XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Near $1.89: $1.85 Breakdown Risk Versus A $2.40–$3.00 Recovery Path

Ripple XRP-USD Price – Compression At $1.90 With Heavy Downside If $1.85 Breaks

Short-Term Structure On XRP-USD: Range $1.85–$2.05, Support Right Under Price

XRP-USD is sitting around $1.85–$1.91, trading barely 1–2% above a critical support shelf at $1.85–$1.86 that lines up with the base of a rising wedge on the daily chart. That wedge formed after the last sharp sell-off and is now doing the heavy lifting: as long as $1.85 holds on a daily closing basis, the structure allows continued range trading between roughly $1.85 and $2.02–$2.05. The upper band of this range is clear: price has repeatedly stalled between $2.02 and $2.05, with a brief push into the mid-$2 area earlier in January that was sold down almost immediately. That failed extension confirms sellers are still using strength to lighten exposure. On the upside, the first real resistance band is $1.97–$2.00, followed by $2.02–$2.05. A clean sustained close above $2.05 would open path to $2.18–$2.22 and then $2.35–$2.40, near the early-2026 high zone. On the downside, a decisive daily close below $1.85–$1.86 breaks wedge support and technically unlocks a slide first toward $1.75, then the deeper zone around $1.62, with the full wedge breakdown risk projected toward roughly $1.42. From current ~$1.89 pricing, that is roughly a 10–15% first leg lower and up to about 25% if the breakdown accelerates.

Trend Indicators On XRP-USD: Weak Trend, Low Volatility, Market Coiling

Short-term momentum tools confirm there is no strong trend at this moment. ADX sits around 21, classic “no clear trend” territory, with the directional lines only slightly bearish and not widely separated. Williams %R is oversold near short-term support, which tells you selling pressure is fading at these precise levels but does not guarantee a sustained bounce. On-balance volume remains negative and somewhat heavy, showing that spot demand has not returned in size even when price attempts to bounce. ATR has compressed, meaning realized volatility is low and the market is coiling rather than expanding. Put simply: XRP is stuck in a tight band, liquidity is thin, and the next proper move – once the range breaks – is likely to be fast and directional. Until a decisive move above roughly $2.05 or below $1.85, the base case is still range trading between $1.85 and $2.05 with fakeouts on both sides.

Flow Picture For XRP: ETF Outflows, Flat Hodlers, And Whales Quietly Distributing

Flows confirm why every bullish signal is stalling. XRP-linked ETF products have flipped from steady inflows to net outflows. In the week ending January 23, those products saw about $40.5 million leave the space after weeks of net buying. That is not catastrophic by itself, but it is a clear shift: institutional and structured capital is no longer adding risk at these levels. On-chain, the XRP Hodler Net Position Change – the monthly balance shift of longer-term holders – has flattened and turned slightly negative. Around January 20, long-term wallets held roughly 232.1 million XRP; by January 24, that was down to about 231.55 million. The change is small in percentage terms but important directionally. After a supposed bullish divergence, long-term money is not meaningfully accumulating; at best, it is neutral, at worst, it is starting to trim. The clearest signal comes from large wallets. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP cut their balance from around 11.16 billion to about 11.07 billion XRP. That is a reduction of roughly 90 million tokens, which at an XRP price around $1.89 is about $170 million of net distribution. This kind of whale selling explains why the hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart failed and why price is pinned just above support instead of bouncing decisively.

Failed Hidden Bullish Divergence And Rising Wedge: Why A 25% Drawdown Is On The Table

Between December 31 and January 20, XRP-USD printed a textbook hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart: price made a higher low while RSI printed a lower low. Statistically, that pattern often delivers at least a short-term relief rally as selling exhausts and fresh buyers step in. This time, the market barely moved higher. Price action stayed flat to slightly positive, momentum never expanded, and the divergence effectively “failed.” When positive signals fail, the message is straightforward: demand is missing. Combined with the rising wedge structure where price is compressing between higher lows and a flattening top, the risk profile becomes asymmetric. The wedge base at $1.85–$1.86 is now a single point of failure. A daily close below that zone breaks the pattern and activates a measured move that points toward the $1.70 region first and then toward $1.42 as an extended target, which lines up with roughly 25% downside from the $1.89 area. With ETF outflows, flat long-term holders, and whales distributing, the probability of that wedge break cannot be ignored just because price has been quiet in recent sessions.

Medium-Term Structure: Multi-Month Range, Trendline At $2.10, And Legacy Levels From $3.40–$3.66

The larger picture for XRP-USD explains why every rally into the low $2s is being sold. Early 2024 was the base-building phase: price churned around $0.50, repeatedly testing support between $0.45 and $0.55. After the U.S. election, the market flipped from compression to vertical expansion. Between roughly November 2024 and January 2025, XRP ran over 500%, moving from around $0.50 to approximately $3.40. During that move, it carved out a multi-month accumulation band between $1.70 and $1.90. That corridor now acts as a structural support zone in the current cycle. From the $3.40 high in January 2025, a first descending trendline formed and capped upside for over six months. A rebound in March above $3.02 – helped by the headline that XRP was included in a U.S. crypto stockpile – failed at roughly $3.00 and reversed back to around $1.60 in April 2025. Another push in May 2025 toward $2.65 also failed at that line. Only in early July 2025 did price finally break above it, launching the last strong up-leg toward about $3.60 on July 18. That July 18 peak near $3.66 created the second and current descending resistance trendline that has been in control since mid-2025. Two breakout attempts have failed already. The first in late September–early October 2025 pushed XRP up to around $3.10 on October 2 before rejecting and sliding to about $2.20 after the October 10 crash. The second came in early January 2026, with price touching about $2.41 on January 6 before fading back to the current $1.85–$1.90 area. With the line constantly sloping lower, that multi-month trendline resistance is now sitting around $2.10. A decisive daily close above roughly $2.10 is the “simple” but non-negotiable step required to confirm a new medium-term uptrend. Until that break happens, all movement between roughly $1.70 and $2.40 is price oscillating inside a downtrend channel that started after the July 2025 high.

