Bitcoin Price Forecast: Targets of $133,300 in Sight as Support Holds at $114,000

Historic July Close Ignites Uptrend Signal

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ended July at $115,800 on Coinbase, marking its highest monthly close ever and eclipsing the previous $115,000 barrier for the first time. Despite a late‐month dip driven by macro volatility, bulls secured a definitive monthly candle above this level, confirming buyer conviction. The $115,000 threshold has now shifted from resistance to support, setting the stage for renewed upside momentum in August.

CME Gap Fill to $114,000 and the $104K Warning

On Friday, BTC-USD dipped to $114,322 on Bitstamp, completely filling the July gap left in CME Bitcoin futures. Historically, CME gaps are filled within days to weeks of reopening, and this gap closure often precedes a strong rebound. However, failure to reclaim $116,000 could invite further declines toward $111,800 or even a retest of $104,000, as flagged by trader Cipher X, who pointed to that level as the next downside target if bulls cannot defend above the gap.

Post-Halving August Dynamics and Historical Returns

August has been modest on average, with mean gains of 1.61% since inception—implying an average close around $117,600 if history holds. Yet, in post-halving years, performance has been exceptional: +30% in August 2013, +65% in 2017, and +14% in 2021. These instances suggest BTC-USD could surge to $132,000–$141,000 this month, driven by reduced new supply and renewed investor enthusiasm.

Technical Pattern Breakouts and $172K Measured Move

Chartist Mags identifies an inverse head-and-shoulders formation on the weekly timeframe, with a neckline near $115,000. The measured move from that pattern projects a target of $172,000, representing a 50% rally from current levels. A decisive close above $121,000 would confirm pattern completion and accelerate long-term uptrend continuation.

Macro Catalysts: Fed Bets, Tariffs and Risk Appetite

July’s US nonfarm payrolls added just 73,000 jobs versus a 100,000 forecast, pushing CME Fed-funds futures to price a 66% chance of a September rate cut. Concurrently, the Trump administration imposed 10–41% tariffs on over 50 countries, briefly denting risk assets. Bitcoin’s sensitivity to yield expectations and geopolitical risk means these developments could amplify volatility. A Fed pivot toward easing would bolster BTC-USD by reducing real yields and driving institutional inflows.

On-Chain Metrics: MVRV, SOPR and Accumulation Behavior

On-chain indicators signal accumulation. The Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio sits at 2.1, below the long-term average of 3.0, indicating shorts are undervalued relative to realized value. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for short-term coins remains above 1.1, suggesting holders are still taking modest profits without capitulating. Address growth and exchange outflows also point to sustained accumulation by both retail and institutional participants.

Liquidations, Funding Rates and Short Squeeze Potential

Over the past 24 hours, approximately 158,000 traders were liquidated for $630 million, predominantly long positions above $120,000. Meanwhile, funding rates across major perpetual swaps have turned slightly negative at –0.01% per eight hours, signaling that shorts are paying longs and creating a short‐squeeze setup. A rapid liquidation of levered shorts at $120,000–$122,000 could propel BTC-USD toward $130,000 in a matter of hours.

Price Forecasts from Leading Models

• CoinCodex projects a 12.5% rise by August 28, targeting $133,300.

• Wallet Investor anticipates a $129,490 peak by month‐end.

• DigitalCoinPrice sees a more conservative 1.24% uptick to $119,860 by mid-August.
  These divergent forecasts underscore both bullish potential and short-term caution zones near $112,000–$113,800.

Positioning Guidance: BUY BTC-USD

Given the record monthly close at $115,800, pattern breakouts, favorable post-halving seasonality and a potential Fed rate cut, BTC-USD exhibits a strong asymmetric risk-reward profile. Defensive dips toward $114,000 or $112,000 represent attractive entry points. We rate Bitcoin as a Buy, with a near-term target of $133,000 and longer-term measured objectives up to $172,000.

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