Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge $633M - BTC Price $110k BlackRock, Fidelity Lead Institutional Rotation

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge Amid Market Rotation

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading just below $110,500, pressured by a 1.3% daily decline, but ETF inflows are showing their strongest rebound since early August. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $633.3 million over two consecutive sessions, reversing much of August’s weakness, when the products lost $751 million in net outflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the surge, with IBIT alone capturing $289.8 million in Wednesday’s session and $362.7 million across the two-day window. FBTC added $142.5 million, highlighting the institutional appetite for exposure to BTC at current price levels. This marks a sharp contrast with Ethereum ETFs, which shed $135.3 million over the same period, suggesting rotation away from ETH as investors seek Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.

Redistribution From Long-Term Holders Into ETFs

On-chain data indicates a structural shift in how Bitcoin supply is being absorbed. According to CryptoQuant metrics, long-term holders have been transferring coins into ETFs at an accelerating pace. This redistribution has now occurred three times since 2024, compared with typically only once per cycle in prior years. The shift implies that ETFs are becoming the preferred vehicle for institutional accumulation, with BlackRock’s IBIT already holding over $83 billion in assets under management. Total Bitcoin ETF assets now stand at $126.8 billion, or nearly 6% of BTC’s $2.1 trillion market capitalization. Analysts stress that while redistribution is unusual, it reflects growing reliance on ETF structures to channel long-term capital, potentially stabilizing BTC supply dynamics.

Comparisons With Ethereum ETFs

Ethereum ETFs had dominated inflows earlier in 2025, with August alone seeing $3.87 billion in net inflows compared to Bitcoin’s $751 million in outflows. However, September has started with the tide turning. On Sept. 3, Bitcoin ETFs gained $332.7 million while ETH ETFs lost $135.3 million. Fidelity’s FETH and Bitwise’s ETHW were the largest laggards, shedding $99.2 million and $24.2 million, respectively. Ethereum ETFs now manage $29.21 billion in assets, representing 5.4% of ETH’s $539 billion market cap. The sharp reversal suggests that portfolio managers are rebalancing toward Bitcoin, driven by expectations of macro instability and its stronger positioning as a hedge asset.

Macro Forces Driving ETF Demand

ETF inflows coincide with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as early as its September 17 meeting. Futures markets are pricing in a 95.4% probability of a 25 bps cut, with another 53% chance of a cut on October 29. Lower borrowing costs would boost liquidity, encouraging allocations into risk assets like BTC. Meanwhile, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration—including 50% duties on Indian imports—are expected to stoke inflationary fears. This supports Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, reinforcing institutional demand through ETFs. Options markets confirm the trend: open interest is building heavily at the $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000 strike levels for the September 26 expiry, suggesting traders are positioning for renewed upside momentum.

Metaplanet’s Aggressive Treasury Accumulation

Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet Inc. continues to expand holdings despite market volatility. The firm added 1,009 BTC for $112.2 million during its latest capital raise, bringing total reserves to 20,000 BTC worth approximately $2.2 billion. Even after its stock plunged 60% since mid-June, Metaplanet’s board approved an $884 million fundraising plan, highlighting its long-term conviction. CEO Simon Gerovich reiterated the company’s stance of “never selling” BTC, confirming that accumulation is programmatic and resilient even through drawdowns as steep as 30%. Such corporate treasuries reinforce ETF demand, providing a floor for institutional inflows.

Market Sentiment and Seasonal Risks

Despite the strong ETF rebound, sentiment in derivatives and prediction markets remains cautious. On decentralized prediction market Myriad, 65% of traders expect BTC to fall to $105,000 before reclaiming $125,000. Binance Australia’s investor poll in August showed only one in four believe Bitcoin can surpass $150,000 within six months. Historically, September has been a red month for BTC in eight of the last twelve years, though in recent cycles the seasonal dip shifted to August. Analysts argue ETF inflows will decide whether BTC avoids another “Red September.” Sustained multi-week inflows are necessary to counterbalance August’s heavy outflows, otherwise short-term holders may add selling pressure if spot prices dip below their cost basis.

Valuation and Investment View

With Bitcoin ETFs now commanding over $145 billion in net assets—6.5% of BTC’s total market capitalization—the asset class has firmly institutionalized Bitcoin exposure. BTC trades near $110,000, down 11% from its all-time high of $124,545. Given the inflow rotation from Ethereum and the macro tailwinds of expected Fed easing, the near-term setup looks bullish. However, ETF demand must remain consistent to break through resistance at $120,000 and re-test all-time highs. With a rich pipeline of institutional products and treasury accumulation from firms like Metaplanet, Bitcoin remains underpinned by deep-pocketed buyers. The outlook hinges on whether ETF inflows sustain through September—a decisive factor in determining if BTC avoids seasonal weakness and secures another leg higher.

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