XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds Above $2 as $1B ETF Demand and 8-Year Low Supply Fuel $8–$12 Targets

XRP-USD PRICE ANALYSIS: ETF DEMAND, TIGHT SUPPLY AND THE FIGHT AROUND $2.00

XRP-USD is trading around the $2.12–$2.18 zone after breaking and holding above the $2.00 psychological line, with intraday action clustering in a tight $2.128–$2.152 range and a broader weekly band between $1.83 and $2.16. Short-term support sits near $2.01–$2.03 and then $2.06–$2.12, while the first serious resistance is concentrated between $2.15 and $2.30. The breakout through $2.10–$2.12 came with volume running almost 48% above the 7-day average, and a one-minute burst of roughly $23 million in XRP volume confirms institutional-sized flow, not just retail noise. Over seven days, XRP has gained around 12%, and about 4–5% over 30 days, recovering part of the late-2025 drawdown. Market cap is now above $120 billion, positioning XRP as a top-three non-stablecoin asset. With Bitcoin near $93,000 and Ethereum around $3,180, the broader crypto backdrop is risk-on, but XRP has outperformed by roughly 1.8 percentage points during the key breakout session, showing genuine relative strength.

From 2025 Drawdown to 2026 Recovery: Why the Starting Point Matters for XRP-USD

2025 was structurally negative for XRP-USD. Despite an early-year rally of nearly 46%, the token finished the year down about 11.5%, its first annual loss since 2022, as Q4 selling pressure erased earlier gains. That late-year slump flushed weak hands and leveraged positions. The new year move is coming off that washed-out base: in the first days of 2026, XRP has already climbed roughly 15.5%, has reclaimed and held the crucial $2.00 handle, and is trading comfortably above the prior $1.96 pivot and the $2.01–$2.03 support band. The market effectively rebuilt a higher support zone after a capitulation-type quarter. The fact that buyers stepped in aggressively between $1.60–$1.70 and then again around $1.95–$2.10 signals that the downtrend failed to extend even when the tape allowed for further weakness. The current leg is not a complacent breakout from all-time highs; it is a repricing from a cleaned-out base.

Exchange Supply, On-Chain Structure and the Tight XRP-USD Float

Exchange-held XRP balances are sitting at multi-year, even eight-year lows, which is one of the strongest bullish structural inputs for XRP-USD. With less liquid inventory on order books, smaller net spot inflows now generate disproportionate price impact. Any period of sustained buying—rather than isolated big prints—can quickly flip into a squeeze once offers thin between $1.90, $2.00, $2.15 and $2.30. On derivatives venues, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (7-day simple moving average) on a major exchange has risen to roughly 0.99, the highest level since late November. That metric tracks aggressive market buys versus market sells; pushing and holding it above 1.0 would confirm that buyers are dictating the tape. Right now it signals that heavy forced selling from December has faded and the balance of aggression is shifting from negative to neutral-positive. The combination of a thin float and a recovering taker profile does not guarantee upside, but it makes XRP-USD extremely sensitive: moderate and persistent demand is enough to keep pressure on shorts and under-positioned longs.

Spot XRP ETFs: $1B AUM, ~$1.2B Inflows and the Real Driver of XRP-USD

The introduction of spot XRP ETFs changes how capital interacts with XRP-USD. Total AUM above $1 billion is a headline, but the real driver for price is net creations, not static assets. AUM can climb solely because XRP’s price rises; creations measure fresh fiat entering ETFs and force direct spot buying. Since launch in November 2025, U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs have attracted about $1.18 billion in net inflows and roughly $3.7 billion across 2025 products, absorbing close to 1% of circulating supply in just over a month. Single days with more than $13 million of inflows show that these are not cosmetic flows. Mechanically, creations require ETF market makers to source XRP directly, which is impactful in an environment where exchange float is already at multi-year lows. As long as net creations remain positive across multiple sessions instead of appearing as isolated spikes, the ETF complex acts as a structural buyer under XRP-USD, particularly on pullbacks into the $1.88–$2.00 and $2.01–$2.06 zones.

Technical Picture on XRP-USD: Descending Channel, 21-EMA and the $2.30 Trigger

On the 5-day chart, XRP-USD remains inside a descending channel that current technicians classify as a controlled correction rather than a distribution top. This structure cools momentum without signalling a completed blow-off. The key technical checklist for a proper bullish confirmation is clear: first, a daily close above the 21-period exponential moving average; second, a successful retest of that EMA as support; and third, a decisive break above the channel top near $2.30. If XRP-USD completes these steps with strong volume, mapped upside targets cluster in the $3.10–$3.30 zone as the next logical resistance band. Analysts currently assign a 60% probability to an upside break from the channel, 30% to continued range-bound trading inside the channel, and 10% to a full slide back toward $1.00 tied to broader macro risk. The skew is clearly bullish, but the structure is not a guaranteed one-way trade.

Wyckoff Accumulation Roadmap: From Spring to Potential Markup on XRP-USD

Overlaying Wyckoff accumulation on the XRP-USD daily chart, the market appears to have already completed a spring in the $1.60–$1.70 region and then printed a higher test around $1.95–$2.10. The failure of sellers to regain control after that test fits the post-spring recovery phase. In this framework, Phase D begins once XRP reclaims the “creek” near $2.80–$2.90 and holds above it. A first sign of strength is projected around $3.35–$3.45, where upper-range resistance aligns with the next structural ceiling. After that, a last point of support is expected somewhere around $3.05–$3.20, where prior resistance should flip into a durable floor if the markup is genuine. Phase E, the full markup phase, then opens a path towards the $8–$9 area and even a test into the $10 zone. This entire roadmap is level-dependent and invalidates if XRP-USD cannot maintain closes above reclaimed resistance once $2.80–$2.90 is broken. The fact that both the $1.60–$1.70 spring area and the $1.95–$2.10 retest drew in buyers rather than fresh heavy selling keeps this bullish Wyckoff track in play.

