XRP ETF Boom: XRPI at $11.07 and XRPR at $15.76 Ride a $1.21B Wave

Ripple’s XRP ETF Trade: XRPI and XRPR at the Center of the New XRP Cycle

Price Snapshot: XRPI, XRPR and XRP-USD Into the Last Week of 2025

XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) closed at $11.07, up 6.03% on the day, with after-hours ticking marginally lower to $11.06. The ETF jumped from a previous close of $10.44, traded in a $10.81–$11.12 intraday range, and sits just above its quoted year low of $10.44 and well below its $23.53 year high. Average daily volume is roughly 561.9K shares, which is adequate liquidity but still concentrated enough that flows can move the price when XRP-USD has a strong day.
XRPR (BATS:XRPR, REX Osprey XRP ETF) finished at $15.76, up 6.56% from a previous close of $14.79, inside a $15.33–$15.76 session range and against a $14.79–$25.99 annual band. Average volume is far thinner at about 40.4K shares, which makes XRPR a higher-beta, less liquid expression of the XRP theme compared with XRPI.
The underlying XRP-USD spot price is trading around $1.91 with roughly $2.38B in 24-hour volume and a market cap around $116–117B. Price is down roughly 1% on the day and about 7% year to date, despite spot XRP ETF approvals and a pro-crypto policy stance from Washington. The critical near-term level is the psychological $2.00 line, which the market keeps testing and rejecting.

ETF Flows: XRPI and XRPR Riding a $1.21 Billion XRP ETF Inflow Wave

U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs have already crossed roughly $1.21B in net assets since their mid-November launch, with cumulative net inflows around $1.07B and a streak of about 32 consecutive trading days of positive flows and no outflow days. XRPI and XRPR are part of this new wrapper complex that includes products such as Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ, and all of them are pulling primary market demand directly into XRP-USD.
The key point for XRPI and XRPR is that more than a billion dollars has been committed to regulated XRP exposure in a period when the broader crypto market is cooling and many altcoins are losing interest. That kind of flow profile in a down-tape tells you this is not just a retail mania spike. Asset managers, RIAs, pensions and insurers are allocating real money to XRP ETF wrappers, and XRPI and XRPR are effectively levered to that structural flow as long as the inflow streak holds.

Regulatory Reset: From SEC Overhang to Pro-Crypto Policy Tailwind for XRP ETFs

In 2020, the SEC sued Ripple for allegedly selling XRP as an unregistered security. In 2023, a U.S. district court drew a hard line between illegal institutional sales and permissible programmatic sales on exchanges, creating a split ruling that hung over the token for years. That legal cloud finally shifted when the SEC dropped its appeal and accepted a settlement that left a roughly $125M fine in place while closing the case against Ripple and its executives.
At the same time, the Trump administration has leaned into crypto. The White House signed an executive order establishing a national digital asset stockpile, and a clear crypto-supportive figure was installed at the SEC. That combination—case closed plus political cover—removed the single biggest adoption overhang for XRP-USD and opened the door for U.S. spot XRP ETFs like XRPI and XRPR to launch on mainstream venues (NASDAQ, BATS, NYSE Arca) with fully disclosed structures and regulated custodians.
For XRPI and XRPR, this matters more than any single short-term price move. Regulatory clarity takes the “binary lawsuit risk” off the table, which is exactly what large allocators require before signing off on exposure. The flows into XRP ETFs since November are the direct, quantifiable proof: over $1.0B has arrived only after the legal risk line moved.

XRP-USD Fundamentals: Payments Utility, SWIFT Disruption Ambitions and the Stablecoin Reality Check

XRP is the native asset of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), a blockchain optimized for cross-border payments, with settlement in roughly 4–5 seconds and fees so low that users historically “barely notice” them. The strategic goal is simple: attack the pain points of SWIFT, which still dominates international bank transfers with higher fees and multi-day settlement.
Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse has floated an aggressive target: XRP capturing around 14% of SWIFT’s payment volume—over $20T—within five years. If that scenario actually plays out, sustained demand for XRP-USD as a bridge currency and settlement asset would justify a radically higher price than today’s $1.91.
However, the on-chain data is more sober. Monthly transaction volume on XRPL has declined steadily over the last two years, even as the legal headwind cleared and the regulatory environment turned more favorable. At the same time, the market has migrated heavily toward stablecoins for cross-border flows. Ripple itself has responded by launching Ripple USD (RLUSD), but that product competes directly with established players like USDC.
For XRPI and XRPR, this split is critical. The long-term “utility runway” is large—payments, liquidity, corporate treasury—but the actual usage metrics do not yet justify the most aggressive narratives. That gap is where the ETF trade lives: you are effectively buying the claim that regulatory clarity, institutional wrappers, and future utility will drag fundamentals up to match the story.

