XRP ETFs Crash as Whale Sell-Offs Slam XRP-USD Below $2 — XRPI and XRPR Face $411M in ETF Flows and Heavy Volatility

Ripple’s XRP ETFs Face Heavy Selling as XRP-USD Drops Below $2 and Whale Activity Intensifies

XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) and XRPR (BATS:XRPR) Lead Institutional Outflows as Market Volatility Surges

The XRPI ETF, listed on NASDAQ, closed at $11.44, down 2.76%, extending losses from its previous close at $11.76. Trading volume reached 626,860 shares, with a daily range of $11.08–$11.72, marking the ETF’s lowest level since listing. Its broader year range between $11.08–$23.53 reflects a decline of nearly 52% from the 2025 high.
Meanwhile, the XRPR ETF (BATS:XRPR) ended at $16.14, down from a prior close of $16.51, within a $15.62–$16.36 session range. Volume remained muted at 48,970 shares, underscoring weakening institutional momentum as both funds track the sharp correction in XRP-USD, which slid to $1.95, its lowest level since April.

Despite the debut of new institutional products like the Bitwise XRP ETF, which recorded $25 million in first-day turnover, sentiment across XRP-linked assets has turned negative as macro tightening and heavy whale selling dominate the market.

XRP-USD Slides to $1.95 Amid Whale Offloading of 190 Million Tokens

Blockchain data confirms that large holders offloaded roughly 190 million XRP, equivalent to nearly $370 million, over the past 48 hours. This surge in liquid supply triggered a rapid drawdown below the key $2.00 level.
The selling coincided with Bitcoin’s fall to $82,000, its lowest in seven months, leading to over $1.9 billion in crypto liquidations. The correlation between XRP-USD and BTC-USD remains high, amplifying XRP’s downside and reflecting systemic risk aversion across crypto ETFs and derivatives.

Whale tracking shows that the concentration of large wallets has decreased to 58.5% of total circulating supply in profit, the lowest ratio since early 2023. This indicates that over 41.5% of XRP holders—approximately 26.5 billion XRP—are currently underwater, heightening volatility as more investors exit to avoid further losses.

ETF Launch Momentum Fails to Stabilize Market as Institutional Flows Stay Mixed

The launch of the Bitwise XRP ETF and Canary Capital XRPC ETF was expected to bring stability and inflows to the asset class. On debut, Bitwise’s fund traded 1.14 million shares, equivalent to $25 million in turnover—well below the projected $90 million due to weak sentiment. Canary Capital’s XRPC maintains $268 million in assets under management, while combined XRP ETF inflows totaled $118 million on November 20, according to SoSoValue data.
Despite cumulative net assets reaching $385 million, the flows have not offset retail outflows or declining derivatives open interest, which dropped from $8.36 billion in October to $3.57 billion this week. Futures OI represents outstanding leveraged exposure, and such contraction typically indicates institutional deleveraging, not accumulation.

Even as the XRP ETF market capitalization expands across new issuers, the launches have acted as “sell-the-news” events, driving short-term traders to exit positions once ETFs became tradable.

Technical Breakdown Confirms Bearish Momentum Across XRP-USD and XRPI

Technically, XRP-USD broke below a multi-month descending triangle, confirming a structural breakdown below $2.00. The 50-day EMA ($2.16) remains below the 200-day EMA ($2.44), forming a persistent death cross that validates a prolonged bearish phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 23, deeply oversold, but still showing no divergence—implying that fear remains dominant without a reversal trigger.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has widened negatively, confirming downward momentum. On the 4-hour chart, XRP remains below all key EMAs (50, 100, 200), maintaining a bearish alignment. The next structural support lies at $1.90, followed by $1.61, the April low. Failure to hold these levels could expose $1.55 as the final downside target before potential accumulation resumes.

For XRPI, technical correlation remains above 0.89 relative to XRP-USD, indicating that ETF prices continue to mirror the token’s decline with limited deviation. The fund’s intraday low at $11.08 suggests strong psychological support near $11.00, but a decisive breach could open downside toward $10.60–$10.20, aligning with XRP’s projected floor near $1.80.

Derivative and Funding Markets Indicate High Volatility but Early Long Positioning

Despite collapsing prices, derivatives data suggest selective accumulation. The OI-weighted funding rate for XRP futures moved from –0.0006% to +0.0072%, implying traders are starting to reopen long positions at depressed levels. Historical trends show that such shifts often precede short-term recoveries, as over-leveraged short traders get squeezed once prices stabilize.

However, futures OI at $3.57 billion, compared to $10.94 billion in July, confirms that leverage has largely been flushed from the system, reducing both downside pressure and short-term upside potential. Traders continue to target $2.26–$2.33 as the key zone that must be reclaimed to neutralize the bearish setup.

Macro Pressure, Risk-Off Sentiment, and ETF Correlation Drive Broader Selloff

The correction in XRP ETFs parallels Bitcoin’s and Ethereum’s retracements, driven by tighter U.S. liquidity conditions. The Federal Reserve’s delay in rate-cut expectations from December 2025 to March 2026 has elevated yields, prompting institutional funds to rotate capital from high-volatility assets like crypto back into short-duration treasuries.
Additionally, tech equity weakness—Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) down 3.15%, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) off 7.44%, and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) losing 5%—has spilled into crypto-linked ETFs. Correlations between XRPI, BTC ETFs, and NVDA remain high at 0.71, indicating macro cross-pressure between AI equities and crypto products.

Long-Term Catalysts: XRP Ledger Staking and Regulatory Developments

Amid the downturn, Ripple Labs continues to push strategic developments aimed at institutional adoption. Plans to enable staking mechanisms on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could strengthen network security and introduce yield-based demand for XRP holders.
Regulatory progress also underpins long-term potential. The Basel crypto capital framework may soon reduce capital buffers for regulated banks holding digital assets. This change could encourage more banks to participate in XRP ETFs like XRPI and XRPR, broadening institutional exposure once volatility subsides.

Institutional Positioning: Grayscale and Bitwise Expand Market Access

On November 21, the NYSE Arca confirmed approval for Grayscale’s XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) and Dogecoin ETF (GDOG), both carrying a 0.35% management fee. Trading begins Monday, marking a new phase of mainstream accessibility. Grayscale’s move follows Bitwise’s $25 million debut, giving U.S. investors exposure to XRP via regulated vehicles.
Grayscale’s total crypto assets under management now exceed $35 billion, and its planned IPO signals institutional commitment to digital assets even amid short-term corrections.

Market Outlook and Investment View

The data across both XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) and XRPR (BATS:XRPR) ETFs confirm a deep short-term bearish environment driven by macro stress, whale distribution, and ETF arbitrage outflows. Technical and on-chain indicators align around the $1.90–$1.60 XRP zone as the next accumulation range.
ETF prices between $11.00–$11.50 for XRPI and $15.60–$16.00 for XRPR represent the first institutional entry zone for value-oriented buyers. With implied volatility and RSI in extreme conditions, capitulation appears near completion.

Verdict: Buy on Weakness.
While near-term downside to $1.61 for XRP-USD remains possible, risk/reward is turning favorable. Both XRPI and XRPR ETFs provide asymmetric upside exposure for institutions once ETF flows stabilize and macro liquidity improves. Short-term traders should expect volatility to persist, but medium-term investors may view current levels as the foundation for recovery toward $2.40–$2.70 XRP, $13.50 XRPI, and $18.50 XRPR in early 2026.

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