XRPI and XRPR Rally as XRP-USD Defends $2.00 on $1.2B XRP ETF Inflows

XRPI & XRPR explode higher as XRP-USD holds the $2.00 line

XRPI (NASDAQ: XRPI) closed at $11.48 on Jan 2, up 8.61%, then pushed to $11.76 after-hours, a further 2.44%. Day range was $10.92–$11.57, versus a 52-week range of $10.44–$23.53, on average volume around 514K shares. XRPR (BATS: XRPR) closed at $16.36, up 9.21%, trading between $15.47–$16.36, versus a 52-week band of $14.79–$25.99 and average volume of about 29K. Under the hood, XRP-USD trades around $2.09–$2.10, up roughly 4–5% in 24 hours and about 12% over the last week, with market value near $126–127B and daily volume close to $2.9B. The move is happening while spot XRP ETFs continue to attract capital and XRP price fights to keep $2.00 as a floor after one of its most volatile years on record.

XRP spot ETFs: $1.2B locked, 668M tokens removed from circulation

Spot XRP ETFs have gone from concept to a material demand source. Assets in XRP funds are now around $1.2–1.24B, roughly 1.1–1.2% of XRP’s market cap. At an XRP price near $1.85–$2.10, that implies around 650–680M XRP absorbed into ETF structures and held off the open market. Cumulative net inflows since launch are roughly $1.17–1.20B, with daily flows recently running in the single-digit millions. On Jan 2 alone, spot XRP ETFs took in about $13.6M. Flows are led by products like Canary’s vehicle with about $370M and Grayscale’s product with just over $210–240M in net inflows, while newer issuers add incremental demand. The key point is simple: ETF wrappers are now a consistent buyer of XRP, and they are already absorbing more than a percent of the entire free-float market cap within weeks.

XRPI and XRPR: listed XRP exposure with equity-style liquidity

XRPI and XRPR sit on top of this flow picture as listed ETF wrappers for XRP exposure on NASDAQ and BATS. With XRPI at $11.48 and XRPR at $16.36, both funds are tracking the underlying trend in XRP-USD near $2.09, adjusted for their share structure and fees. XRPI trades with much deeper liquidity, turning over more than 500K shares on a typical day, while XRPR remains a thinner sub-30K average-volume product. Both give equity accounts and traditional broker platforms a clean, “stock-like” line into XRP’s move above $2.00 without any custody or wallet overhead. For a portfolio manager who must stay inside equity or ETF mandates, XRPI and XRPR effectively are the XRP trade.

XRP price history: from $3.66 peak to $0.78 low and back over $2.00

In 2025, XRP-USD printed one of the wildest ranges in large-cap crypto. The token rallied to an all-time high near $3.66 in July, then collapsed to roughly $0.78 in October. From the January 1, 2025 level around $2.08, the July peak represented about a 76% gain; the October low implied a drawdown of almost 80% from the top. By late December, XRP was still down around 7–8% year-to-date, trading under the $2.00 handle, with three straight losing months into year-end. That drawdown happened despite major legal and political tailwinds earlier in the year, including the resolution of the SEC case, classification of XRP as a non-security, and progress on a US Market Structure Bill. The current recovery back above $2.00 has to be read against that backdrop: structurally bullish fundamentals layered on top of scar tissue from a violent H2 reversal.

Regulation and policy: SEC exit, House hearing and Market Structure Bill

The policy tape is turning into a key driver for XRP, XRPI and XRPR. The SEC confirmed the departure of Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, one of the more aggressive voices against spot crypto ETFs. XRP traders are pairing that with a crowded US policy calendar in January. The House Financial Services Committee’s Digital Assets subcommittee is scheduled to convene a hearing around Jan 13, restarting Washington’s 2026 crypto agenda. Parallel to that, the broader Market Structure Bill is expected to move in the Senate after being stalled by the 2025 government shutdown, with the Administration explicitly pushing for comprehensive crypto market rules. The legal ruling that XRP is not a security, combined with a US-chartered banking license for Ripple and a pending bill that should hard-code classification and market structure, is exactly the regulatory scaffolding institutional allocators want before sizing up positions in XRP-linked ETFs.

Flows tug-of-war: exchange supply versus ETF and escrow tightening

Short-term, price action is trading on a tight balance between supply hitting exchanges and ETF demand plus escrow locks. Recent flow data show net inflows of around -$19.5M to exchanges in XRP terms, meaning holders have been sending tokens into venues where they are more likely to be sold. At the same time, US spot XRP ETFs logged about $13.59M of net buying on Jan 2 and have accumulated roughly $1.18B in inflows since launch. On the supply side, Ripple re-locked around 700M XRP into escrow on Jan 4, bringing escrowed balance to about 34.185B XRP, or roughly 34% of the total supply, effectively offline. That combination—ETFs soaking up circulating coins while issuer escrow removes another chunk from near-term float—tightens available supply every time demand spikes. If ETF inflows hold anywhere near current run-rate while exchange netflows normalize toward flat, the path of least resistance is higher prices.

