Stock Market Soars as Dow Jumps 400pts, S&P 500 Sets Record

Dow Surges on Trade Optimism While Nasdaq Lags Tech Turbulence

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) led U.S. benchmarks with a 413-point gain (+0.9%), buoyed by aggressive trade diplomacy from President Trump. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 0.5% to 6339.02, locking in its third consecutive record close. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added a modest 0.2% to 20,936.39, weighed down by earnings caution from major techs like Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL).

Market momentum was sparked by Trump's announcement of a "massive" bilateral trade pact with Japan that installs a 15% reciprocal tariff, derailing the previous 25% threat. Tokyo in return committed to $550 billion in U.S. investment, sending shares of Toyota (NYSE:TM) soaring +13.12% to $192.15 and Honda (NYSE:HMC) rallying +12.86% to $34.32. Asian automakers from Mazda (7261.T) to Mitsubishi Motors (7211.T) recorded double-digit spikes as well.

Trade Domino Effect: EU, Indonesia, Philippines Pacts in Motion

Markets are now pricing in spillover deals. The Financial Times reported that the U.S. and EU are nearing their own 15% tariff agreement, echoing the Japan model. Diplomatic chatter suggests it could materialize before the August 1 deadline, the point when retaliatory 30% tariffs might otherwise be activated. Talks with Indonesia and the Philippines have advanced quickly; trade terms have been outlined and ratified.

The White House’s push to finalize multiple pacts before August has introduced rare policy clarity, drawing investor conviction. Keith Buchanan of Globalt Investments noted that this return to predictable foreign trade protocol has reignited “animal spirits,” particularly in cyclical and industrial names.

Meme Frenzy Reloaded: GoPro, Krispy Kreme, Kohl’s Take Center Stage

Retail traders resumed speculative rotations. GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) exploded +21.1% to $1.66, while Krispy Kreme (NASDAQ:DNUT) climbed +3.63% to $4.28 after premarket jumps exceeding 20%. Meanwhile, Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS), after spiking +38% Tuesday, plunged -15.62% to $12.10 in a dramatic whipsaw, spotlighting volatility in meme-fueled momentum. Analysts at S3 Partners warned the stock is now a “battleground” with balanced long-short pressure.

Tech Stocks Diverge: Tesla and Alphabet Face Critical Earnings Test

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) was flat at $0.02% gain, trading near its one-month high but still -17% YTD, as investors await second-quarter results. Expectations are muted: analysts project $22.79 billion in revenue, a 9% drop YoY, with EPS at $0.43. Elon Musk is expected to emphasize the robotaxi narrative, but visibility remains poor. Price target consensus sits at $313.66, implying 6% downside.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) faces its own crossroads. Despite riding a 10-day rally streak, the stock slipped -0.99%, trading at $190.55. Investors want proof that AI investments are generating real revenue. Forecasts anticipate $2.17 EPS on $79.6 billion ex-TAC revenue, with Google Cloud expected to post $13.1 billion (+26% YoY). Yet, mounting antitrust threats and integration concerns are clouding sentiment.

IBM (NYSE:IBM) remains less volatile, down slightly but just 4% off yearly highs. The average price target of $280.29 reflects a conservative 2% downside, indicating that institutional sentiment is neutral.

Texas Instruments, Enphase Collapse Under Tariff and Demand Pressures

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) suffered one of the sharpest selloffs of the session, plunging -11.8% to $189.55 after guiding Q3 EPS between $1.36 and $1.60, undercutting the Street’s $1.50 midpoint. Despite Q2 earnings of $1.41 on $4.45 billion revenue (a beat), executives admitted uncertainty about how much of that surge was merely pre-tariff inventory hoarding.

Tariff-related unease also crushed Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH), which collapsed -14.73% to $36.24. The company now expects the U.S. residential solar market to shrink 20% in 2026, after tax credits were slashed in Trump’s new fiscal package. The sector faces a policy cliff amid already elevated financing costs and industry bankruptcies.

AT&T Subscriber Beat Overshadowed by Weak Price Action

AT&T (NYSE:T) beat both profit and subscriber expectations, adding 401,000 net wireless users vs. a 295,700 estimate. However, the stock still slipped -0.07% to $27.40. The telecom giant is projecting $6.5B–$8B in tax savings through 2027, thanks to the Trump administration’s new deductions, and has committed $3.5B to fiber expansion. Yet, the market’s reaction implies investors are looking past one-time windfalls and focusing on long-term growth gaps.

Morgan Stanley Says Lockheed Martin “Too Cheap to Ignore”

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) remains under pressure, down 15.5% YTD, but Morgan Stanley has doubled down, reiterating an Overweight rating. Analyst Kristine Liwag adjusted her price target down to $530, still implying a robust +29% upside. The firm sees continued growth in the F-35 program, missile defense, and Iron Dome exports, especially as global defense budgets accelerate.

Homebuilders, Housing Diverge: Toll Brothers Upgraded as Sales Slide

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) got a Buy upgrade from Seaport Partners with a $161 target, representing +27% upside from current levels. Analyst Kenneth Zener praised the builder’s pivot toward higher-velocity, entry-level luxury homes, and lower exposure to Texas/Florida. Meanwhile, existing home sales for June disappointed, sliding 2.7% MoM to 3.93 million units, well below the 4 million forecast, even as median prices rose 2% YoY to $435,300, setting a June record.

JPMorgan Sounds Alarm on Market Complacency

Despite the euphoria in equities, JPMorgan’s Khuram Chaudhry sees fragility under the surface. Global EPS revisions fell -14.3% MoM and -18.7% over three months, a signal the recent rally lacks earnings support. He warned that investors are mistaking momentum for durability, noting the market’s current high exposure to Tech and the “Magnificent 7”, sectors most vulnerable to profit compression if AI hype stalls or tariffs escalate.

Gold Pulls Back as Risk Appetite Rises

Gold (COMEX:GC=F) retreated 1.29% to $3,399.20/oz, following a 3-day rally. The easing of tariff anxieties after the U.S.-Japan deal dented safe-haven demand. Still, bullion remains up ~30% YTD, fueled by geopolitical tensions and Fed policy uncertainty. Traders remain alert to the EU’s $100B retaliatory tariff threat, which could revive gold inflows.

Verdict: S&P 500 (SPX) remains Bullish, powered by expanding trade clarity and resilient earnings. Dow Jones (DJIA) is also Bullish, with industrials and autos benefiting from global deal momentum. Nasdaq (IXIC) is Neutral to Bearish short-term, with mega-cap tech earnings posing asymmetric downside risk. TSLA: Hold, GOOGL: Cautious Buy, TXN: Sell, ENPH: Sell, LMT: Buy, TOL: Buy, T: Hold. Markets are rewarding clarity and punishing ambiguity. Investors should act accordingly.

That's TradingNEWS