XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Drops to $1.87 as Whale Dumps $721M While XRP ETFs Quietly Cross $1B

XRP-USD Price, Range and Market Context on 16 December 2025

Legal Overhang Removed and the New Structural Setup for XRP-USD

XRP-USD is trading in the roughly 1.87–1.94 dollar zone on 16 December 2025, back to price levels last seen in April 2025 after failing to hold the psychologically important 2.00 dollar handle. Intraday, XRP-USD broke decisively below the 1.93 dollar support band, printed lows around 1.87–1.88 dollars, and is now oscillating just underneath that former floor, which has flipped into short-term resistance. The break was not a low-liquidity accident: trading volume spiked to about two and a half times the recent twenty-four-hour average as price sliced through 1.93 dollars, which implies real size from larger players, not only noise from small accounts. The move is unfolding with Bitcoin trading roughly in the 85,000–87,000 dollar region, Ethereum around 2,900–2,930 dollars and total crypto market capitalization down close to 3.9 percent toward about 2.93 trillion dollars. XRP-USD is being repriced inside a broad risk-off phase rather than on an isolated negative headline. The structural backdrop, however, is the strongest it has been in years. Ripple’s drawn-out confrontation with the US Securities and Exchange Commission ended in May 2025 with a settlement that confirmed XRP traded on public exchanges is not a security. That regulatory clarity triggered a one-day volume spike above 200 percent to roughly 12.4 billion dollars in spot trading and helped XRP-USD rally toward about 3.65 dollars in July 2025 at the local high. The legal overhang that suppressed valuations for years has been removed, and the entire market structure around XRP-USD has been rebuilt on that new basis.

Institutional Infrastructure, Spot ETFs and the Flow–Price Disconnect in XRP-USD

Post-settlement, US markets approved the first spot XRP exchange-traded funds in the fourth quarter of 2025, and these products have become the backbone of institutional access to XRP-USD. Several large issuers listed XRP vehicles and, within weeks, cumulative net inflows into spot XRP ETFs reached roughly 1.0–1.12 billion dollars. These funds now represent close to 0.98 percent of XRP’s total market capitalization and have recorded a rare streak of more than twenty consecutive trading days of net inflows with no outflow day during that stretch. At the same time, XRP-USD has dropped roughly seventeen percent across the same window and has broken back below 2.00 dollars. The explanation is straightforward. While ETF inflows are material, they are not yet overpowering selling pressure in spot and derivatives. Taker buy–sell data in XRP futures has been persistently skewed toward sells, which means most aggressive market orders have been hitting the bid rather than lifting the offer. Buy-side futures volume has collapsed from more than 5.8 billion dollars during the summer rally to roughly 250 million dollars now, a drawdown of around 96 percent in active buying power. The result is that slow, methodical accumulation through ETFs and long-only mandates is being outweighed, in the short term, by deleveraging and risk reduction in trading accounts, so XRP-USD trades heavy despite the institutional sponsorship.

Fundamental Drivers: Banking Licenses, Stablecoin Scale and Real-World Usage of XRP-USD

Behind the price, the fundamental picture around XRP-USD has strengthened materially through 2025. Ripple obtained conditional approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a federal trust charter, placing the firm on a regulatory footing comparable to high-grade financial institutions and opening the door to custody and settlement services that can explicitly rely on XRP-USD. A Swiss-regulated bank has gone live with Ripple’s licensed payment product, using XRP rails to execute near–real-time cross-border transactions. Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, with a scale in the area of 1.3 billion dollars, has expanded from the native XRP Ledger to major Ethereum Layer-2 ecosystems such as Optimism and Base and to other environments via cross-chain bridges. Institutional custody players are adding wrapped XRP (wXRP) on Ethereum, Solana and additional chains, which pushes XRP-USD further into DeFi and on-chain liquidity venues outside its own ledger. RippleNet now connects hundreds of financial institutions worldwide, and several central banks are piloting CBDCs on Ripple’s infrastructure, with XRP-USD positioned as a liquidity and settlement asset inside that stack. In other words, XRP-USD currently combines clear regulatory status, live banking integrations, a growing stablecoin and tokenization layer and genuine payment utility, which is rare among large-cap crypto assets.

Large Holder Distribution: The 721.5 Million Dollar Profit Event and Realized Gains Pressure

The most visible direct hit to XRP-USD in recent days came from long-term wallets crystallizing massive gains into a fragile order book. A nearly seven-year-old address that accumulated XRP at approximately 0.40 dollars realized more than 721.5 million dollars in profit at prices around 2.00 dollars. On-chain realized profit across the XRP network has surged roughly 240 percent since September, climbing from about 65 million dollars a day to almost 220 million dollars even as spot price has been grinding lower. This marks a change in behavior. In previous cycles, long-term holders typically distributed into vertical upside when liquidity was abundant and sentiment euphoric. The current pattern shows early entrants selling into a weakening tape to protect balance sheets and lock in multi-fold gains after the post-SEC and post-ETF rally. Because many recent buyers are sitting with cost bases in the 2.20–3.00 dollar region, there is little natural dip-buying demand at current levels to absorb this supply efficiently. Every additional block of long-term profit taking therefore pushes XRP-USD to new local lows, and that overhang remains a central component of the short-term bearish pressure.

