Bitcoin Price Forecast – BTC-USD Tests $90K After Failed Break Above $98K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) pinned near $90K as macro stress collides with exhausted trend

Price structure: rejection at $98K drags BTC-USD back into the 84K–94K cage

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has been forced back into the same $84,000–$94,000 band that dominated late-2024 and early-2025 after a clean failure at the $98,000 resistance cluster. The advance from the December lows stalled just under that $98,000 area, where the upper edge of a rising channel met a knot of higher-timeframe resistance and the 100-day moving average, with the 200-day MA still leaning down around $105,000 and refusing to flip the broader trend fully higher.
From there, BTC-USD rolled over into a high-velocity pullback: price dropped from around $95,000–$96,000 to the low $90,000s, briefly tagging eight-day lows near $90,000, while intraday candles pushed it below the 4-hour 200-period SMA and EMA, signalling that short-term structure had flipped from controlled grind to corrective phase. The market is now oscillating around $90,000–$91,000, right at the lower half of the two-month consolidation box rather than in a clean, directional uptrend.

Key zones: yearly opens, range bands and the real decision levels

The current battlefield is defined by a handful of hard levels that traders are watching tick-by-tick:
The 2025 yearly open sits near $93,500. As long as BTC-USD trades below that price, the prior breakout attempt remains failed rather than validated. Regaining and holding above $93,500 on weekly closes is critical if bulls want the advance to look like a healthy retest instead of a bull trap.
The 2026 yearly open is clustered around $87,000, which many traders expect to be “wicked” at some point because it is rare to see a full year trade without a spike under the opening print. That $87,000 line aligns with the lower part of the current range and acts as psychological and technical pivot.
Daily and weekly ranges reinforce this picture. Resistance is stacked between roughly $94,000 and $95,000, where repeated failures around $94,095–$94,766 and the prior mid-November lows formed a dense supply band. Above that sits the more serious $98,330–$100,762 resistance zone, which capped price from mid-May to November and again repelled the recent push.
Beneath the market, support fans out in layers: a short-term band around $90,559–$89,226, then deeper demand around $84,000–$88,000, and finally the November swing low near $80,619. Those three shelves define whether this pullback stays a controlled reset or degenerates into a trend break.

Intraday view: channel floor at $89K–$90K and an oversold 4-hour tape

On the 4-hour chart, BTC-USD is sliding toward the lower boundary of an ascending short-term channel after reversing from a local peak near $96,000. Price has already revisited the $90,000–$91,000 pocket, which acted as a base during the prior consolidation, and intraday indicators confirm that this drop has stretched momentum: the 4-hour RSI slipped into oversold territory after a string of red candles.
If $89,000–$90,000 holds as a channel floor and range low, the technical script calls for a rebound toward roughly $93,000–$95,000, in line with a “standard” retest of the broken intraday range and the underside of the failed breakout. That zone around the low-mid $90,000s would then decide whether sellers re-impose control or allow a more durable base to form.
A clean break and 4-hour close below ~$89,000 would confirm loss of the short-term up-channel and significantly raise the probability of a deeper sweep toward the $80,000 demand block that launched the last impulsive push. At that point, the narrative flips from “correction inside consolidation” to “market actively probing high-timeframe support.”

Death cross and moving averages: why $86K matters far more than the headline

On the weekly timeframe, BTC-USD has printed a death cross between the 21-week and 50-week moving averages, with the 21-week MA sliding to roughly $89,200 and crossing below the 50-week MA around $90,100. Normally that pattern is treated as a bearish omen, but historically in this asset it has often appeared near cycle basing zones rather than at the top.
The more important reference is the 100-week MA, currently clustered around $86,000. That line sits just under the 2026 yearly open and within the lower part of the $84,000–$94,000 range. Several analysts argue that the $86,000 region, where the weekly 100-period average converges with multi-month support, is the most logical area for a “max pain” flush that still preserves the broader higher-low structure.
Further below, the 200-week MA lingers near $62,400, effectively the ultimate long-term bull-market support in this framework. As long as BTC-USD holds well above that level and defends the $80,000–$86,000 corridor, the high-timeframe trend can be labelled as corrective but intact, even if weekly momentum looks fragile.

