Bitcoin Price Slides to $113,155 Amid ETF Slowdown and Volatility Collapse

Bitcoin Price Sinks to $113,155 as ETF Inflows Falter

Bitcoin’s value pulled back sharply on August 5, dropping 1.6% to $113,155, down from a mid-July peak of $123,236. Over the previous 24 hours, the cryptocurrency oscillated between $113,941 and $115,591, with on-chain volume totaling $34.7 billion and its market capitalization holding near $2.28 trillion. The decline coincided with a slowdown in institutional buying via Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had been a primary source of demand since their launch earlier this year.

Bear Flag Pattern Emerges on 4-Hour Chart

On the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin etched out a textbook bear-flag formation following a rejection at $118,904 and a rapid sell-off to $111,919. Price bounced back modestly toward $115,200, but trading volume remained subdued, reinforcing the pattern’s bearish implications. Technical resistance now clusters between $115,700 and $116,500, while a breakout above $118,000 would be required to invalidate the short-term downtrend.

Momentum Indicators Signal Stall in Upward Drive

Momentum oscillators paint a picture of indecision. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49—neither overbought nor oversold—while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned negative, indicating waning bullish momentum. Short-term exponential moving averages (10-, 20- and 30-period EMAs) lie above the current price, signaling immediate selling pressure, whereas longer-term EMAs (50-, 100- and 200-period) remain beneath, suggesting the overarching uptrend is unbroken so long as price holds above key support levels.

Derivatives Markets See Volatility Collapse to Two-Year Lows

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has plummeted to its lowest reading since early 2023, driving options premiums on both calls and puts to multi-year lows. Open interest across leading crypto options exchanges has stalled near six-month troughs, reflecting a pronounced retreat of speculative activity. Analysts caution that this “volatility vacuum” may amplify price swings when fresh catalysts—such as regulatory announcements or macro shocks—finally arrive, due to thinner liquidity.

Crypto-Equity Proxies Undergo Valuation Reset

Equities tethered to Bitcoin have endured sweeping valuation adjustments. Coinbase (COIN) shares dropped 5%, trading around 5% below their Bitcoin-adjusted fair-value model after their premium evaporated amid flagging trading volumes. Circle (CRCL), which issues the USDC stablecoin, still trades at a lofty 153× forward P/E, while MetaStrat (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet have sunk over 50% from June highs. Overall spot trading throughput declined from $299 billion mid-July to roughly $110–$138 billion, undermining the revenue outlook for these platforms.

Macro Backdrop: Fed Rate-Cut Odds Drive Sentiment

Money markets assign an 88% probability of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in September, a dynamic that traditionally bolsters risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Strategists at TeraHash forecast Bitcoin could traverse a $130,000–$150,000 range by year-end, assuming sustained ETF inflows and a dovish Fed pivot. However, with U.S. inflation still above target and policymakers debating its trajectory, any policy easing may be delayed—prolonging uncertainty for digital-asset investors.

On-Chain Metrics Offer Mixed Signals

Key blockchain indicators diverge on Bitcoin’s next leg. The MVRV Z-Score hovers near zero, implying fair valuation relative to historical norms, while Value Days Destroyed have ticked upward, indicating movement by long-term holders. Order-book heatmaps reveal robust bid clusters under $114,000, but an absence of large sell walls—suggesting institutional players remain patient, allowing retail traders to test consolidation levels without triggering mass liquidations.

Retail Flows Pivot to High-Velocity Altcoin Presales

As Bitcoin languishes under $115,000, speculative retail capital has migrated toward faster-moving altcoin presales. Maxi Doge’s “no stop-loss, only pump” narrative propelled its presale through viral channels, while Bitcoin Hyper—a nascent Layer-2 ecosystem—has amassed over $7 million by promising BTC-native DeFi utility. These narratives underscore retail traders’ readiness to reallocate from slow-moving majors to meme and infrastructure plays offering rapid upside.

Regulatory & Infrastructure Shifts Widen Institutional Access

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently authorized spot Bitcoin trading on regulated futures exchanges, potentially broadening institutional entry points once operational details crystallize. Coinbase’s Base network suffered a brief outage, highlighting persistent Layer-2 scalability challenges amid surging usage. Meanwhile, BTQ Technologies and QBits unveiled plans for quantum-secure custody solutions, positioning themselves ahead of emerging security threats, and Blockstream’s vice president departure to launch a specialized Bitcoin-intelligence platform signals ongoing maturation of sector expertise.

Strategic Positioning: Hold Core, Await Decisive Breakouts

In light of mixed technical signals, subdued institutional flows, and macro ambiguity, maintaining core Bitcoin allocations is prudent. A sustained break above $116,500 on heavy volume would justify a tactical Buy to capture potential upside toward $118,000 and beyond. Conversely, a decisive drop below $113,000 would signal a Sell threshold, with further retracement risk down to $108,000. Until one of these inflection points is breached, preserving existing positions and watching for confirmation aligns best with the current data-driven landscape.

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