Derivatives Structure: Leverage Reset, Futures Flows and the Impact on XRP-USD

The derivatives layer around XRP-USD has shifted from exuberance to austerity. Binance’s estimated leverage ratio for XRP has fallen toward about 0.18, one of the lowest readings for this cycle and a sharp reset from the high-leverage conditions that accompanied the advance above 3.00 dollars. A lower estimated leverage ratio means a larger share of open interest is funded by real collateral instead of borrowed funds, which reduces the probability of forced liquidations. At the same time, taker buy volume in XRP futures has crashed from more than 5.8 billion dollars at the summer peak to roughly 250 million dollars now, confirming that speculative demand on the long side has largely stepped away. The taker buy/sell ratio has remained below parity for most of this period, which indicates that sell-side aggression dominates in the order book. Structurally, this reset is positive for long-term market health because it lowers the odds of disorderly liquidation cascades. In the short term, however, it means there is far less speculative fuel available to drive rapid upside squeezes. Combined with shrinking altcoin volumes and a concentration of liquidity back into Bitcoin, this low-leverage, low-demand setup keeps XRP-USD in a mechanically heavy state even when news is favorable.

Technical Structure of XRP-USD: Trend, Moving Averages and Price Zones

From a chart perspective, XRP-USD remains in a clear corrective phase. On the dollar pair, price is moving inside a steep descending channel with a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The latest leg has pushed XRP-USD below 1.90 dollars and closer to the lower boundary of this channel. Both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are sloping downward and sit far overhead near the 2.50 dollar region, confirming that the prior uptrend has been fully broken. A death cross, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, has already been confirmed and visually captures the shift from post-lawsuit euphoria to medium-term pressure. Key horizontal levels now matter more than narrative. The 1.93 dollar zone, which previously acted as strong support, is now the first major resistance. A daily close back above that level would be the minimum requirement to neutralize the latest breakdown. The 1.88 dollar band is the short-term pivot; holding above it keeps the selling controlled, while sustained trading below it leaves bears firmly in charge. The 1.85 dollar region is the next area where buyers are likely to attempt stabilization, and if that level fails, the market will start targeting 1.75–1.80 dollars, then roughly 1.50 dollars and the earlier-year low near 1.61 dollars. On the upside, 2.10–2.11 dollars is the first meaningful resistance; a break would be the earliest signal that bulls are regaining any real control. The 2.20 dollar area represents the lower end of the failed November range, while 2.50 dollars is the pivot that probably has to be recaptured to end the entire multi-month downtrend and reopen a credible path toward the 3.00 dollar region. Momentum indicators are consistent with this picture. XRP-USD trades well below its 50-day simple moving average around 2.24 dollars and the 200-day simple moving average around 2.58 dollars, and the 14-day relative strength index is near 35, which is closer to oversold than overbought but not yet signaling a washout. There is still no convincing bullish divergence on the major oscillators, so the current structure is best described as a downtrend resting temporarily on fragile support.

Relative Performance: XRP-USD Versus Bitcoin and the BTC Pair Signal

On the Bitcoin pair, XRP has been even weaker than on the dollar chart. The XRP/BTC rate is trading around 2,170 satoshis after breaking down from a rising wedge pattern that formed through October and November. Price now sits below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which cluster around 2,400 satoshis, and there are no strong reversal signals yet from momentum indicators. The next substantial demand zone sits near 2,000 satoshis, where XRP previously bottomed earlier this year. Unless buyers can quickly reclaim the 2,400 satoshi region, XRP is likely to continue underperforming Bitcoin into year-end. This matters for XRP-USD because when capital rotates toward Bitcoin dominance, altcoins like XRP require disproportionately strong idiosyncratic catalysts just to stand still in dollar terms. In the current configuration, XRP-USD is fighting both its own technical downtrend and a relative performance headwind versus the market’s benchmark asset.

