Alphabet Google (GOOG) Stock Price Forecast: Can $300 Stock Ride AI Spend Toward $350?

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG): AI Infrastructure Super-Cycle At $300 – Still A Buy

Where NASDAQ:GOOG Trades Now And How The Tape Looks Today

NASDAQ:GOOG Class C trades around $300.33, down about 2.40% from a previous close at $307.73. Intraday the stock has moved between $297.88 and $309.20, against a 52-week range of $142.66–$328.67 and a market value of roughly $3.62T. On current earnings the market is paying close to 30.0x P/E with a small dividend yield of 0.28%. The equity story is simple: can a company earning roughly $35B per quarter and compounding in the mid-teens justify that multiple while it spends about $91–93B a year on AI infrastructure and data centers. At around $300, the stock reflects strength but still does not discount the full earnings power that this investment cycle can unlock if Cloud and Gemini keep scaling.

Q3 2025: When NASDAQ:GOOG First Exceeded $100 Billion In Quarterly Revenue

The latest reported quarter was the structural break. Alphabet delivered about $102.35B in quarterly revenue, growing roughly 16% year-on-year, and for the first time crossed the $100B threshold in a single quarter. GAAP EPS printed near $2.87 while adjusted EPS was around $3.10, implying ~33–35% earnings growth versus last year. Operating margin reached roughly 32.2%, and net margin also sat in the low 32% range, the highest profitability in about a decade. That means close to $35B profit in a quarter while the company is simultaneously ramping the heaviest capex program in its history. The key point is that NASDAQ:GOOG is not financing AI purely on expectations; it is reinvesting from a highly profitable, still-growing base business.

Google Services: Search, YouTube And Subscriptions As NASDAQ:GOOG’s Cash Engine

Inside the $102.35B quarter, the Google Services segment remains the funding arm of the entire AI strategy. Services revenue stands at about $87.1B, growing nearly 14% versus the prior year. Within this, Google Search & Other generated roughly $56.6B, up around 15% year-on-year, proving that search remains resilient despite generative AI noise. YouTube and subscription lines such as YouTube Premium, YouTube TV and Google One produced about $12.9B in the quarter, putting those recurring revenues on an annualized run-rate close to $50B. Subscriptions, Platforms and Devices are expanding at more than 20% per year and act as a stabilizing cash-flow base against cyclical ad budgets. Global digital ad spend is projected to grow around 7–8% per year into 2028, and NASDAQ:GOOG together with Meta is capturing a disproportionate slice of that growth. Current growth in Search and YouTube is still running ahead of market averages, so Alphabet is not losing share in its key profit pool even while it pivots to AI.

Google Cloud Platform: 34% Growth And A $155 Billion Backlog For NASDAQ:GOOG

The fastest growth in NASDAQ:GOOG now comes from Google Cloud Platform. The latest quarter showed Cloud revenue near $15.16–15.2B, which is about 34% higher than a year earlier and the strongest expansion rate among the three major hyperscalers. More important than the current revenue line is the contracted pipeline: Cloud backlog has risen to roughly $155B, up from about $106B, a jump of close to 46% in one year. That backlog represents contracted sales that have not yet flowed through the income statement and provides multi-year visibility into enterprise demand. Amazon Web Services still commands around 30% global market share by revenue, but in terms of growth and AI-centric workloads, NASDAQ:GOOG is gaining ground. With annualized Cloud revenue near $60B, a 10x sales multiple, in line with premium infrastructure peers, implies Cloud alone is a ~$600B franchise embedded in Alphabet’s current valuation, with clear upside if AI demand accelerates further.