Short-term technicals: $1.90–$2.00 defense, $2.05–$2.25 resistance

Technically, XRP-USD is not in a clean uptrend yet but the downside pressure has eased. On the daily chart, buyers have defended a broad demand zone between roughly $1.65–$1.80 multiple times since October. More recently, price has been basing above the $1.90–$2.00 band; the current trade near $2.01–$2.10 shows that bids are stepping in whenever XRP dips toward that short-term support. Above spot, the structure is still heavy. XRP remains below a declining trendline off the July $3.66 peak, and is capped under a cluster of the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs between about $1.92 and $2.35. The 50-day EMA is sitting near $2.14, with the 200-day around $2.39–$2.41. This EMA block has rejected upside attempts repeatedly since November. On intraday frames, a rebound toward $2.06–$2.08 was faded back to roughly $2.00, with RSI cooling from brief overbought territory and intraday momentum indicators such as Parabolic SAR rolling over. The near-term line in the sand is clear. Hold $1.98–$2.00 and reclaim $2.05–$2.10 on a daily close, and the door opens toward $2.22–$2.25 and then $2.60. Lose $1.90 on volume, and the market will quickly refocus on the $1.75 demand zone.

Medium-term structure: targets at $2.50, $3.66 and $5.00

When you step out to an 8–52 week horizon, fundamentals start to outweigh the still-bearish technical look. Key levels are clean. On the downside, support sits around $1.75, and then $1.50 if policy or macro risk re-prices the entire crypto complex. On the upside, the first target region is around $2.50 on a 1–8 week horizon once price can sustain above the 50- and 200-day EMAs. The next magnet is the old high near $3.66 in an 8–25 week window, where trapped longs from 2025 will likely start to sell into strength. Beyond that, a $5.00 zone over 25–52 weeks is only reachable if three things align. The Market Structure Bill passes with terms that keep XRP attractive for banks and corporates. XRP-spot ETF count and assets expand beyond the current $1.2B base. Global macro stays supportive, with the Fed leaning toward rate cuts rather than another hawkish pivot and the Bank of Japan avoiding an aggressive tightening that would unwind carry trades. The structure today is best described as “cautiously bullish”: the chart still shows a corrective pattern, but the combination of regulation, ETF flows and escrow supply management skews the medium-term path upward, not downward.

XRPI and XRPR vs XRP-USD: how the ETF trade behaves in this setup

For XRPI and XRPR, the implication is direct. These funds are essentially linear wrappers on XRP-USD, adjusted for their fee drag and any minor tracking difference. With XRP around $2.09, XRPI at $11.48 and XRPR at $16.36 are well off their respective 52-week highs of $23.53 and $25.99, but both have broken away from their 52-week lows near $10.44 and $14.79. That tells you the equity crowd is starting to price in the same recovery the spot market is seeing above $2.00, but without any exuberance yet. Liquidity favors XRPI by a wide margin, with average daily dollar volume north of $25–30M versus XRPR’s much thinner tape. For any meaningful allocation, XRPI is the true institutional vehicle; XRPR is still more of a satellite play, suitable only where the smaller float is not a constraint. Classic “insider” activity is far less relevant here than with operating companies. These are ETFs, so there is no management stock grant selling to front-run. The critical activity is creation and redemption by authorized participants and the pace of primary-market share issuance. With spot XRP ETF assets at $1.2B and net inflows over $1.1B in the first month, the growth curve is steep, and XRPI/XRPR stand to ride that issuance wave if demand continues.

Risk map: what can break the XRP ETF bull case

There is no shortage of risk around this trade. On the policy side, the big risk is that the Market Structure Bill stalls in the Senate or gets watered down in a way that slows institutional adoption of crypto generally and XRP specifically. A hawkish turn by the Fed, if inflation proves sticky, would tighten financial conditions and hit all risk assets, usually starting with crypto. A more aggressive Bank of Japan, pushing a “neutral” rate into the 1.5–2.0% range, could trigger a violent unwinding of global yen carry trades, another classic risk-off event. On the micro side, ETF flow could flip. If XRP-spot ETFs swing from cumulative $1.1–1.2B inflows to sustained outflows while exchange netflows remain negative, you get both ETF selling and spot holders hitting bids at the same time. Technically, a clean break of $1.75 with volume would invalidate the current constructive structure and re-open the road back toward $1.50 or lower. For XRPI and XRPR, that would mean a double hit: NAV compression from a falling XRP price and multiple contraction as income-oriented ETF buyers step away from anything perceived as “too volatile” for a yield sleeve.

Verdict on XRPI, XRPR and XRP: bias to Buy with high-volatility caveat

Pulling the pieces together—XRP-USD defending $2.00, ETF assets around $1.2B, cumulative inflows north of $1.1B, escrow re-locks tightening supply, and a US policy backdrop that is moving, not freezing—the risk-reward remains skewed to the upside. Over 8–25 weeks, a move from $2.09 toward the $2.50–$3.66 zone looks more probable than a sustained break below $1.75, assuming policy stays on track and ETF flows do not reverse sharply. In that context, XRPI at $11.48 and XRPR at $16.36 screen as Buys for investors who deliberately want high-beta exposure to the XRP theme via regulated ETFs rather than direct token holdings. The position has to be sized as a volatile satellite, not a core income anchor, but the combination of regulatory clarity, mechanical ETF demand and supply compression justifies a bullish stance. XRP itself, at around $2.09, also leans Buy on a 2026 horizon, with $1.75 as the level where that view would need to be re-examined. This is not personal advice and does not replace your own risk work, but on the data in front of you, XRP and its ETF wrappers XRPI and XRPR remain asymmetrically tilted toward higher prices, not lower.

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