XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD $1.86 Holds as ETF Money Fights 6-Month Selloff

XRP-USD Near $1.86: ETF Demand, Capitulation Risk and Extreme Long-Term Calls

XRP Price Snapshot Around $1.85–$1.86

XRP (XRP-USD) trades in the mid-$1.80s on 24 December 2025. Across major feeds, price holds around $1.85–$1.86 with an intraday band near $1.84–$1.88 and 24-hour turnover of roughly $2.0–$2.1 billion. Market value sits near $110–$113 billion, keeping XRP in the top tier by capitalization. Structurally, the token is pinned between visible support at $1.80–$1.85 and short-term selling pressure near $1.90–$1.96 after dropping almost 50% from July highs and roughly 45% from the latest peak. This is a late-cycle digestion phase, not a fresh breakout.

Spot XRP ETFs: Strong Inflows While Price Bleeds Lower

The key structural shift around XRP-USD in 2025 is the ETF complex. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have accumulated roughly $1.1–$1.25 billion of net inflows since launch with no meaningful outflow days. Daily prints recently included about $8 million of net buying on 23 December and a separate spike of roughly $44 million earlier in the week. Combined AUM now exceeds $1.2 billion, with the largest fund holding in the mid-$300 million range. That creates a clear contrast: XRP is down about 7% year-to-date, yet regulated vehicles keep absorbing demand. Because ETF creation relies on intermediaries and structured liquidity, flows do not always translate into immediate spot buying, but directionally institutions are adding XRP exposure while the spot market corrects.

Capitulation Behaviour: Realized Losses and Fading Ledger Activity

On-chain and network metrics confirm stress rather than complacency. Realized profit and loss data for XRP-USD show accelerated selling into weakness during Q4 2025, with holders exiting at a loss instead of sitting through the drawdown. That is a departure from earlier cycles when large-cap investors tended to ride deep dips. Monthly active transacting addresses on the XRP Ledger have fallen to roughly 34,000, the lowest level in months, signalling reduced participation from both retail and institutional users on-chain. The combination of forced loss-taking and shrinking base-layer activity is typical of a late-stage shake-out after a two-year run of +81% (2023) and +238% (2024).

Sentiment Extreme: From Fear Zone to a $1,000 XRP Narrative

Social and commentary data around XRP-USD have turned distinctly negative. Bearish mentions, doubts about decentralization, criticism of token utility and concerns over Ripple’s influence sit roughly 20–30% above November averages. That places XRP in a “fear zone” even though it remains a top-five asset by market cap. In parallel, an outlier narrative from YoungHoon Kim, who brands himself as the “world’s smartest man” with a claimed IQ of 276, projects XRP-USD near $1,000 over ten years under extreme macro conditions: large-scale capital migration into crypto, deep dollar debasement and sustained high inflation. He also flagged a possible cycle peak around January 2026 and a potential Christmas rally. Mathematically such paths can be drawn, but they require an aggressive macro reset and long-term dominance of XRP over competing payment rails. In practice, his call is best treated as a sentiment marker: even with price 45% below highs and mood depressed, ultra-bullish pockets still exist.

Whale Dynamics: 65M XRP Ripple-Linked Transfer and Market Interpretation

Recent whale flows added fuel to short-term volatility. A 65 million XRP transfer, worth roughly $120 million at current prices, moved from a Ripple-linked address to an unknown wallet. The source being associated with Ripple and the destination unlabeled allows multiple reads. A bearish interpretation assumes potential inventory preparation for future selling; a neutral interpretation treats it as internal treasury management, partner funding or liquidity provisioning. Because the receiving address is not clearly identified as an exchange wallet, there is no hard proof of imminent dumping. However, in a thin holiday market already on edge, such transfers are enough to tighten stops, trigger deleveraging and reinforce the perception of overhead supply.

