XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Struggles at $2.35 as Bulls Defend $2.00 Support and Death Cross Threatens a Deeper Pullback

XRP (XRP-USD) Fights to Hold $2.35 as Market Volatility Tightens and Whale Flows Slow

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) trades at $2.35, down 3.42% over the last 24 hours, extending a week of consolidation defined by low volatility and cautious sentiment. The token fluctuated between $2.33 and $2.45, maintaining its fragile hold above the $2.00 psychological floor, while the broader crypto market digests a new phase of risk repricing led by Bitcoin (BTC-USD) around $104,000 and Ethereum (ETH-USD) near $3,440. Market capitalization stands at $141.2 billion, with trading volume holding at $4.23 billion, signaling liquidity remains solid despite compressed intraday ranges.

Accumulation Structure Forms Between $2.00 and $2.67 as Traders Wait for Breakout Confirmation

XRP’s price structure is caught between $2.00 support and $2.67 resistance, forming an equilibrium zone that has persisted for weeks. This narrowing band reflects a buildup of liquidity, often preceding explosive moves once volatility resumes. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $2.55 and the 200-day EMA at $2.58 define a technical ceiling that bulls must clear to trigger a sustainable rally. Repeated rejections from $2.55–$2.67 reinforce short-term selling pressure, while consistent daily closes above $2.30 illustrate underlying demand from long-term holders.

Volume indicators confirm this pattern — trading activity dropped 40% week-on-week to about $1.07 billion, yet on-chain wallet creation increased, hinting at quiet accumulation. Traders now interpret the setup as a pre-breakout phase, where liquidity builds on both sides before the next significant directional move.

Network Metrics Show a 40% Spike in Active Addresses and Expanding Ledger Utility

Fundamental strength underpins XRP’s resilience. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) recorded a 40% rise in active addresses, jumping from 19,000 to 32,000 within three days, confirming increased ecosystem engagement. This expansion reflects growing utility in cross-border settlements and decentralized applications built on XRPL, reinforcing its long-term use case even amid weak short-term sentiment.

This on-chain traction coincides with a drop in futures Open Interest to $3.95 billion from $8.36 billion in October, suggesting leveraged traders have exited, leaving spot buyers in control. The OI-weighted funding rate fell to 0.0024% from 0.0084%, a signal that short positions dominate — often a contrarian indicator ahead of rebounds. The market currently prices fear, but network usage points toward sustained activity behind the scenes.

Death Cross Signal Raises Bearish Alarms with Potential Downside Toward $1.25

Technically, XRP faces a critical test as the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA, forming a “death cross” — a traditional bearish signal suggesting the potential for extended downside. Analysts highlight $2.20–$2.30 as the key support cluster; losing that level could confirm a medium-term sell signal targeting $1.90, $1.61, and the Fibonacci 100% extension zone near $1.25, implying up to a 50% correction from current prices.

The pattern mirrors prior setups seen in 2023 and 2024, where similar formations preceded multi-month corrections. Yet, context differs now — retail inflows remain stable, and exchange withdrawal data suggest capital rotation rather than mass exit. The year-over-year gain of +285.9% from $0.62 to $2.35 underscores that, despite technical fragility, XRP remains one of the strongest performers in this cycle.

Institutional and Retail Dynamics Diverge as ETF Speculation Fades

Institutional sentiment has softened following delayed decisions on U.S.-based XRP ETFs. Hedge flows have flattened, while smaller retail wallets continue accumulating near $2.00. Exchanges report rotation toward Solana (SOL-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) as traders chase short-term momentum. Still, XRP’s liquidity profile remains among the top five globally, with average daily turnover exceeding $4 billion, ensuring its ability to absorb volatility.

This divergence shows up in liquidity heatmaps — while institutional open interest trends downward, retail activity expands in smaller denominations. Analysts read this as cyclical redistribution rather than structural weakness, positioning XRP for potential sharp reversals once confidence returns to the derivatives market.

Short-Term Technical Landscape: Compression Before Expansion

From a structural lens, XRP trades within an ascending micro-channel, creating higher lows since the $2.07 test earlier this month. The MACD continues its gradual recovery with a shallow bullish crossover, while the RSI remains near the midpoint at 52, showing neutral momentum. A confirmed breakout above $2.67 with increased volume could open the path toward $3.00–$3.20, while failure at $2.30 risks accelerating a slide toward $2.00 and $1.90.

Market volatility (ATR 14) stays muted at 0.18, signaling that compression persists. Historically, similar low-volatility windows have preceded directional explosions, often aligning with macro triggers such as U.S. CPI data or Federal Reserve comments — both due this week.

Macro and Cross-Asset Context: Crypto Risk Sentiment Remains Divided

Broader market sentiment is split. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 24, deep in “extreme fear” territory, while Bitcoin dominance holds near 57.7%, showing capital rotation back to large caps. The total crypto market cap of $3.62 trillion remains steady, but altcoin liquidity is shrinking as funds concentrate on fewer assets.

XRP’s relative stability in this environment signals strong hands are maintaining exposure even amid macro uncertainty. Correlation with Bitcoin remains at 0.82, meaning XRP still tracks the broader cycle, yet its volatility beta has fallen to 0.61, suggesting it’s now less reactive to BTC swings than earlier this year.

Outlook: XRP Approaches a Decision Zone with Tight Risk Boundaries

The technical equilibrium is now defined: $2.67 marks the breakout trigger, $2.30 the structural pivot, and $2.00 the final defensive line. If volume surges and price closes decisively above $2.67, the probability of a sustained move toward $3.10–$3.20 increases sharply. Conversely, loss of $2.20 could confirm the death cross projection toward $1.25.

Given improving on-chain activity, strong network fundamentals, and exhaustion among leveraged shorts, XRP’s probability skews toward a neutral-to-bullish bias in the short term, though volatility risk remains high.

Verdict: Hold — with bias shifting bullish if XRP closes above $2.67 on daily volume exceeding $4.5B.

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