XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds $2 As ETFs Soak Up $954M, Set A Target Range From $1.80 To $10

XRP-USD At $2.00: Dual Market, Heavy Flows, Bearish Tape

XRP-USD Price Volume And Market Structure

XRP-USD trades around $2.00, roughly 2–4% lower on the day, with the last range you gave sitting between about $1.98 and $2.10. Market cap is near $120B, with around $4.1–4.2B in 24h volume, so liquidity is deep but clearly controlled by sellers. Over the past month, price has fallen roughly 20% from the $3.10 area and is now pinned just above the $1.95–$1.98 support band and the major $1.80 demand zone. Every push into the $2.05–$2.10 pocket is being sold into, and the latest hourly candles are red with strong downside momentum, showing that short-term money is not willing to hold risk above the psychological $2.00 line.

XRP-USD ETF Inflows Versus Derivatives Selling

The ETF side of XRP-USD is extremely strong. Across four XRP ETF products, there have been about 18 consecutive trading days of net inflows, roughly $954M in total, and not a single outflow day since launch. That is a clean inflow streak that Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs do not have right now. These flows are coming from “off-chain holders” in the Ripple CEO’s language: retirement accounts, multi-asset portfolios, advisers running models, and retail using normal brokers. They buy XRP-USD the way they buy an S&P 500 ETF, via custodial wrappers and tax-advantaged accounts, and they rarely trade around headlines. At the same time, derivatives data show a completely different behavior. On a major perp venue, the Taker Sell Ratio around 0.53 signals persistent market sells, meaning traders are hitting the bid. Futures open interest has collapsed from roughly 1.7B XRP in early October to about 0.7B XRP, a 59% deleveraging, and the 7-day funding rate has compressed from about 0.01% to around 0.001%, which is a clear sign that speculative long appetite has drained. Put together, the nearly $1B ETF bid is functioning more as a buffer than a launchpad: passive ETF inflows are quietly absorbing coins while crypto-native traders exit or short every bounce.

On-Chain XRP Ledger Activity And Fee Collapse For XRP

On the XRP Ledger (XRPL), the picture you supplied is one of high activity but low economic weight per transaction. Network velocity hit roughly 0.0324 on Dec 2, the highest level of the year, which means XRP is moving quickly between wallets. Yet total daily XRPL fees have collapsed by about 89%, from around 5,900 XRP per day in February to roughly 650 XRP now. That combination usually means that a lot of the flow is coming from liquidity providers, AMMs, internal exchange movements, and arbitrage, not from expensive, high-value settlement. The key takeaway is that XRP-USD price discovery is no longer primarily driven on-chain. The ledger is busy, but the marginal price is now being set by ETF creations and redemptions plus centralized derivatives, while XRPL mostly provides plumbing for liquidity and exchange operations.

Daily Technical Structure Of XRP-USD From 3.10 To The 1.80 Zone

Technically, XRP-USD is still in a clean corrective structure. On the USDT daily chart, price has respected a descending channel since August. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages cluster near $2.60, clearly overhead and acting as a medium-term cap. A strong rejection just under $2.40 at the upper channel boundary confirmed that sellers still control the structure. From the $3.10 peak, price has effectively formed a descending triangle / distribution pattern, with horizontal support around $1.95–$1.98 and a series of lower highs pressing from above. The oscillators you gave are fully aligned with that: RSI near 39.7 is below 50 and points to bearish momentum; Stochastic around 22.8 is slipping into oversold without a clear reversal; CCI is deeply negative in three-digit territory; momentum at roughly −0.04271 and MACD (12,26) around −0.05954 both confirm a grinding downtrend rather than capitulation. Short-term moving averages reinforce the ceiling. The 10-period EMA near $2.06 and the 10-period SMA near $2.07 already sit above spot, and the major EMAs and SMAs up to the 200-day are stacked overhead like a resistance ladder. The critical levels from this structure are support at $1.95–$1.98, major demand at $1.80, deeper supports near $1.50 and $1.20 if $1.80 fails, and resistance at $2.05–$2.10, then $2.25–$2.30, the MA cluster near $2.60, and a breakout pivot around $2.70. Until XRP-USD closes decisively back above $2.07–$2.10 with real volume, the dominant daily trend remains down.