Gemini 3, TPUs And Vertically Integrated AI Give NASDAQ:GOOG A Cost Edge

The AI thesis for NASDAQ:GOOG is not limited to model quality. The differentiation comes from running a fully integrated stack from hardware to consumer surface. Alphabet’s 7th-generation TPU chips are designed specifically for AI and now power a large portion of internal workloads and external AI offerings. Using TPUs instead of relying solely on third-party GPUs shifts gross margins in Alphabet’s favor relative to peers that must buy compute at market prices. Alphabet also owns its data centers, energy contracts, cooling systems and network backbone. That matters in a world where data-center power demand could more than double by 2030 and connection capacity becomes a hard constraint. On the model side, Gemini 3 has introduced stronger reasoning and multi-step planning capabilities and is tightly integrated with Google’s product ecosystem. The new “CC” agent, built on Gemini and embedded into Gmail, Calendar and Drive for a “day ahead” briefing, shows exactly how NASDAQ:GOOG plans to distribute AI: by wiring it into assets that billions already touch every day. Few rivals can match this combination of proprietary silicon, hyperscale infrastructure and unrivaled distribution across Search, Android, YouTube and Workspace.

Other Bets Inside NASDAQ:GOOG: Waymo, SpaceX And Anthropic As Hidden Value

Beneath the headline numbers, NASDAQ:GOOG owns stakes in high-growth assets that are only partially reflected in the market cap. Waymo has moved from prototype to commercial scale, with more than 14 million paid autonomous rides completed in 2025, triple the volume of 2024. A recent funding round valued Waymo about $45B, and current talks point to a potential new raise that could push valuation beyond $100B, with Alphabet expected to participate. For shareholders, this functions as embedded optionality that can be crystallized over time. Alphabet also holds roughly 10% of SpaceX, which private markets value at around $800B, putting Alphabet’s stake in a $40–60B range depending on deal terms and final pricing. On top of that, NASDAQ:GOOG owns about 14% of Anthropic, an AI company now valued near $183B, turning an original investment around $3B into a stake worth approximately $25B. Importantly, much of Anthropic’s capital goes straight back to Alphabet as TPU compute spend. Taken together, Waymo, SpaceX, Anthropic and other “Other Bets” can be conservatively framed as at least $100B of additional value, with credible upside if any of these platforms re-rate or list publicly.

Capex Of $91–93 Billion: Strategic Front-Loading Or Overreach For NASDAQ:GOOG

Alphabet’s capital-expenditure plan for 2025 has been revised upward multiple times. Guidance has moved from about $75B, to around $85B, and now stands in the $91–93B range. Almost all of this spend is directed to AI infrastructure: data centers, power and cooling, and AI hardware such as TPUs and GPUs needed to train and serve Gemini and Cloud workloads. On the surface, $91–93B is an aggressive number that compresses free cash flow and raises questions over returns on capital. However the risk is asymmetric. If NASDAQ:GOOG under-invests, it risks handing Cloud and AI share to competitors right as demand ramps and capacity becomes scarce. Global projections show data-center power demand potentially more than doubling, which means the bottleneck is no longer only chips, but also grid access and physical infrastructure. As long as Cloud revenue grows in the 30%+ range and backlog climbs beyond the current $155B, this capex program looks like deliberate moat building rather than reckless spending. The risk is still real: if AI demand disappoints or pricing erodes faster than expected, Alphabet could be left depreciating tens of billions in assets at lower utilization, which would pressure margins and the valuation multiple.

Regulatory Pressure On NASDAQ:GOOG: From Existential Fears To Managed Headwinds

For years the main bear argument on NASDAQ:GOOG centered on regulation and antitrust risk rather than product weakness. Investors feared losing default search status on iOS, a forced separation of Chrome and Search, or a breakup of the ad stack. The recent U.S. ruling on search remedies removed the worst-case scenarios. Alphabet faces restrictions on default search arrangements and contract durations, but there is no mandated spin-off of Search or Chrome. One side effect is that historic traffic acquisition costs to Apple and Samsung, estimated up to $25B per year, should decline. Even if some high-value queries leak to rivals, Alphabet keeps a larger share of the economics from its existing traffic. The unresolved front is advertising technology, where a more severe remedy could still force divestitures and weaken data synergies across the ad stack. That would not destroy the business but could structurally reset growth and profitability in the most lucrative segment. Regulation therefore remains a material headwind, but the probability of a true “break-up” outcome has dropped. Investors now face a more conventional risk of increased compliance costs and reduced flexibility rather than existential dismantling.