Downside extension risk: reopening the $80K and $58K–$62K debate

Despite the constructive reading on the long-term averages, not all outlooks converge. One of the more aggressive bearish roadmaps targets a drop into the $58,000–$62,000 zone, a region last traded in October 2024. That view rests on three pillars: the weekly death cross, the failure to hold above the $98,000 breakout zone, and the idea that major cycle lows often retest or undercut prior consolidation shelves.
From that perspective, the path could look like this: lose $89,000–$90,000, slide toward the $84,000–$88,000 range, then, if macro pressure persists, extend into the low $80,000s and potentially the $58,000–$62,000 demand block. Even the proponent of this scenario concedes that such calls are probabilistic at best and stresses that being wrong half the time comes with the territory.
Technically, that deeper flush becomes a serious probability only if BTC-USD breaks decisively through the $83,871–$80,619 support zone. Until then, the tape still fits a pattern of large, choppy consolidation following an extended prior bull leg and a harsh late-2025 correction.

Derivatives and ETF flows: volatility spikes, but structural demand refuses to vanish

On the derivatives side, the latest downdraft has already done visible damage. Across major venues, liquidations over recent sessions have ranged from more than $360 million in one dataset to about $865 million in another, showing forced unwinds both on the breakout failure and during the macro news shock. Excess leverage has been flushed from the system, particularly on aggressive long positions that chased the push above $94,000–$95,000.
Options markets are signalling that traders expect more turbulence. The 25-delta skew has been grinding lower, which means downside puts are being bid up relative to calls as investors pay for protection against further drops. That pattern fits a regime where volatility is viewed as a feature, not a short-term anomaly.
Yet the structural picture behind the derivatives noise remains more constructive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded some of the strongest net inflows in the past three months, even as price has chopped and corrected. Flows have tended to re-enter on strength and pare back more gradually on weakness, consistent with steady accumulation rather than manic FOMO. Together with reduced open interest and more measured positioning, this pattern argues that the market is resetting leverage rather than abandoning the asset.

On-chain positioning: short-term pain, slow transfer to stronger hands

On-chain metrics reinforce the idea of a market grinding through a late-stage correction. The short-term holder SOPR (spent output profit ratio) measured on a 30-day EMA basis has spent an extended period below 1, confirming that coins held briefly are being sold at a loss on average. Short-term holders have been realising losses repeatedly rather than defending higher prices.
That behaviour usually characterizes a positioning reset: weak hands exit, speculative leverage is unwound, and coins migrate to entities with a longer time horizon. Meanwhile, price has so far managed to hold above the key higher-timeframe supports outlined earlier, which suggests that stronger hands are willing to absorb this selling rather than standing aside.
Overlaying this with order-book and whale data, the pattern is clear: large, sophisticated players continue to accumulate into stress across major networks, while retail addresses and short-term entrants are more heavily represented in the selling. That divergence is typical of late-correction phases that eventually fuel the next impulsive leg once selling pressure exhausts.

Macro stress: Greenland tariffs, trade war risk and the bid for gold

The latest leg lower in BTC-USD did not occur in isolation. Global markets were already on edge as the U.S. administration escalated its push to secure control over Greenland, tying trade policy directly to geopolitical ambitions. Over the weekend, Washington announced that eight European allies would face 10% tariffs from 1 February, rising to 25% from 1 June, unless they dropped opposition to a Greenland deal.
That move ignited fears of a renewed transatlantic trade war. European officials branded the threats “unacceptable” and began discussing the use of their strongest counter-weapon, the Anti-Coercion Instrument, designed to retaliate against economic pressure. Parallel commentary from U.S. officials framed the Greenland bid as a strategic necessity, adding more uncertainty around how aggressively both sides are willing to escalate.
Risk assets reacted in textbook fashion. U.S. equity futures for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 pointed to drops of roughly 1.3%–1.9% before the cash open, and early trading saw the Dow down around 700–725 points, the S&P 500 off around 1.3%–1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite sliding 1.5%–1.7%. The Cboe Volatility Index jumped above 20, its highest level of the year, telegraphing a sharp risk-off turn.
Gold and silver absorbed the inflows that might otherwise have partially supported BTC-USD. Gold spiked above $4,700–$4,750 per ounce, printing fresh all-time highs, while silver surged toward $95–$100 per ounce. In other words, the hedge bid that sometimes favours Bitcoin in periods of stress chose hard commodities instead this time, leaving crypto to trade more like a levered risk asset alongside equities than like digital gold.