Macro Backdrop: Risk-Off Flows and the Position of XRP-USD on the Risk Curve

The macro environment is amplifying the downside in XRP-USD. Global markets are in a cautious stance ahead of key US jobs data and multiple central bank meetings that will influence expectations for the rate path into 2026. Equity futures for indices such as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are negative, European indices are mixed to weaker and oil prices are sliding, with Brent around 60 dollars and WTI near 56 dollars as traders weigh the possibility of a supply overhang and softer demand. Crypto markets have recently digested roughly 600 million dollars in liquidations across major assets, with about 14–15 million dollars in XRP liquidations, mostly on the long side. In this environment, high-beta assets suffer more. XRP-USD behaves like leveraged risk rather than a defensive instrument: when investors de-risk, capital flows back toward Bitcoin and sometimes Ethereum, leaving altcoins exposed. That is why strong headlines around legal clarity, banking integrations or ETF growth are not enough on their own to force sustained upside while the broader macro regime remains risk-off.

Forward Ranges and Scenario Bands for XRP-USD Into 2026

Serious projections for XRP-USD focus on realistic bands rather than the extreme numbers pushed by social media. Into the very end of 2025, a plausible upside corridor sits roughly between 2.20 and 3.00 dollars if sentiment stabilizes and no new shock hits, while the downside remains open toward 1.75–1.90 dollars if support breaks again. A straight move to 5.00 dollars or more in the remaining weeks of the year would require a complete regime change in macro, flows and leverage that is not visible in current data. For the first quarter of 2026, a central scenario for XRP-USD is a 3.00–4.50 dollar range provided macro is no worse than today, the 1.75–1.90 dollar floor survives and ETF inflows keep building and begin to influence spot more visibly. A constructive scenario in the 4.50–6.00 dollar band depends on a strong risk-on environment, further institutional adoption headlines and a decisive technical reversal above 2.50 dollars. A defensive band between 2.20 and 3.00 dollars remains likely if macro stays mixed, liquidity remains concentrated in Bitcoin and altcoin investors continue to wait for clearer signals before re-leveraging. Multi-year institutional outlooks still see room for much larger moves, with some bank and research desks suggesting that 8–13 dollars per XRP-USD in the 2026–2028 window is achievable if regulatory stability persists, Ripple’s payment infrastructure scales through the banking system, XRP ETF assets under management keep compounding and the next crypto cycle turns risk-on. At current prices near 2.00 dollars, a move to 10.00 dollars implies roughly a fivefold increase and a market capitalization around 580 billion dollars, which is only realistic on a multi-year horizon and in a supportive global risk environment.

Sentiment, Positioning and the Split Between Institutional and Retail in XRP-USD

Sentiment and positioning data show a stark split between institutional behavior and retail psychology in XRP-USD. A major on-chain analytics sentiment gauge for crypto has dropped to zero, matching the most bearish readings since early 2022 and signaling a risk-averse phase across digital assets. Retail enthusiasm around XRP is muted compared to past cycles; social activity is lower, many smaller investors were wiped out or heavily damaged by the October altcoin liquidation wave and a significant part of the retail base is now on the sidelines. In contrast, institutional demand has been consistent. Spot XRP ETFs have logged around a month of uninterrupted net inflows approaching 975 million dollars while Bitcoin and Ethereum funds experienced net outflows in the same window. Institutional ownership via ETFs and related structures is approaching one percent of XRP’s total market capitalization and continues to grow methodically. Daily spot volumes in XRP-USD remain in the multi-billion dollar range, indicating that liquidity is intact even if the marginal buyer is cautious. This configuration is typical for mid-cycle corrections in high-beta assets where strong hands quietly accumulate while weak hands de-risk. It does not guarantee upside, but it shows that XRP-USD is being repositioned rather than abandoned.

Conditions Required for XRP-USD to Shift Back Into a Bullish Regime

For XRP-USD to exit its corrective structure and rebuild a bullish trend, several conditions must align across on-chain data, technicals and macro. On-chain, realized profit from long-term holders needs to normalize downward to remove the persistent supply overhang, and derivatives flows must rebalance so that taker buy/sell ratios move back toward or above one, showing that aggressive buyers are willing to commit capital again. Futures buy volume must recover from the current trough near 250 million dollars toward multi-billion levels to support sustained upside. Technically, the support region between 1.75 and 1.90 dollars has to hold during any further downside probe. A clean loss of that band would open a move toward 1.50 and potentially 1.00 dollars and extend the bear phase. On the upside, price needs to reclaim 1.93 dollars and then break through 2.10–2.20 dollars with strong volume, converting these zones back into support. A sustained break above 2.50 dollars, accompanied by flattening and then rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages, would be the clearest sign that the medium-term downtrend is finished. On the macro side, global risk sentiment has to improve, which most likely requires a clearer rate-cut trajectory, more predictable inflation and a less stressed environment in equities and credit. Bitcoin dominance also needs to stop grinding higher so that altcoins like XRP-USD can capture incremental liquidity rather than continually losing capital to the benchmark. Only when these elements begin to shift together will XRP-USD have the conditions to move from a high-risk corrective asset back into a sustained bullish trend.

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