XRP-BTC Pair And Relative Performance Versus Bitcoin

Against Bitcoin, XRP is weaker. The XRP/BTC pair has already broken down from an ascending channel that was previously forming higher lows. The break under 2,400 sats destroyed that constructive pattern. Price now trades around 2,230 sats, with both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages near 2,400 sats acting as firm resistance. The next solid support area sits around 2,000 sats. Practically, that means XRP-USD can hold the $2.00 zone and still underperform BTC if Bitcoin continues to trade strong. A real shift in relative strength only comes if XRP/BTC can reclaim and hold 2,400 sats; until then, XRP is structurally a laggard versus BTC.

Macro Backdrop Fed Cuts ETF Demand And The 8 To 10 Zone For XRP-USD

Macro conditions matter for XRP-USD because the flows you highlighted are ETF-driven. The Fed is now clearly in a rate-cutting regime, which lowers discount rates and supports risk assets. That environment encourages allocations into high-volatility exposures like XRP via regulated wrappers. One of the analyses you gave notes that while XRP-USD has been consolidating around $2, trading volume, number of holding addresses and institutional wallet activity are all increasing. Price has also been described as having formed a key bottom, with $2.70 identified as a major resistance. A sustained break of $2.70 on volume is flagged as the point where the next psychological layer between roughly $8.20 and $10.00 becomes realistic over time. That projection assumes ETF inflows remain strong, regulation does not block access, and the broader crypto cycle stays constructive. Today, none of that is triggered; price is stuck in a $1.95–$2.30 band. But structurally, the combination of accommodative policy, steady ETF allocations and a $2 base gives XRP-USD an asymmetric upside profile if the technicals flip.

Regulatory Infrastructure And Bank Intermediation Around XRP-USD

You also added fresh regulatory color about U.S. banks and crypto trading. The OCC has confirmed that national banks may engage in riskless principal crypto transactions, where they simultaneously take both sides of an offsetting client trade without holding crypto inventory, facing mainly settlement and limited credit risk. The activity is treated as technology-neutral and aligned with their existing roles in securities and derivatives. For XRP-USD, this is important because it lowers friction for large regulated institutions to intermediate crypto order flow. It complements the ETF channel: banks can process orders, brokers can route allocations and end investors can hold XRP exposure inside fully regulated accounts without ever touching an exchange directly. Combined with the existing permissions for custody, stablecoin-related services and fee handling on blockchains, this infrastructure supports expansion of the very “off-chain holder” base that is already pushing almost $1B into XRP ETFs. Structurally, it is a tailwind for long-term capital participation in XRP even if the short-term chart is under pressure.

Scenario Map For XRP-USD Levels Risks And Triggers Into 2026

Using only the levels and scenarios in the material you provided, the bearish path for XRP-USD is straightforward. If price loses $1.95 on a daily close with clear volume and starts to hold below $2.00, that psychological line flips into resistance. In that case, price is naturally pulled towards the $1.80 demand zone. If ETF inflows slow from the current roughly $954M track and derivatives traders keep leaning short, a test of the $1.50 region becomes realistic, with a deeper flush toward $1.20 if selling accelerates. The constructive path is the mirror image. If XRP-USD can hold $1.95–$2.00 on repeated daily closes while ETF inflows remain positive, then flip $2.05–$2.10 from resistance into support, the tape begins to look more balanced. A push through $2.25–$2.30 opens a run at the MA cluster near $2.60, and a clean break and hold above $2.70 is the trigger that aligns with upside projections toward $2.85 first and then the wider $8.20–$10.00 band if macro and flows line up. For 2026, the projections you gave range from roughly $1.02 on the conservative side to around $4.78 on the optimistic side, with social-media fantasies of $15 or $1,000 implying market caps that are disconnected from any plausible capital flow scenario. Serious trading decisions should focus on the realistic band, not the extremes.

Straight Verdict On XRP-USD Bias And Rating

Bringing all your data together, XRP-USD sits around $2.00, just above $1.95–$1.98 support and the crucial $1.80 demand band, with nearly $954M of ETF inflows and no outflows, against a backdrop of heavy derivatives deleveraging, a 0.53 Taker Sell Ratio, a 59% collapse in open interest and compressed funding. The daily chart is still in a descending structure with all major moving averages above price, while macro and regulation clearly favor deeper institutional participation. On that basis, the honest stance is simple: XRP-USD is a HOLD with a short-term bearish bias and a long-term asymmetric upside profile, conditional on $1.80 holding and $2.70 eventually breaking.

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