Macro, Cross-Asset Context and XRP-USD’s Relative Positioning

The macro environment provides a supportive backdrop for XRP-USD. With Bitcoin near $93,000 and Ethereum trading around $3,170–$3,180, overall crypto sentiment is constructive. XRP’s behaviour, however, goes beyond simple beta exposure: during its push above $2.12, it outperformed the broader market by around 1.8 percentage points, signaling genuine idiosyncratic strength rather than passive participation. Flows into XRP have expanded aggressively, with 2025 inflows into XRP vehicles rising roughly 500% to about $3.7 billion, even as Bitcoin lost momentum late in the year. That shows capital rotation from pure BTC concentration into diversified large-cap alt risk, with XRP at the centre of that shift. This positive picture still sits under macro risk. A sharp deterioration in global risk appetite, tighter liquidity, or fresh regulatory shock could move the tape back toward the 10% scenario where XRP-USD trades closer to $1.00. But with spot ETF infrastructure in place across major assets and no new legal overhang on XRP, the current bias favours ongoing participation in the liquid leaders rather than wholesale de-risking.

Standard Chartered’s Medium-Term Grid: $8, $10.4 and $12.5 Targets for XRP-USD

A large global bank’s digital asset research desk has now laid out explicit medium-term price levels for XRP-USD: roughly $8 in 2026, $10.4 in 2027 and $12.5 in 2028. From the current $2.12–$2.18 zone, the $8 mark implies about 270–280% upside, the $10.4 level around 390%, and the $12.5 level about 480–490% potential appreciation if those targets are reached. These numbers rest on three pillars. First, legal clarity: the SEC case resolved in August 2025, eliminating one of the major structural discounts XRP carried versus peers. Second, institutional adoption: roughly $1.18 billion in net spot ETF inflows and about $3.7 billion in 2025 flows confirm that regulated vehicles are consistently absorbing supply. Third, historical and fractal behaviour: past XRP cycles have delivered multi-hundred-percent surges once deep ranges and legal overhangs cleared, and current technical fractals pointing to the $8–$12 band are consistent with that profile. For serious capital, these levels define a bullish but realistic trajectory; they do not rely on extreme three-digit scenarios.

Key Near-Term Levels and Risk Bands for XRP-USD

Despite the constructive medium-term picture, XRP-USD still must work through several nearby friction zones. The $2.06–$2.16 area is the immediate congestion band, where post-breakout consolidation is taking place. Losing $2.128 on a closing basis would open a path back toward the lower edge of that band and then into the broader $2.01–$2.06 support area. Between $2.17 and $2.25, order books show concentrated sell interest; repeated failures there would encourage short-term traders to fade strength and recycle risk lower. The $2.30 level is decisive: it marks the top of the descending channel and the core trigger for a confirmed breakout toward $3.10–$3.30. Below, the $1.88–$2.00 region blends a critical psychological line with prior distribution, serving as the primary structural support area; a clean break back under $2.00 that is not quickly reclaimed would put $1.96 and then $1.88 back into focus. Only beneath those zones does the low-probability stress path toward $1.00 become relevant, and that scenario is currently framed as a 10% tail risk linked to macro shock rather than XRP-specific failure.

Order Flow, Volume Spikes and What They Signal for XRP-USD Volatility

The one-minute $23 million volume spike in XRP is an important footprint for understanding volatility. Transactions of that size indicate active participation from larger players and confirm that liquidity pockets can be hit with substantial orders. The market has also printed its largest four-hour volume candle in about a month. If those events had been followed by immediate rejection and a swift move under $2.00, they would have looked like blow-off signatures. Instead, XRP-USD is holding above $2.10–$2.12 and consolidating inside a tighter range than December, which points toward absorption of supply rather than exhaustion of demand. In a market with eight-year-low exchange balances, this kind of order-flow pattern means that volatility can expand quickly once another wave of demand appears. The next significant flows will determine whether these large candles become the base of an ongoing expansion phase or the prelude to a failed breakout.

Investment Stance on XRP-USD: Risk/Reward and Verdict

Across all dimensions—price structure, float, ETF flows, on-chain behaviour, macro context and institutional research—the skew on XRP-USD at roughly $2.12–$2.18 is clearly asymmetric. Near-term downside risk in a stress scenario sits in the $1.00–$1.50 area, while upside in a confirmed breakout navigates first toward $3.10–$3.30 and, if ETF inflows, tight supply and Wyckoff dynamics all align, into the $8–$12 band over the coming cycle. With multi-year low exchange balances, roughly $1.18 billion of spot ETF inflows and about $3.7 billion of 2025 inflows, a cleared legal overhang and a technical setup that assigns 60% probability to an upside break versus 10% to a collapse toward $1.00, the data supports a bullish stance. The levels that matter are straightforward: $2.00 must hold on closing bases to keep the constructive structure intact; $2.30 is the breakout trigger toward $3.10–$3.30; $1.88 is the deeper support where structural dip-buying should emerge if the ETF-flow narrative remains intact. Given this configuration, XRP-USD at current levels screens as a buy for investors who size positions correctly and accept high volatility as the price of that upside skew.

That's TradingNEWS