XRPL Lending and “Institutional-Grade Yield”: Yield Infrastructure as the Next Catalyst

The next structural catalyst around XRP is the proposed XRPL Lending Protocol, which Ripple engineers are pushing toward validator voting around late January 2026. The design centers on fixed-term, fixed-rate, underwritten credit, using Single Asset Vaults to isolate risk. The goal is to let XRP holders deploy capital into protocol-level lending without resorting to fragile third-party DeFi structures.
Ripple’s broader ecosystem adds more pieces. The Evernorth treasury infrastructure is built specifically around XRP, taking roles in validation, liquidity provision and yield strategies. The RLUSD stablecoin plus relationships such as the Hidden Road deal point toward a future where corporate treasuries and trading firms can run cross-margin and liquidity strategies directly on XRPL.
For XRPI and XRPR, this matters because “institutional-grade yield” is what turns a simple directional bet into a more complete capital-markets asset. If the lending protocol goes live and gains traction, the underlying XRP-USD could move from being a pure price-appreciation trade to being a yield-plus-beta asset. That mix is exactly what multi-asset funds and corporate treasurers look for, and it would support higher, stickier demand that flows back into XRP ETFs.

The “Third Path” Story: XRP ETFs Between Bitcoin Hype and Ethereum Friction

Bitcoin’s spot ETF launch in early 2024 was a once-in-a-generation event that benefited from a full bull market, heavy media coverage and a clean “digital gold” narrative. Ethereum’s ETF rollout was slower, with more complex token economics and regulatory questions around staking. XRP ETFs like XRPI and XRPR are being framed by asset managers as a “third path”: less speculative than small-cap altcoins, more utility-anchored than a pure store-of-value pitch, and backed by clearer legal status post-settlement.
Industry CIOs have highlighted several concrete points. First, reaching $1.21B in XRP ETF assets in a down market is a strong signal that demand is not just momentum-chasing. Second, many traditional investors find XRP easier to explain: it maps directly to payment rails, liquidity movement, and cross-currency settlement, rather than abstract compute or generalized smart-contract functionality. Third, advisers like the token’s long history—4B+ transactions on XRPL with predictable settlement and fees—as evidence that this is not a fly-by-night chain.
For XRPI and XRPR, that “third path” positioning is important. It suggests that flows are coming from multiple buckets—retail traders who want XRP beta, institutional allocators who want regulated wrappers, and fintech users who see XRP as infrastructure rather than just a coin. As long as that mix persists, ETF demand has a chance to remain structurally positive rather than purely cyclical.

Short-Term Technicals: $1.88–$1.90 Support, $1.98 Resistance and the $2.00 Decision Line for XRP-USD

Near-term, XRP-USD is coiling in a narrow band with clear reference levels. Support is clustered around $1.88–$1.90, where recent dips have stabilized. A key technical barrier sits near the 100-day EMA around $1.98. A decisive push through that area followed by a clean break above $2.00 would confirm a short-term breakout.
If XRP-USD holds the $1.88–$1.90 base and clears the $2.00 ceiling, technicians are eyeing around $2.15 as the next magnet, implying roughly a 12–13% move from current $1.91 levels. If it fails and loses the $1.88 floor, the setup flips into a larger pullback scenario where ETF inflows are fighting against spot selling pressure rather than riding with it.
Because XRPI and XRPR are physically backed structures that track XRP-USD before fees, a 12–13% move in the coin normally translates into a similar magnitude in the ETFs. From $11.07, a move of that scale would put XRPI near $12.40–$12.50. From $15.76, XRPR would trade closer to $17.70–$17.80, assuming tracking remains tight and spreads stay contained.

Medium-Term Scenario Math: What $3 and $8 XRP-USD Mean for XRPI and XRPR

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick has flagged a potential $8 XRP-USD level in 2026, implying roughly 315% upside from today’s $1.91. A more conservative framework points to $3, or about 58% upside, driven by ETF adoption and incremental utility rather than full SWIFT-scale disruption.
Translating those scenarios into XRPI and XRPR gives concrete numbers. If XRP-USD climbs from $1.91 to $3.00 (about +58%), a proportional move would take XRPI from $11.07 to roughly $17.5, and XRPR from $15.76 to about $24.9, before fees and any tracking slippage. Under the aggressive $8 case—roughly 4.15x the current price—XRPI would conceptually scale toward $45–46, and XRPR toward $65–66, again assuming reasonably efficient replication.
Those numbers are not guarantees, but they frame the risk–reward. XRPI and XRPR today are essentially levered on whether XRP-USD can escape the $2.00 gravity well and move into a regime where ETF flows, lending yield, and payments adoption compound rather than fight each other.