Sum-Of-Parts Valuation For NASDAQ:GOOG Around $300 Per Share

At a share price close to $300.33, NASDAQ:GOOG carries a market capitalization of about $3.6–3.7T, a trailing P/E near 30.0x and a forward multiple in the high 20s. A simplified sum-of-parts view helps clarify how that is distributed. The core Search, YouTube and Services franchises, with margins in the low 30% range and double-digit topline growth, can reasonably support about $3.0T of value at roughly 20x earnings. Google Cloud Platform at an annualized $60B revenue level, growing 34% with a $155B backlog, justifies something around $600B using a 10x sales multiple in line with leading infrastructure peers. The combined value of Waymo, SpaceX, Anthropic and other bets is conservatively at least $100B today based on recent private-market marks. On peer comparison, NASDAQ:GOOG at about 28.1x forward earnings sits just above Microsoft at roughly 26.1x and just below Amazon near 29x, despite growing Cloud faster than both and owning more of its AI stack. Applying a modest premium to the peer average forward P/E, to around 30x, yields a fair-value estimate near $335 per share. More bullish assumptions around Cloud growth and AI monetization can justify target ranges in the $350–360 area. From $300, that implies potential upside of around 12–20%, against downside in a stressed scenario of approximately 20–25% if AI returns disappoint or regulation tightens sharply.

NASDAQ:GOOG Balance Sheet, Capital Returns And Insider Activity

Alphabet operates with a very strong balance sheet, significant net cash and predictable internal cash generation. That position allows NASDAQ:GOOG to absorb $91–93B in annual capex, carry out share repurchases, pay a modest 0.28% dividend and still keep firepower for strategic investments. This flexibility is a competitive advantage in an AI cycle where many smaller players are forced to raise dilutive capital or cut spending. For monitoring insider behavior and corporate activity, the relevant references are the dedicated pages on TradingNews: GOOG insider transactions and the broader GOOG stock profile. At a company of this size, individual insider trades rarely move the share price, but persistent patterns can still indicate management’s confidence in the multi-year plan.

Key Risk Scenarios For NASDAQ:GOOG’s Equity Story

The bullish case on NASDAQ:GOOG depends on several risk factors not breaking the wrong way. One scenario is a capex overshoot where AI demand slows yet Alphabet is still spending close to $90B+ per year. That would leave the company with under-utilized infrastructure, heavier depreciation and weaker returns on capital, which would compress the multiple. A second scenario is AI commoditization. If model performance converges and enterprises ultimately treat AI as a generic utility, pricing power in both Cloud and AI services will erode and narrow the advantage from TPUs and integration. A third risk is aggressive regulatory action in advertising technology, where forced structural changes to the ad stack could dent Alphabet’s data advantage and margin profile. Competition also remains intense. New chip partnerships and capital flows between rivals such as Amazon, Microsoft and model providers like OpenAI and Anthropic can alter Cloud share trajectories and pricing. Finally, a sharp global downturn that cuts digital ad budgets and slows enterprise IT spending would temporarily expose how much of the AI and Cloud capex rests on expectations for sustained macro strength.

Final View: NASDAQ:GOOG At Around $300 Rated As A Buy

Summing up the numbers for NASDAQ:GOOG: quarterly revenue above $102B, GAAP EPS near $2.87 with margins around 32%, Cloud revenue over $15B growing 34% with a $155B backlog, capex guidance of $91–93B aimed at AI infrastructure, equity stakes in Waymo, SpaceX and Anthropic worth at least $100B, and a core Search and YouTube engine that is still expanding in the low- to mid-teens with sector-leading profitability. At roughly $300 per share and about 30x trailing earnings, the stock is not optically cheap but remains attractively valued relative to its growth profile and strategic positioning. On a 12–24 month horizon, the stance is clear: NASDAQ:GOOG is a Buy, with a realistic fair-value range of roughly $335–360, implying 12–20% upside from current levels, balanced against manageable but non-trivial downside risk tied to regulation, capex returns and AI competition.

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