Fundamental And Narrative Drivers: On-Chain Utility, AI Tools, And Macro Headwinds For XRP-USD

Fundamentally, XRP is not dead money; the problem is timing and flows. On-chain, the XRP Ledger is seeing increased use of the native automated market maker (AMM), more payment flows, more tokenized asset activity, and continued work around interoperability, including the XRPL EVM-compatible sidechain intended to attract Ethereum developers. Ripple is also rolling out AI-based tools on XRPL to optimize cross-border payment routing, which, if executed correctly, improves routing efficiency and cost for banks and payment providers building on the network. These elements underpin the “structural recovery” narrative: XRP is not just a speculative ticker, it anchors real payment and tokenization infrastructure. But the price does not respond to fundamentals in isolation. Macro context matters. Bitcoin is around $88,000 and showing signs of buyer fatigue; broader crypto is dealing with rising odds – reportedly over 70% – of a U.S. government shutdown, a Federal Reserve decision window where the market is unsure how aggressive cuts will be, and renewed trade-war noise. In that environment, risk capital becomes more selective. Earlier, headlines suggested XRP could be classified as a financial product in Japan in 2026, and XRP ETFs have been part of the narrative, but the first clear sign of stress is exactly there: roughly $40.5 million of net ETF outflows and flat hodler accumulation. When macro risk rises and capital is rationed, structurally sound assets can still trade lower if they are not the top priority of new flows.

Bearish 2026 Scenario: From $1.89 To Sub-$1 On XRP-USD If Supports And Trendline Both Fail

The most aggressive bearish path for 2026 on XRP-USD requires two technical failures and one macro condition. First, wedge base and local range support at $1.85–$1.86 must break and stay broken on daily closes. That unlocks the 25% downside window toward $1.70 then $1.42. Second, the broader accumulation base at $1.70–$1.90, formed during the 500% run from $0.50 to $3.40, would have to lose its function as higher-timeframe support if selling persists and new demand does not appear near $1.40–$1.50. Third, macro would need to stay risk-off – sustained ETF outflows, flat or negative hodler positioning, and continuous whale distribution – rather than flipping back to risk-on quickly. Under those combined conditions, the market can absolutely push XRP-USD below $1 for a period in 2026, especially if Bitcoin breaks lower at the same time. Some analysts are already projecting XRP trading under $1 this year if $1.80 fails decisively and the broader market loses momentum. That scenario is not the base case today, but the structure makes it viable: lose $1.85, follow through toward $1.42, fail to attract buyers there, and a final washout leg that temporarily prints $0.80–$0.95 is completely plausible.

Bullish 2026 Scenario: From Range-Bound $1.85–$2.05 To A Break Above $2.10 And A Run At $2.40–$3.00

On the other side, a bullish path exists and is simple to outline even if it is not yet confirmed. Step one: defend $1.85–$1.86 on a closing basis, invalidating the wedge breakdown and trapping shorts who are leaning on that level. Step two: reclaim and hold above the short-term resistance band at $1.97–$2.05, ideally on rising volume and improving OBV. That would naturally open a test of $2.18–$2.22 and then $2.35–$2.40. Step three: attack and finally break the descending multi-month trendline now sitting near $2.10 on a daily close, turning it from resistance into support. Once that line is reclaimed, XRP-USD would be out of the post-July-2025 downtrend channel and back in a constructive medium-term structure. In that environment, a move toward the prior key sell zones in the $2.80–$3.00 region would be realistic as long as ETF flows flip back to net inflows, large holders stop distributing and begin absorbing supply, and the broader market rotates back from high-beta narratives into payment and infrastructure plays. But none of that is confirmed today. Right now the tape is range-bound, flows are negative, and the trendline is still unbroken overhead.

Clear Verdict On XRP-USD Right Now – Bearish Short-Term Bias, Overall HOLD, Not A Fresh BUY At $1.89

The data forces a split view. Structurally, XRP still has a real ecosystem, strong historical bases between $1.70 and $1.90, and clear technical triggers for a new uptrend above $2.10. At the same time, near-term flows are negative, whales have dumped roughly 90 million XRP (around $170 million), ETF products are seeing about $40.5 million in weekly outflows, a hidden bullish divergence has already failed, and price is sitting a few cents above a wedge floor at $1.85 that, if broken, unlocks 20–25% downside. With XRP-USD trading around $1.85–$1.90, the immediate risk/reward is not attractive for new capital. Upside to the first meaningful resistance at $2.18–$2.22 is roughly 15–17%, while realistic downside to $1.42 on a wedge failure is about 25%. That skew is not favourable at current levels. Based strictly on the numbers and structures you have, the rational stance is: short-term bias bearish while XRP sits on top of $1.85 and flows remain negative, medium-term view neutral until either $1.42 is tested or $2.10 is broken. Verdict now: HOLD XRP-USD for existing positions if you can tolerate a drawdown toward $1.42, and do not treat the $1.85–$1.90 area as a fresh BUY zone. A cleaner BUY setup appears either on a capitulation leg into the $1.40–$1.50 region with improving flows, or on a confirmed breakout above roughly $2.10 that flips the multi-month trendline and proves that large capital is willing to pay up again.

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