizontal support between $150 and $155. The short-term structure shows the coin sitting below both the 50-day EMA and 200-day SMA, confirming a shift into a corrective phase. If buyers fail to defend this range, a slide toward $138 – $140 becomes highly probable, followed by a deeper drawdown to $120 — the next key demand zone aligned with the 200-week EMA.

However, traders note potential for a relief bounce to $170 – $175, a level matching the 9-day EMA and prior rejection zone. RSI near 37 suggests that selling pressure may be easing, while open interest data shows short positions rising 18% week-on-week — an imbalance that could trigger a short squeeze if prices reclaim $160.

Macro Headwinds and U.S. Policy Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment

Macroeconomic turbulence adds another layer to Solana’s pressure. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now entering day 38, and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut rates in December have drained liquidity from risk assets. Traders linking crypto momentum to Nasdaq correlation point to the S&P 500’s 4% weekly drop as a major sentiment drag.

Furthermore, President Trump’s renewed tariff stance on Chinese imports has rattled tech and digital-asset markets alike. These developments have strengthened the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), creating a short-term headwind for all altcoins, especially those tied to U.S.-based ETFs.

Analysts Debate Whether $154 Marks the Cycle Floor

Despite the gloom, several institutional strategists see Solana (SOL-USD) approaching a cyclical bottom. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that Solana’s twin exposure to stablecoins and asset tokenization offers “two structural profit paths” that could fuel 2x – 10x appreciation once risk appetite returns. He notes that Bitcoin dominance, recently down from 61.4% to 60.2%, may signal an approaching altcoin rotation similar to late 2019.

Macro trader Michael van de Poppe echoed this view, comparing current valuations to Q4 2019 levels, implying the market sits mid-cycle rather than near a top. On social data, Santiment recorded a 15% jump in positive Solana mentions after the ETF approval, despite the falling price — a divergence that often precedes recovery waves.

On-Chain Data and Whale Behavior Show Cautious Accumulation

Wallet analytics from Artemis and IntoTheBlock reveal subtle accumulation among large holders. The number of wallets holding over 100,000 SOL rose from 1,084 to 1,123 in the past two weeks, while exchange reserves declined 6.7%, indicating modest off-exchange storage. Still, transaction counts dropped from 38 million per day in July to 22 million in November, highlighting declining retail activity.

Network revenue — measured through gas fees and validator commissions — fell to $4.3 million weekly, down 41% from August, showing how reduced usage is squeezing validator profitability even as staking yields near 7.3% annualized through the Bitwise ETF.

Competing Narratives: DeFi Lag vs. AI Integration

While Solana’s DeFi sector underperforms, its venture into AI-linked infrastructure could define the next growth chapter. Partnerships with DeepSnitch AI and Render Network integrate Solana smart contracts into AI data pipelines and GPU resource allocation — positioning SOL as a layer-one backbone for decentralized computing. The presale of DeepSnitch AI’s native token has already raised $500,000, signaling speculative overlap between the AI and Solana ecosystems.

Meanwhile, some investors are rotating toward hybrid projects like BlockchainFX (BFX) — a token merging crypto and traditional finance — seeing its $10 million presale as a hedge against sluggish Solana returns. This diversion of liquidity underscores how Solana must reignite on-chain engagement if it wants to maintain market leadership among layer-ones.

Short-Term Trading Levels and Sentiment Outlook

The immediate range remains well-defined:

• Support: $150 – $155

• Resistance: $170 – $175

• Extended Upside Target: $200

• Breakdown Risk: $138 → $120

Volume spikes on dips show algorithmic accumulation, but derivatives data indicates funding rates turning negative ( – 0.015% on Binance ), suggesting bears remain in control. Any sustained close above $158 – $160 would confirm structural reversal; failure could invite cascade liquidations of over-leveraged longs toward $135.

Verdict: HOLD — Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Potential Intact

SOL-USD is locked between powerful opposing forces — heavy institutional buying through ETFs and treasuries versus waning on-chain participation and macro risk aversion. The $150 support is decisive: a clean rebound could project prices toward $200 in the next rally, but a breakdown would extend losses toward $120 before true accumulation resumes.

With long-term catalysts like AI integration, tokenization initiatives, and growing ETF infrastructure, the structural story remains intact. The near-term landscape, however, demands patience.
Recommendation: HOLD — Bullish above $150, bearish below $138; target $200 in mid-2026.

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