Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds $110K as ETFs, Hash Rate, and ABTC IPO Shift Market

Bitcoin Price Holds Near $110K as Volatility Stirs

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $110,690 after slipping 0.8%, extending a muted start to September that has left the coin nearly 12% below its August high of $124,000. Despite weakness, BTC remains 2% higher month-to-date, a modest rebound after late-summer losses. Volume is thinning, with daily turnover near $58 billion, down 20.7% from prior sessions, underscoring a cautious stance as traders await Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls. Market capitalization holds at $2.2 trillion, with circulating supply at 19.91 million BTC.

Trump-Backed American Bitcoin (NASDAQ:ABTC) Debuts Strongly

The debut of American Bitcoin (ABTC) on the Nasdaq injected fresh attention into the sector. Backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., ABTC surged 16.5% on day one, adding another 5% after-hours to briefly cross a $1.5 billion valuation. The Trump family owns 20% of the miner, with Hut 8 controlling the remainder. The company’s plan to build a sizable Bitcoin treasury and expand mining capacity ties its outlook directly to BTC price volatility. While ABTC surged, BTC itself was unmoved, holding below $111K. The listing raises questions of conflict of interest, given the family’s White House influence, but it also marks accelerating institutionalization of crypto-linked equities.

ETF Inflows Offset Derivatives Market Caution

Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $1.1 billion since the start of September, with $301 million in a single day this week. This contrasts with options market signals where put volumes are rising, reflecting hedging ahead of Friday’s major expiry. The divergence suggests institutional inflows are cushioning spot BTC while derivatives traders prepare for volatility. ETF assets under management have reached $160 billion, nearing gold ETF dominance for the first time, underscoring Bitcoin’s transformation into a mainstream financial product.

Technical Levels: $100K Support, $124.5K Resistance

Charts reveal Bitcoin breaking out of a descending channel last week before failing at $113,000. The current battle is around $110K, where the 100-day moving average aligns with critical support. A decisive close above $112,438 (20-day EMA) would open the path to the 50-day SMA near $115,640 and eventually retest $124,474. Failure to hold $110K risks a drop to $107,255, then $104K, with $100K the must-hold line. RSI readings hover near 45 on the daily, showing subdued momentum. On the 4-hour chart, higher lows suggest bears are weakening, but volume confirmation is still lacking.

Cycle Theory Warns of October Bear Market

Some analysts warn Bitcoin may face a cyclical downturn. The four-year fractal model projects a bear market starting in October, with potential downside to $50,000 by 2026. Joao Wedson of Alphractal highlights parallels with prior cycles, noting BTC could briefly retest $100K before surging to $140K. Others argue institutional adoption—via ETFs, miners, and Layer 2 projects—may break the cycle’s reliability. This debate sharpens the importance of the $100K support: lose it, and the bear case gains traction; defend it, and bulls may target $124.5K to $135K into year-end.

Hash Rate Surge Redefines Network Strength

Bitcoin’s hash rate just surpassed 1 Zetahash per second, a record milestone underscoring miners’ confidence. Rising difficulty levels make profitability tougher, with energy usage projected at 120 terawatt-hours. Despite growing regulatory scrutiny over carbon emissions, the hash rate surge bolsters network security and signals miners’ long-term faith in BTC’s trajectory. Operational costs remain a hurdle, but innovation in high-performance computing and AI-driven mining optimization is reshaping efficiency. Institutional-scale miners are betting on higher future prices even as profitability margins narrow today.

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Policy and Dollar Weakness

The macro backdrop leans supportive. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to 95.63, its weakest correlation with BTC in two years at –0.25. A softening labor market—54,000 ADP jobs in August and jobless claims at 237,000—has markets pricing a 98% probability of a Fed rate cut this month. Lower yields (10-year at 4.182%) reduce opportunity cost for holding BTC, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has tightened: bullion sits at $3,611/oz, and history shows BTC lags gold’s moves by months. If gold’s rally extends toward Goldman Sachs’ $4,500–$5,000 tail scenario, BTC could shadow with a 30–225% climb, implying $135K–$145K potential by early 2026.

Altcoin Moves Reflect Broader Sentiment

Broader crypto followed Bitcoin’s hesitation. Ethereum (ETH-USD) slipped to $4,381, XRP (XRP-USD) eased 1.1% to $2.82, Solana (SOL-USD) dropped 2%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) lost nearly 3%. Meme coins also softened: Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) down 0.8%, $TRUMP token lower by 1.2%. The correlation remains clear—BTC sets the tone. Seasonal September weakness compounds the drag, with BTC historically averaging –3.8% returns this month since 2013.

New Projects Draw Speculative Flows

Even as BTC consolidates, emerging projects are attracting speculative capital. Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a Solana-based Layer 2 designed to speed BTC transactions, has raised $13.7 million in presale at $0.0128 per token. Meanwhile, Pepenode ($PEPENODE), a meme-node staking project, promises APYs above 2,900% and has raised $570K of a $707K target. These illustrate risk appetite rotating into high-yield blockchain experiments while BTC consolidates. Yet the scale of ETF inflows into Bitcoin dwarfs altcoin presales, cementing BTC as the institutional anchor.

That's TradingNEWS