Global liquidity shock: Japan’s bond market and the 3.91% JGB warning

Beyond the headline drama around tariffs and Greenland, a quieter but arguably more dangerous shock is building in global rates. Japan’s 30-year government bond yield has ripped higher by roughly 31 basis points to around 3.91%, marking a level not seen in more than two decades and signalling that one of the world’s most important liquidity anchors is starting to fracture.
For years, Japanese bonds provided ultra-cheap funding for carry trades and overseas investments. As long-dated JGB yields surge, that cheap funding source erodes, encouraging capital to be repatriated and forcing global investors to rethink risk exposure. Equity benchmarks like the Nikkei 225 have already responded with drops around 2.4%–2.5%, and U.S. stock futures have simultaneously weakened.
Higher Japanese yields also bleed into U.S. and European curves. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has pushed back toward 4.28%–4.29%, revisiting levels last seen in early autumn, while longer-dated European bonds have followed with smaller but meaningful moves. The message is consistent: global liquidity is tightening, and that environment traditionally hits high-beta assets such as growth equities and crypto hardest.
In that context, the slide of BTC-USD below $91,000 is part of a broader repricing where cash and hard assets like gold are preferred over long-duration, speculative risk, at least in the short run.

Institutional behaviour: large treasuries keep adding BTC through the noise

Despite the turbulence, large corporate and institutional actors are not walking away. One prominent listed company focused on digital assets recently disclosed the purchase of 22,305 Bitcoin in a single week for about $2.13 billion, funded via equity and preferred instruments. That transaction lifted its total holdings to roughly 709,715 BTC, accumulated for close to $54 billion in aggregate terms.
The associated equity sold off by about 5% as BTC-USD dipped below $91,000, showing that public-market investors still punish mark-to-market pain. But the treasury strategy itself remains unshaken, and the size of these flows demonstrates ongoing high-conviction demand from entities that operate on a multi-year horizon rather than trading weekly swings.
More broadly, institutional positioning across ETNs, futures and custody structures continues to drift higher over time, even if flows wax and wane week by week. Regulatory initiatives aimed at clarifying crypto oversight are slowly removing friction for traditional capital. That is why, even with sentiment bruised and macro headlines hostile, the structural buyer base for BTC-USD still looks stronger than it did in earlier cycles.

Scenario map: bearish break versus constructive reset for Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

From the current ~$90,000–$91,000 zone, two core paths dominate the risk map.
In the bearish extension scenario, BTC-USD fails to defend $89,000–$90,000, slides toward the $84,000–$88,000 lower range and eventually pierces the $83,871–$80,619 support complex. That would validate the weekly death cross as more than noise and bring the $80,000 demand block and potentially the $58,000–$62,000 area back into play. ETF flows would likely soften, options skew would remain heavily put-biased, and volatility would stay elevated as macro risks around tariffs, Japan and global liquidity compound.
In the constructive reset scenario, BTC-USD either holds the $89,000–$90,000 channel floor or briefly wicks into the $86,000–$87,000 band near the 100-week MA and 2026 open before reversing. Loss-making short-term holders would capitulate, but spot ETF inflows would remain resilient, whales and corporates would continue adding on weakness, and the on-chain transfer from fragile to strong hands would persist. In that case, a move back above $93,500 followed by a sustained reclaim of $94,000–$95,000 would open another attempt at the $98,330–$100,762 resistance zone, with $107,461 (the 11 November high) as the level that would finally put bulls fully in charge again.
Which path dominates depends less on a single headline and more on the interaction between global rates, trade policy, and ETF-driven demand. What is clear is that the days of low-volatility drift are over for now; the tape is back in a high-energy regime.

Verdict on Bitcoin (BTC-USD): stance, bias and risk label

Taking the full set of technical, macro, derivatives and on-chain signals together, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) sits in a high-risk, high-volatility corrective phase, but not in a confirmed long-term breakdown. Price is below key resistance at $94,000–$95,000 and under heavy macro pressure, yet it remains above the crucial $80,000–$86,000 structural support block, with ETF inflows and large-holder accumulation still visible.
Short-term, the bias is bearish to cautiously negative while BTC-USD trades below $94,000 and especially below the $94,095–$94,766 cap. As long as that band rejects every bounce, rallies are more likely to be sold than chased, and the market remains vulnerable to deeper tests toward $86,000 and potentially $80,000 if macro shocks intensify.
Medium-term, the picture shifts to neutral with a constructive tilt as long as the $80,619 late-November low and the 100-week MA near $86,000 hold. The combination of ongoing ETF demand, on-chain capitulation from weak hands, and the repeated defence of the broader consolidation range argues that this phase is more likely a reset inside an ongoing cycle than the start of a secular collapse.
Framed purely in directional terms: at current levels around $90,000–$91,000, BTC-USD looks like a high-volatility Hold with a medium-term bullish bias, not a clean Buy at any price and definitely not a Sell into outright panic, as long as the $80,000–$86,000 backbone remains intact. A decisive weekly close below that backbone would downgrade the stance toward bearish / Sell, while a sustained reclaim and hold above $98,000–$101,000 would upgrade it toward a clearer Buy, with the understanding that every move in this band now comes with macro-driven whiplash built in.

That's TradingNEWS