XRP (XRP-USD) Trades at $2.45 as Fed Cut, Trump–Xi Deal, and Profit-Taking Trigger Market Reversal
XRP (XRP-USD) is trading at $2.45, down over 7% in the past 24 hours, as the market reacts to a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, followed by cautious commentary from Chair Jerome Powell that dampened optimism for further monetary easing. Despite expectations of sustained liquidity support, Powell’s warning that “a December cut is not a foregone conclusion” cooled risk sentiment across crypto markets. The result was a synchronized decline across major tokens — with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slipping below $111,000, Ethereum (ETH-USD) at $3,761, and XRP retreating sharply from last week’s $2.65 resistance. Adding to the volatility, optimism around a new Trump–Xi trade agreement faded quickly, shifting traders toward defensive positioning amid weaker derivatives activity and declining open interest.
Fed Policy Turns Hawkish Despite Cut, Triggering Risk-Off Reversal in XRP Markets
The Federal Reserve’s cut to 3.75–4.00% was initially perceived as supportive for digital assets, but Powell’s emphasis on “data dependency” signaled policy caution rather than a dovish pivot. This ambiguity sparked a wave of profit-taking across XRP markets, erasing post-announcement gains within hours. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded, tightening financial conditions and driving capital back into Treasuries, while crypto markets experienced rapid deleveraging. XRP futures open interest (OI) dropped to $4.37 billion, down 41% from $7.43 billion on October 1, reflecting risk aversion among leveraged traders. Though OI has recovered modestly from a monthly low of $3.49 billion, participation remains subdued relative to July’s highs, when XRP hit its record of $3.66.
Trump–Xi Trade Truce Fails to Sustain Risk Rally as Tariff Cuts Disappoint Markets
U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea initially fueled optimism across global markets. The announcement of a 10% tariff cut to 47% from 57%, along with renewed soybean exports and relaxed controls on rare-earth metals, temporarily lifted investor sentiment. However, the rally quickly faded as markets questioned the economic depth of the agreement. The deal’s one-year duration and limited structural impact on trade flow offered little long-term clarity. In crypto, the muted reaction underscored skepticism that geopolitical easing would materially alter liquidity conditions. XRP, like broader altcoins, retraced its early bounce and settled below $2.50, highlighting how macro relief was overshadowed by the Fed’s hawkish tone and broader dollar strength.
Technical Breakdown: XRP Falls Below Key Moving Averages as RSI Turns Bearish
Technically, XRP is in a fragile structure, consolidating below critical moving averages — the 200-day EMA at $2.60, the 50-day EMA at $2.67, and the 100-day EMA at $2.72. These thresholds now act as layered resistance, reinforcing the dominance of sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 43, confirming bearish momentum. If the RSI continues to fall below 40, a sharper correction toward $2.18 — last tested on October 17 — becomes likely. However, a decisive daily close above $2.50 could reverse sentiment, supported by a still-active MACD buy signal that has persisted since last Friday. Technical analysts note that the next confirmation of strength would require a breakout above $2.60, followed by reclaiming $2.72, a zone aligning with the neckline of XRP’s longer-term bullish reversal pattern.
Derivatives Market Weakens as Leverage Unwinds and Futures Liquidity Shrinks
The drop in open interest signals more than short-term caution — it reflects structural repositioning among institutional participants. Liquidity on major exchanges like Binance and Bybit has thinned, with total XRP derivatives volume sliding 23% week-over-week. This reflects the broader deleveraging trend following Powell’s remarks and the Trump–Xi summit. The funding rate on perpetual swaps turned negative for the first time in two weeks, indicating bearish positioning dominance. Traders remain wary after last quarter’s volatility spike, which saw XRP’s OI-to-volume ratio peak at 0.19, a level often associated with overheating markets. For now, speculative interest has cooled, but underlying spot demand remains resilient, with daily XRPL transactions up 9% this quarter and active addresses rising 15%, suggesting accumulation despite short-term volatility.
XRPL Fundamentals Strengthen Amid Expanding Institutional and Regulatory Momentum
Beyond price action, XRP’s underlying ecosystem continues to gain credibility. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) recorded sustained network activity, with RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar-backed stablecoin, adding liquidity to on-chain settlement channels. This integration bridges XRP with broader fiat infrastructure, reinforcing its role as a neutral settlement asset in institutional payments. Ripple’s increasing visibility — including its involvement in digital asset policy discussions at the White House — signals deeper engagement with regulatory and governmental frameworks. These developments strengthen investor confidence, particularly as Ripple Labs pursues partnerships with traditional financial institutions exploring blockchain-powered remittance systems. The institutional layer adds a tangible narrative to the ongoing technical consolidation, positioning XRP for a structural rebound once macro headwinds fade.
Technical Reversal Scenarios: Key Levels at $2.18 and $2.80 Dictate Next Move
The next major test lies between $2.18 and $2.80, where XRP’s behavior will determine its short-term trajectory. A sustained hold above $2.45 could trigger short-covering and drive retests of $2.60–$2.72, while failure to reclaim those levels risks cascading declines toward $2.18 or even $2.00 in a worst-case scenario. Historical data shows that XRP tends to rebound 18–22% within two weeks following a 7% daily drawdown — a pattern that has repeated five times since 2023. Market depth remains supportive, with major buy walls around $2.30–$2.40, hinting that institutional desks are accumulating at discounted levels. A confirmed breakout above $2.80 would open the path toward $3.00–$3.20, aligning with neckline resistance of its broader head-and-shoulders base formation.
Macro and Whale Behavior Suggest Strategic Accumulation Underway
On-chain analytics highlight quiet but significant whale activity, as addresses holding 10M+ XRP increased holdings by 2.3% month-over-month, coinciding with the current price dip. Historically, similar accumulation phases have preceded multi-week uptrends, with XRP gaining 25–40% over the following month. The broader macro backdrop may reinforce this setup: the Fed’s eventual easing trajectory, improving U.S.–China trade dialogue, and potential ETF-driven liquidity expansion across the crypto market all act as medium-term tailwinds. Despite short-term volatility, long-term accumulation patterns indicate that institutional players view sub-$2.50 levels as strategic entry points rather than exit signals.
Investor Sentiment and Positioning: Balancing Macro Headwinds and Fundamental Strength
While retail sentiment has cooled amid recent pullbacks, professional investors remain cautiously constructive. Options data from Deribit show elevated call-to-put ratios at 1.37, suggesting expectations for a rebound into Q4. Volatility premiums have narrowed, implying that traders anticipate stability after the recent macro shakeout. Still, market confidence hinges on maintaining the $2.30–$2.40 floor — a breach there would trigger broader liquidations and erase short-term bullish structures. Analysts emphasize that the next catalysts for XRP will likely emerge from macro liquidity dynamics rather than internal fundamentals, meaning Fed commentary and U.S. data releases will play outsized roles in shaping near-term price direction.
Verdict: XRP (XRP-USD) Rating – Hold (Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish)
After integrating all market, technical, and institutional data, XRP (XRP-USD) currently warrants a Hold stance. Short-term momentum remains fragile as the token struggles below major moving averages and macro sentiment tilts defensive. However, on-chain strength, expanding institutional adoption, and resilient transactional volume provide a solid foundation for long-term bullish potential. A confirmed breakout above $2.80 would flip bias decisively bullish, targeting $3.20–$3.50, while sustained weakness below $2.30 could expose $2.00–$2.10. For now, XRP consolidates in a high-stakes accumulation zone — a crossroads between macro caution and structural strength — positioning it as one of the most closely watched assets heading into November.
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