XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Jumps 66% to $2.61 as Bulls Defend $2.63 and Eye Break Above $2.94

Ripple (XRP-USD) Price Forecast: Rebound to $2.61 tests 200-DMA at $2.63 while bulls aim at $2.94 breakout

Opening read on XRP-USD: price, liquidity, and structure

XRP-USD trades near $2.59–$2.64 intraday after a violent two-session snapback from Friday’s capitulation low at $1.58. The recovery reclaimed the $2.61–$2.63 pivot and pressed directly into the 200-day EMA at $2.63, a level that separates cyclical uptrends from distribution phases on most institutional dashboards. Market capitalization rebuilt to roughly $158 billion from the panic trough, adding about $75 billion in value on the rebound, while 24-hour turnover swelled to about $11.5 billion—confirmation that dip-buyers were active and that liquidity returned fast enough to prevent a second-leg cascade. Price is still negotiating overhead supply at $2.77–$2.94, a cluster that includes the 50- and 100-day moving averages and the daily Parabolic SAR flip zone; a daily close above $2.94 is the line that turns defense into offense and unlocks an extension toward $3.10–$3.20

Context from the tape: the “flash crash,” the bounce, and where Bitcoin sits

The weekend liquidation was broad-based and macro-triggered. A tariff shock headline sent risk assets into de-risk mode, with leverage wipes magnifying the slide. Bitcoin hovered back near $114,600–$116,000 after printing five-digits on the spike low; ETH rebounded toward $4,157–$4,220. Those anchor levels matter for XRP-USD because cross-asset flows set the tone for altcoin beta. As those majors stabilized above their respective 200-day EMAs, XRP’s reclaim of $2.63 became plausible; without that cross-support, the coin would likely still be pinned under $2.35. Correlation cuts both ways: sustained BTC bids above the $120,000 shelf and ETH over the $4,800 lid increase the probability that XRP converts $2.63 from a test into a true base

Structure and levels on XRP-USD: what must hold and what must break

The range is clear. Support is defined first at the 200-day EMA and pivot at $2.61–$2.63; lose that on a closing basis and price gravitates to the July trendline and prior reaction shelf at $2.35, with extension risk into the ascending support band near $2.20 if momentum sellers re-engage. Resistance is stacked from $2.72 (symmetrical-triangle ceiling on many daily charts) to $2.77 and into $2.94 where the 50- and 100-day averages converge with the prior breakdown region. A decisive daily settlement north of $2.94 turns the path of least resistance upward toward $3.10, then $3.35, with a stretch-target at $3.66 (the cycle high). Until that close occurs, rallies into $2.77–$2.94 attract supply and will be faded by systematic strategies that sell first touches of declining MAs

Momentum, positioning, and the message from on-chain: SOPR vs. Hodlers

Two readings, two different clocks. The Spent Output Profit Ratio slid to roughly 0.95 after the crash, its weakest print in six months; sub-1.00 indicates coins are moving at a loss and that weak-hand supply may be exhausted. The last time SOPR probed a similarly depressed zone (near 0.92 in early April), XRP-USD advanced from about $1.90 to $2.58 within a month—roughly a 35% pop that aligns with the current roadmap to $3.10–$3.35 if the pattern rhymes. Offsetting that early signal, Hodler Net Position Change cooled from about 163.68 million XRP added on October 2 to roughly 119.16 million by October 12, a 27% pullback in long-term accumulation. When long-tenor wallets step back, impulse rallies often lack follow-through. The read-through is simple: tactical signals say the low-timeframe sellers are spent; strategic money is waiting for cleaner confirmation, likely a close through $2.94 or a retest-and-hold of $2.35 with improving breadth

Trend diagnostics for XRP-USD: moving averages, oscillators, and SAR

All near-term moving averages flipped back to “improving but unconfirmed.” The EMA10 around $2.68 and SMA10 near $2.73 are curling but still overhead, which is why the $2.68–$2.73 micro-zone acts like a speed bump on intraday attempts. The Parabolic SAR bands sit just above the 50-/100-day pair inside $2.77–$2.94, so a clean daily punch through that pocket would simultaneously trip trailing-stop models and force short-covering. Oscillators are neutral-leaning-constructive: daily RSI hovers mid-40s to low-50s, consistent with a market repairing damage; weekly Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold—a zone that historically preceded 90%–486% upside swings in past XRP cycles, but only after price reclaimed the 200-day and printed higher highs. The message is to respect the improving momentum but require the print that converts it into trend

