XRP ETF Outlook: XRP-USD Steadies at $2.52 as XRPI and XRPR ETFs Ignite Institutional Momentum Before SEC Decision

Ripple XRP ETF Momentum Builds as XRP-USD Trades at $2.52 Amid SEC Progress and Institutional Surge in XRPI and XRPR ETFs

The Ripple ecosystem is regaining force as optimism around XRP-linked exchange-traded funds intensifies. XRP (XRP-USD) trades at $2.52 (+0.99%), consolidating its recovery from early-October weakness. Institutional flows into both the XRPI ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI), now at $14.91 (-1.13%), and the XRPR ETF (BATS:XRPR), priced at $20.57 (-1.39%), underline the growing conviction that U.S. regulators are nearing pivotal decisions on Ripple-based investment products.

Government Progress Clears Path for XRP ETF Approvals

Washington’s budget breakthrough, hinted at by presidential advisor Kevin Hassett, could unlock long-delayed decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on several pending XRP ETF applications. With the four-week shutdown nearing resolution, the SEC is expected to resume reviews for funds proposed by Grayscale, Bitwise, CoinShares, 21Shares, and WisdomTree. Industry data suggests the approval probability of an XRP ETF by year-end now stands at 99%, up from 87% earlier in October.

The upcoming October 22 closed-door roundtable between U.S. Senators and executives from Ripple, Coinbase, and Circle may further accelerate this timeline. Insiders confirm that the SEC has already finalized a generic listing standard, allowing simultaneous approval of multiple crypto ETFs that meet liquidity, custody, and surveillance benchmarks. This regulatory shift could enable XRP ETFs like XRPI and XRPR to debut within weeks rather than months, transforming institutional access to Ripple’s ecosystem.

Institutional Rotation Accelerates: XRPI and XRPR See Growing Demand

The launch anticipation has already triggered notable movements across existing Ripple-based ETFs. The XRPI ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) closed at $14.91, with intraday lows of $14.39 and a yearly range of $12.69–$23.53, trading 626K shares on Monday. Similarly, the XRPR ETF (BATS:XRPR) settled at $20.57, within a $20.01–$20.81 session range and a yearly band of $18.31–$25.99. Despite daily losses, both funds have sustained steady inflows since mid-September, with cumulative weekly creation of $38.7 million in new ETF units, primarily from U.S. institutional accounts seeking regulated XRP exposure.

These developments coincide with CoinShares’ latest report, which showed $73.88 million in net inflows to XRP investment products last week — the largest weekly gain among altcoin-based funds. With Grayscale and Bitwise already adjusting allocations to include XRP ahead of approval, traders interpret this as a signal that the SEC greenlight is imminent.

On-Chain Indicators Show Deep Accumulation and Reduced Selling Pressure

On-chain data supports the institutional narrative. According to CryptoQuant, large wallets began transferring XRP from exchanges to cold storage after October 11, reversing the earlier flow that marked profit-taking by whales. This shift coincides with Santiment’s sentiment index, which reached a nine-month pessimism low near $1.90, historically signaling market bottoms. Since then, XRP rebounded more than 32%, reclaiming the $2.50–$2.55 zone and indicating accumulation behavior consistent with institutional layering before an ETF-driven breakout.

Liquidity on Binance and Bitstamp has also improved, with daily traded volume rising 38% week-over-week, now averaging $3.4 billion. Funding rates on perpetual futures turned slightly positive (+0.007%), reflecting renewed long positioning by leveraged traders anticipating regulatory catalysts.

Market Reaction and Technical Setup for XRP-USD

While Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remains steady around $111,000, XRP’s relative strength has improved substantially. The token has climbed 4.7% week-to-date, outperforming both ETH-USD (+2.3%) and ADA-USD (+1.8%). The $2.48–$2.55 area has acted as a strong consolidation floor, with next technical resistance at $2.72 and $3.00, followed by the critical $3.84 all-time high first tested in 2018.

Momentum oscillators remain bullish: the 14-day RSI stands at 61, and MACD crossed into positive territory last Friday, signaling a potential continuation toward the $3.20–$3.40 band if ETF approvals proceed as expected. Derivative open interest on XRP futures rose 22% in a week, to $2.14 billion, led by institutional counterparties on CME and Binance Futures.

Regulatory Milestones and Political Dynamics

The XRP ETF’s regulatory momentum has also become a political talking point. Former U.S. economic advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed that moderate Democrats are cooperating on a reopening deal that would restore SEC operations this week. This development is vital as the agency must finalize legal reviews and backlogged 19b-4 filings before year-end.

Grayscale’s Chief Research Officer, Zach Pandl, revealed that the SEC’s new ETF framework now enables multi-asset batch approvals — meaning XRP could be greenlit alongside Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA). If executed, this could mark the first wave of simultaneous crypto ETF authorizations in U.S. history.

Market analysts believe such approval would officially reinforce XRP’s non-security status, granting it regulatory legitimacy that could unlock access to pension funds, family offices, and wealth managers currently restricted from direct crypto exposure.

Investor Sentiment and Global Market Positioning

XRP’s reputation as a cross-border payment leader gives it an institutional edge. Ripple’s partnerships across more than 50 countries — including Japan’s SBI Remit, Brazil’s Travelex Bank, and the UAE’s Lulu Exchange — enhance its utility narrative relative to speculative altcoins. The recent expansion of Ripple Payments into 70+ markets adds structural support for long-term value once regulated products like XRPI and XRPR ETFs go mainstream.

In Europe, CoinShares XRP ETP on the Swiss SIX Exchange logged a $156 million inflow last week, while Frankfurt-listed XRP ETN attracted another $42 million, suggesting synchronized global accumulation across institutional vehicles ahead of U.S. regulatory clearance.

Outlook for XRP ETFs and Price Projection

If the SEC resumes operations as expected and issues approvals between November and December 2025, XRP could see explosive revaluation. Analysts project a 40%–60% short-term upside, targeting $3.40–$3.60 in the spot market, followed by a potential medium-term move toward $5.00, contingent on ETF volume traction and sustained institutional demand.

The launch of XRPI and XRPR ETFs would further compress volatility, providing pricing efficiency and liquidity depth comparable to Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year. Institutional capital from pension and sovereign wealth funds could then flow into Ripple-linked assets for the first time in a regulated environment.

Verdict: Buy — XRP-USD and XRP ETFs (XRPI, XRPR) remain positioned for a structural breakout fueled by pending SEC approvals, whale accumulation, and broad institutional adoption. Once the U.S. government reopens and ETF decisions proceed, XRP may become the first altcoin to achieve full-scale regulatory integration into global capital markets.

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