Technical Structure: Descending Triangle, Death Cross and Key Bands

Technically, XRP-USD trades in a clear downtrend. Since July, price has formed a lower-high, lower-low sequence and now oscillates in a $1.80–$1.95 band near an eight-month low. The weekly chart shows more red candles than green since the last all-time high, confirming persistent selling into rallies. A descending triangle has formed with horizontal support initially around $1.88 and now stress-tested near $1.85. Moving-average structure is bearish: price sits below the 50-day simple moving average, while the 10-day and 20-day EMAs cap rebounds, and a death cross in the EMA stack confirms trend deterioration. Support zones cluster at $1.85, $1.80, $1.75 and deeper near $1.60, with some models flagging $1.43 as a downside extension if the pattern fully breaks. Resistance zones sit around $1.88–$1.90, $1.95–$1.96 and then $2.00 with follow-through targets at $2.10 and $2.22. For now the market is treating XRP-USD as a range asset: rallies into $1.90 are being sold rather than chased.

Range, Breakdown or Reclaim: Medium-Term Price Scenarios

From this setup, the medium-term behaviour of XRP-USD depends on how price reacts around $1.80 support and the $1.90–$1.96 ceiling. In a base-case scenario, $1.80–$1.85 holds, but repeated failures below $1.96 keep the token trapped in a sideways range. ETF inflows continue building a structural base, while realized losses gradually ease as weaker hands exit. Volatility compresses and price spends more time below $2 than above it. In a bearish scenario, a decisive break of $1.80 with strong volume resolves the descending triangle lower, opening the path toward $1.75, $1.60 and potentially the $1.40s. That would fully reset positioning after the 2023–2024 surge and force a deeper repricing despite ongoing institutional interest. In a bullish scenario, XRP-USD clears $1.96 on a daily close with expanding volume, reclaims $2.00 and holds that level. That would squeeze short-term shorts, drag sidelined capital back in and put $2.10–$2.22 back in play. Kim’s January-2026 peak and Christmas rally narrative sit inside that upside path but depend entirely on this reclaim; without it they remain noise, not signal.

Cycle Context: From Legal Overhang to Institutional Rails

The late-2025 backdrop for XRP-USD is very different from earlier cycles. The SEC civil case overhang has been largely resolved, with Ripple paying a nine-figure penalty and operating under a clearer framework. Ripple has moved forward on institutional rails, securing conditional U.S. trust charter approvals and raising fresh capital at a roughly $40 billion valuation. Spot ETFs now provide regulated exposure channels. The core question is no longer whether XRP survives but what price compensates for its risk relative to other large-caps. That is why the split between ETF inflows and spot drawdown matters: if structural demand continues while price grinds lower, the eventual reversal can be sharp; if flows stall while realized losses and network weakness persist, the market will treat the 2023–2024 phase as a completed cycle and demand a lower base before re-rating.

Investment Stance on XRP-USD: High-Risk Buy on Weakness, Not a Defensive Hold

At roughly $1.85–$1.86, after a near-50% slide from mid-year highs, XRP-USD offers an asymmetric but high-risk setup. Structural positives include regulatory clarity, functioning institutional rails and consistent ETF inflows above $1.1–$1.2 billion. Negatives include a six-month downtrend, a descending triangle hovering above $1.80, a bearish moving-average stack, realized losses, shrinking on-chain activity and heavily negative sentiment. Taken together, this is not a safe Hold and not an obvious Sell. It is a speculative Buy on weakness for investors willing to absorb volatility and size positions accordingly. Aggressive accumulators can justify staggered entry between $1.80 and $1.60, with a clean break of $1.60 as the line that invalidates the current structure and forces a reassessment. Short-term traders should continue to treat $1.90–$1.96 as the pivot: as long as XRP-USD fails there, it remains a range trade. A sustained move and close above $2.00 is the confirmation that the downside phase has likely exhausted and that upside toward $2.22 and beyond is back on the table. The $1,000 projection is an extreme macro tail scenario; the real decision today is whether the current $1.80–$1.90 zone compensates for the drawdown risk toward the low-$1 area. Under current data, the answer is yes, but only for capital allocated with explicit acceptance of high drawdown risk.

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