Catalyst tape: partnership headlines, policy swing, and how they map to price

A headline pop saw XRP-USD sprint roughly 50% intraday toward $2.62 on talk of a strategic Ripple partnership; that surge elevated volumes and validated the $2 handle as real demand, not just a gap in the order book. Separately, tariff rhetoric cooled after a Friday shock, allowing risk proxies to rebuild. Those catalysts explain the V-shape in price and the $75 billion market-cap round-trip, but neither eliminates the technical homework: the market still has to absorb supply between $2.77 and $2.94, and that requires either a second fundamental shove or a natural squeeze as shorts misprice the improving base

**Comparables and market breathers: BTC-USD, ETH-USD, and their read-through to XRP-USD

Bitcoin’s defense of its 200-day EMA and its retest of the 50-day quickly reset crypto beta. ETH’s rebound to ~$4,157–$4,220 after defending its own 200-day EMA and 50% retracement restored the broader risk budget. For XRP-USD, that backdrop is essential because altcoin follow-through typically lags until majors reclaim momentum. If BTC clears $120,000–$123,000 and ETH breaks above $4,800–$5,000, the probability that XRP converts $2.94 resistance into a springboard rises materially; if majors stall, the $2.35 retest remains on the table even if SOPR continues to whisper “bottom”

Liquidity, leverage, and the anatomy of the wipeout that XRP-USD survived

The weekend deleveraging erased roughly $19 billion in forced liquidations across digital assets, a reset that shoved funding rates to cycle lows and sliced open interest in half on key venues. That reset is constructive for forward returns because it removes reflexive sellers on small dips and reduces the odds of cascading margin calls. In that context, XRP-USD’s 66% rebound off $1.58 was not a random bounce; it was a mechanically sound snapback in a market where forced sellers ran out of ammunition. As leverage rebuilds, watch whether it accumulates long above or short below the $2.63–$2.94 band—the answer often telegraphs the next $0.40 move

Insiders” in a trustless market: how to proxy insider activity for XRP-USD

There are no 10b5-1 plans or Form-4s in a decentralized asset, so monitoring “insiders” defaults to on-chain behavior of whales, exchange balances, and custodial flows. The Hodler Net Position Change slowdown from 163.68 million XRP added to 119.16 million in the span of ten days is your closest analogue to corporate insider cooling—large, informed cohorts are less aggressive at current prices. Combine that with exchange netflows and SOPR sub-1.00, and the picture reads as follows: smart money didn’t dump into the hole, but it hasn’t chased the first bounce either. A flip in those series—rising long-term net adds concurrent with falling exchange balances—would be the crypto-native version of “insiders are accumulating,” and it would argue for pressing longs through $2.94 rather than fading them

**Scenarios, timings, and levels that matter most for XRP-USD

Base-building continuation favors chop above $2.63 and below $2.94 while moving averages flatten and the triangle apex near $2.72 resolves. A daily close above $2.94, followed by a successful retest that holds $2.77 on a pullback, projects toward $3.10 and then $3.35, the same magnitude move that SOPR history implies. A failure to hold $2.63 on a daily close hands control back to sellers and opens $2.35 quickly, with risk into $2.20 if majors wobble or a second policy shock hits. Time matters: the longer XRP-USD holds above the 200-day while BTC and ETH reclaim higher bands, the greater the chance that stale shorts get squeezed during a headline window and hand bulls the $3 handle

Risk matrix for XRP-USD: what could break the setup and what could supercharge it

Downside risks reside in a relapse below $2.63 with rising exchange balances and continued Hodler net distribution, a combination that tends to convert rebounds into lower highs. Macro shocks—tariff reversals, liquidity fractures, or exchange outages—would amplify that risk. Upside accelerants include a fully detailed commercial partnership that ties XRP throughput to identifiable payment volumes, a clear re-acceleration in long-term wallet adds, and a cross-market thrust led by BTC-USD through $123,000 and ETH-USD through $4,800

Positioning call on XRP-USD: buy, sell, or hold—and where to act

Hold with a bullish bias into confirmation. The price action at $2.61–$2.63 argues that the worst of the forced selling is behind, but the $2.77–$2.94 ceiling still demands respect. For momentum accounts, the higher-probability entry is a daily close above $2.94 with volume expansion and a follow-day hold above $2.90 aiming at $3.10–$3.35. For value-oriented traders willing to stage risk, staggered bids in the $2.35–$2.20 zone align with structural support, provided Bitcoin remains north of its 200-day EMA and ETH holds above $4,000. Invalidations are clean: abandon the bounce thesis on a daily close below $2.20 or if exchange inflows and Hodler net reductions accelerate while price sits under $2.63. Until one of those breakpoints triggers, XRP-USD at $2.59–$2.64 is a hold leaning bullish, with the market asking for one more proof point—a $2.94 close—to green-light the next leg toward $3.10, then $3.35, and a shot at $3.66 if the majors keep carrying the tape.

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