Flow and Liquidity Microstructure: Why XRPI’s 561.9K Shares and XRPR’s 40.4K Shares Matter

XRPI trades around 561.9K shares on an average day, on a major U.S. exchange, with a tight bid–ask most of the time. That liquidity level can comfortably absorb RIA orders, small institutional tickets and active traders without severe slippage, especially when XRP-USD itself is putting up billions in daily volume. For investors, XRPI is the cleaner execution vehicle if you need to move size or rebalance frequently.
XRPR, with roughly 40.4K average daily volume, is a very different beast. Spreads can widen, and moderate orders can move the tape. That smaller float cuts both ways: on strong XRP-USD days, XRPR can overshoot to the upside; on weak days, exits can be painful. As a result, XRPR is more appropriate for investors explicitly seeking higher beta to XRP and willing to tolerate liquidity risk as part of the trade.
For both ETFs, the broader XRP ETF complex crossing $1.21B in AUM and $1.07B in net inflows within weeks of launch gives comfort that secondary-market depth is likely to keep improving as more market makers and arbitrage desks commit capital to the structure.

Macro and Correlation: XRP ETFs in a Late-Cycle, High-Risk Crypto Tape

Macro still sets the background. Bitcoin is hovering around the high $80Ks, equities are priced for aggressive 2026 easing with forecasts of the S&P 500 near 8,280, and risk assets across the board have rerated on expectations of QE, rate cuts and political incentives to keep markets stable into the U.S. midterms. In that environment, high-beta instruments like XRPI and XRPR are leveraged to two layers of risk: crypto-specific sentiment and the broader “risk-on” regime.
If the macro script holds—rate cuts arrive, liquidity expands, and speculative segments of the market outperform—then XRP-USD has a realistic path toward that $3 region, and XRPI/XRPR can deliver mid-double-digit or triple-digit percentage gains from current levels. If the script breaks—recession shock, policy error, or sharp de-risking—these ETFs will not be spared. The same leverage that boosts upside on ETF inflows will magnify drawdowns when flows reverse.

Risk Map: What Can Break the Bull Case for XRPI and XRPR

The first risk is purely technical. If XRP-USD fails repeatedly at $2.00 and then loses the $1.88–$1.90 support zone, the market will reprice from “consolidation before breakout” to “failed breakout and deeper correction.” In that case, XRPI can easily slide back toward its year low $10.44, and XRPR can retest levels only slightly above its $14.79 floor.
Second, ETF flows can flip. The current streak of zero outflow days and steady inflows is impressive, but not permanent. A few sessions of net redemptions—especially if triggered by negative XRP headlines or a broad crypto sell-off—would change the narrative quickly from “institutional accumulation” to “early buyers cashing out.”
Third, there is execution risk on the XRPL roadmap. If the lending protocol stalls in governance, suffers security issues, or fails to attract credible borrowers and lenders, the entire “institutional-grade yield” narrative weakens. Likewise, if RLUSD adoption disappoints and stablecoin flows consolidate further around competitors like USDC, the argument that XRPL will own a double-digit share of global payments becomes harder to defend.
Finally, regulatory risk is reduced but not eliminated. A change in political leadership, a shift in enforcement priorities, or new global rules on stablecoins and payment tokens could all impact the attractiveness of XRP ETFs. Investors in XRPI and XRPR are still exposed to the evolving regulatory perimeter around digital assets.

Final View on XRPI and XRPR: Speculative Buy with a Clear Line in the Sand

Pulling all the data together—XRPI at $11.07, XRPR at $15.76, XRP-USD pinned around $1.91 below the $2.00 decision line, over $1.21B in XRP ETF assets, roughly $1.07B in cumulative net inflows, the SEC case resolved, a Trump-era policy tailwind, and a lending protocol that could add yield to the story—the balance of evidence supports a bullish but explicitly speculative stance on both ETFs.
At current prices, XRPI and XRPR offer a clean way to express the view that XRP-USD can at least reach the more conservative $3 target in 2026, which would imply approximate moves toward $17.5 for XRPI and $24.9 for XRPR if tracking remains efficient. The more aggressive $8 scenario would push those numbers into the mid-$40s and mid-$60s, respectively, but that path requires not just ETF flows, but genuine payment and lending adoption that is not yet visible in the on-chain data.
Based strictly on the current numbers, XRPI and XRPR justify a Speculative Buy rating with a clear risk line around the $1.88–$1.90 XRP-USD zone. As long as XRP holds that support and ETF inflows remain positive, the asymmetry favors the upside. If XRP-USD loses that base and ETF flows turn negative, the thesis breaks and exposure to XRPI and XRPR should be reconsidered quickly.

That's TradingNEWS